Live prediction market probabilities on global affairs — diplomacy, conflicts, sanctions, treaties, and international events. Sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi.
All available geopolitics prediction markets, sorted by volume. Click any market to trade directly on the source platform.
Polymarket and Kalshi haven't listed any geopolitics prediction markets yet. Get notified when they do.
Geopolitics prediction markets cover questions about diplomacy, conflict, sanctions, treaties, ceasefires, and election outcomes that ripple across borders. Think contracts on whether a UN ceasefire holds for 90 days, whether the US imposes secondary sanctions on a specific country by year-end, or whether a foreign minister survives a confidence vote. These are some of the most-traded questions on Polymarket during major international events — and some of the slowest-moving when nothing is happening.
Geopolitical questions resist polling. Diplomats don't fill out surveys; ceasefire holds and sanction packages depend on closed-door negotiations. Prediction markets aggregate the views of analysts, journalists, traders, and people who follow these processes for a living. The result is a probability that updates in real time — useful as a sanity check against headline-driven analysis. Polymarket's geopolitics contracts have moved within minutes of a Reuters wire breaking.
Polymarket and Kalshi haven't currently listed any contracts that fall cleanly into our geopolitics category. Many international questions are categorized under politics or economy on the source platforms — a contract on the next French election lives under politics, a sanctions package under economy. Genuinely geopolitics-tagged contracts (UN votes, ceasefire terms, treaty ratification deadlines) appear less often than the other categories. As they get listed, they'll show up here automatically.
This category activates around major international events: UN General Assembly week in September, NATO summits, G20 meetings, peace negotiations, and elections in countries with regional impact (Israel, Turkey, Brazil, India). Sanctions deadlines and treaty ratification windows also drive listings. Outside these windows, contracts are sparse — geopolitics is one of the most event-driven categories on prediction markets. For now, your best bet is to check Polymarket and Kalshi directly for adjacent contracts under their politics and policy sections.
Polymarket and Kalshi categorize many international questions under politics or economy, so they appear on those pages rather than here. Outside major international events, geopolitical-specific contracts are also genuinely rare on both platforms. Expect listings to appear around UN summits, NATO meetings, sanctions deadlines, and major foreign elections.
Polymarket's World section often has the broadest selection of international affairs contracts. Kalshi's Regulation and World categories cover sanctions, trade, and foreign policy. Both platforms are linked from each iPredicta page — you can compare what's listed where in a few clicks.