Live prediction market odds on AI policy, space exploration, and emerging technology breakthroughs.
All available tech prediction markets, sorted by volume. Click any market to trade directly on the source platform.
Tech prediction markets cover technology policy, space exploration, AI regulation, and major product launches. They're a relatively new category — Polymarket and Kalshi started listing tech contracts seriously in late 2024 as the AI policy debate sharpened and SpaceX's launch cadence picked up. Volume is thinner than politics or macro categories, but the contracts that do get listed often have outsized informational value: a $1M market on whether Congress passes AI legislation tells you something specific about Beltway expectations.
Two tech markets are live. Polymarket runs the SpaceX Starship Moon contract — will SpaceX land a Starship on the Moon by end of 2027 — currently at 34% on $1.1M of volume. Kalshi has a US AI regulation contract asking whether federal AI legislation passes in 2026, priced at 22% on $680k. Both reflect specific, falsifiable outcomes with clear resolution sources. Smaller catalog than the bigger categories, but the contracts here have real signal.
Resolution sources vary by contract type. Space contracts resolve on official launch records — SpaceX press releases, NASA confirmation, FAA filings. AI legislation contracts resolve on enacted federal law (signed by the President, or veto override). Product-launch contracts resolve on company announcements with optional delivery confirmation. Each platform specifies the exact source in the contract terms before the market opens.
Polymarket tends to list more space and product-launch contracts; Kalshi leans toward US regulatory questions where its CFTC registration gives it an institutional edge. Expect both platforms to expand here — AI policy is the most-covered tech topic on both, and the 2026 election cycle is bringing more legislative contracts into scope.
Tech outcomes are harder to define crisply. Politics has elections with binary results. Tech has gradients — partial AI bills, delayed launches, soft regulatory guidance. Platforms list fewer contracts because contract design is harder, and traders show up in smaller numbers. Expect this category to grow as AI policy becomes more concrete and major space milestones approach.
Anything Polymarket or Kalshi categorizes as tech, science, or AI. That covers AI legislation, space exploration milestones, major product launches, crypto-adjacent technology questions, and emerging tech regulation. The catalog reflects whichever contracts the platforms have listed — when they list more, the category grows.