Prediction market data on Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets, ETF approvals, crypto regulation, and market dominance. Live from Polymarket and Kalshi.
All available crypto prediction markets, those priced on more than one venue first. Tap any market for its price on every venue we track and where to trade it.
Polymarket's weekly Bitcoin price contract asks which threshold gets touched between August 31 and September 6. Here is how the ladder settles and what to read from it.
Polymarket's Bitcoin price contract for the week of August 10-16 asks a simple question with a laddered answer. Here is how the rungs work and what to watch.
Polymarket's XRP price ladder for July 6 asks a narrow, mechanical question. Here's what the contract measures, how it settles, and where the lean sits.
A Polymarket ladder is tracking total commitments to the Laso Finance public sale on MetaDAO. Here's what the contract actually measures and why structure matters.
Polymarket's Bitcoin June 22-28 contract is a price ladder of rungs above and below current levels. Here's what it tracks and how it resolves.
Polymarket's Ventuals token launch contract has two resolved-No legs and three active dates left. A look at what the structure actually asks.
Crypto prediction markets sit at the intersection of two booming categories. The crypto-native trader gets a way to take a directional view on Bitcoin or Ethereum without leverage and liquidation risk. The macro trader gets exposure to ETF approval timelines and crypto regulation outcomes.
Crypto contracts resolve on price snapshots from designated exchanges. Bitcoin price-target markets pay YES if BTC trades at or above the target on the specified exchange at any point during the window, and Polymarket usually uses Coinbase or a CME futures benchmark. ETF markets resolve on the SEC's published approval or denial. Relative-performance markets like ETH-vs-BTC use the percentage change of each asset over the period, calculated from exchange-published prices. Each contract specifies the source. Bitcoin dominance markets typically use TradingView's BTC.D index, a composite measure rather than a spot price.
Kalshi's CFTC-regulated event-contract structure fits well for SEC-decision questions. Crypto-native users tend to prefer Polymarket: USDC-denominated contracts, on-chain settlement, no fiat onboarding. US users who want fiat rails and a regulated venue go to Kalshi. The cross-venue board shows the same question priced on more than one venue, with each venue’s terms beside it, so a difference can be attributed rather than merely observed.
Different strikes, different liquidity, different trader bases. Two contracts with different price targets are not the same question, so their probabilities differ by definition. Where contracts cover the same question, platform-specific liquidity and trader composition produce real pricing spreads. That is where a price difference comes from, not from the absolute price levels themselves, and the terms beside each price are what decide whether the difference means anything.
No. They're a way to express a binary view ("will BTC hit $150k by year-end?") at a known maximum cost. They don't give you exposure to ongoing price movement, staking yields, or DeFi opportunities. For continuous crypto exposure, spot or futures positions are the right instruments. For binary outcome predictions and ETF approvals, prediction markets fit better.