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Live prediction market probabilities on climate policy, COP outcomes, renewables targets, and emissions commitments. Sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi.
All available climate prediction markets, those priced on more than one venue first. Tap any market for its price on every venue we track and where to trade it.
No climate markets are listed on the venues we read right now. The markets we track are on the home page.
Polymarket's Ebola pandemic contract sits heavily on 'No' as of August 2026, even as the WHO says the current outbreak is on track to become the deadliest ever recorded.
With hours left before it resolves, Polymarket's London peak-temperature ladder has 25°C at 62% and the whole board summing to 103. What that overround is telling you.
As Italians duck into supermarkets and take night tours to escape the heat, Polymarket's 2026 hottest-month-on-record contract sits at 93%. Here's what it tracks.
The minimum Arctic sea ice contract on polymarket.com has the sub-4m sq km outcome leading at around 30%. Here's what the market actually measures.
A record Paris heatwave coincides with a Polymarket contract pricing the day's peak temperature at Le Bourget. Here is what the ladder is actually saying.
Polymarket is running a 2026 contract on whether a meteor will explode in Earth's atmosphere with at least 5 kilotons of energy. Here is what it tracks.
Climate prediction markets cover questions about emissions targets, COP outcomes, renewable build-out, climate legislation, and weather-linked policy. They sit at the intersection of policy and physics: contracts on whether a specific COP delivers a binding agreement, whether the US passes a carbon pricing bill, whether China hits a renewable installation target. Climate has been a small but recurring category on Polymarket through 2024 and 2025, particularly in the weeks leading up to each COP summit.
Climate policy outcomes are notoriously hard to forecast. Pledges get made, watered down in negotiation, then partially funded or delayed. Markets cut through the rhetoric by pricing actual probabilities. What's the chance this commitment becomes law? Hedge funds, ESG analysts, and climate research desks watch prediction market probabilities to triangulate against policy briefings. A 30% probability tells you something specific. A press release does not.