Live prediction market probabilities on climate policy, COP outcomes, renewables targets, and emissions commitments. Sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi.
All available climate prediction markets, sorted by volume. Click any market to trade directly on the source platform.
Polymarket and Kalshi haven't listed any climate prediction markets yet. Get notified when they do.
Climate prediction markets cover questions about emissions targets, COP outcomes, renewable build-out, climate legislation, and weather-linked policy. They sit at the intersection of policy and physics — contracts on whether a specific COP delivers a binding agreement, whether the US passes a carbon pricing bill, whether China hits a renewable installation target. Climate has been a small but recurring category on Polymarket through 2024 and 2025, particularly in the weeks leading up to each COP summit.
Climate policy outcomes are notoriously hard to forecast. Pledges get made, watered down in negotiation, then partially funded or delayed. Markets cut through the rhetoric by pricing actual probabilities — what's the chance this commitment becomes law? Hedge funds, ESG analysts, and climate research desks watch prediction market probabilities to triangulate against policy briefings. A 30% probability tells you something specific. A press release does not.
Polymarket and Kalshi haven't currently listed any contracts that fall under our climate category. Some climate-related questions sit elsewhere on the platforms: carbon pricing legislation under politics, EV mandates under economy, international climate agreements under geopolitics. When the platforms list explicitly climate-tagged contracts — typically around COP, IPCC reports, or major climate legislation — they'll appear here.
Expect the climate catalog to grow around COP summits (annual, late November), IPCC report releases, major UN climate weeks, and significant national legislation in the US, EU, and China. The 2025/26 cycle saw Polymarket list COP-specific contracts about a month before each conference. Outside these windows, climate contracts are thin on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Carbon pricing bills, renewable mandates, and weather-derivative-style markets tend to show up as politics or economy contracts in the meantime.
Polymarket and Kalshi haven't listed climate-specific contracts at present. Many adjacent questions appear under politics or economy instead — carbon pricing legislation, EV mandates, energy policy. Climate-tagged contracts typically appear in the run-up to COP summits and major climate legislation cycles.
Check our politics and economy pages — climate legislation and carbon pricing markets often live there. Polymarket's broader policy section sometimes has weather and renewable contracts during active news cycles. Kalshi has occasionally listed weather-linked contracts under its economic data category.