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Live prediction market probabilities on global affairs: diplomacy, conflicts, sanctions, treaties, and international events. Sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi.
All available geopolitics prediction markets, those priced on more than one venue first. Tap any market for its price on every venue we track and where to trade it.
No geopolitics markets are listed on the venues we read right now. The markets we track are on the home page.
Polymarket prices US recognition of Maria Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader at about 3% before the end of 2026. The resolution bar and the incumbency explain the number.
Russia's Supreme Court barred Yabloko on 10 August 2026. A Polymarket contract on whether the ban is 'effective' by 17 September sits at a heavy lean, but the appeal is live.
Polymarket's contract on a Ukraine-Russia deal before the end of 2026 sits at 19% Yes, barely moved by this week's strikes on Kyiv. What the resolution text actually requires, and why escalation is not reading as diplomacy.
German prosecutors have charged a Ukrainian over the Nord Stream blasts. Polymarket's contract on the pipeline restarting by 2027 sits near zero. Here's why.
Venezuelans describe a mismanaged government response after twin earthquakes. The Polymarket contract on who runs Venezuela at end-2026 has barely flinched.
Putin says US negotiators will return to Moscow once Iran cools. Polymarket's Ukraine-Russia peace deal contract by end-2026 still prices No at 74%.
Geopolitics prediction markets cover questions about diplomacy, conflict, sanctions, treaties, ceasefires, and election outcomes that ripple across borders. Think contracts on whether a UN ceasefire holds for 90 days, whether the US imposes secondary sanctions on a specific country by year-end, or whether a foreign minister survives a confidence vote. These are some of the most-traded questions on Polymarket during major international events, and some of the slowest-moving when nothing is happening.
Geopolitical questions resist polling. Diplomats don't fill out surveys; ceasefire holds and sanction packages depend on closed-door negotiations. Prediction markets aggregate the views of analysts, journalists, traders, and people who follow these processes for a living. The result is a probability that updates in real time, useful as a sanity check against headline-driven analysis. Polymarket's geopolitics contracts have moved within minutes of a Reuters wire breaking.
Polymarket's World section often has the broadest selection of international affairs contracts. Kalshi's Regulation and World categories cover sanctions, trade, and foreign policy. Both platforms are linked from each iPredicta page, so you can compare what's listed where in a few clicks.