Prediction market data on Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets, ETF approvals, crypto regulation, and market dominance. Live from Polymarket and Kalshi.
All available crypto prediction markets, sorted by volume. Click any market to trade directly on the source platform.
Crypto prediction markets sit at the intersection of two booming categories. The crypto-native trader gets a way to take a directional view on Bitcoin or Ethereum without leverage and liquidation risk. The macro trader gets exposure to ETF approval timelines and crypto regulation outcomes. Five active markets cover the territory: Bitcoin price thresholds at $150k and $200k, Ethereum versus Bitcoin Q2 performance, Solana ETF approval, and Bitcoin dominance. Combined volume around $20M.
The deepest crypto market is "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 at any point in 2026?" on Polymarket — $11.3M of volume, currently 46%. The higher target ($200k) has its own market on Kalshi at $3.2M, with a much lower 24% probability. Worth noting: these are different platforms running different strikes, so the gap isn't a direct mispricing. The Solana ETF approval market on Kalshi is at 52%. Genuine coin flip. Two relative-performance markets round out the set: "Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in Q2" at 38% on Polymarket, "Bitcoin dominance falls below 50%" at 33% with $960k of volume. Both are lower-liquidity but interesting for traders with thesis-level views on the altcoin cycle.
Crypto contracts resolve on price snapshots from designated exchanges. Bitcoin price-target markets pay YES if BTC trades at or above the target on the specified exchange at any point during the window — Polymarket usually uses Coinbase or a CME futures benchmark. ETF markets resolve on the SEC's published approval or denial. Relative-performance markets like ETH-vs-BTC use the percentage change of each asset over the period, calculated from exchange-published prices. Each contract specifies the source. Bitcoin dominance markets typically use TradingView's BTC.D index — a composite measure rather than a spot price.
Polymarket handles the bulk of crypto price markets. The $150k Bitcoin contract, the Ethereum vs Bitcoin Q2 question, and the Bitcoin dominance market all sit there. Kalshi covers the ETF approvals and the higher Bitcoin targets — its CFTC-regulated event-contract structure fits well for SEC-decision questions. Crypto-native users tend to prefer Polymarket: USDC-denominated contracts, on-chain settlement, no fiat onboarding. US users who want fiat rails and a regulated venue go to Kalshi. The two platforms run competing contracts on the Bitcoin price questions — which is where most cross-platform spreads come from. See the homepage arbitrage section for current opportunities.
Different strikes, different liquidity, different trader bases. Polymarket's $150k contract and Kalshi's $200k contract aren't directly comparable — different price targets give different probability estimates by definition. Where contracts cover overlapping questions, like the Fed-vs-ECB rates question in the economy category, platform-specific liquidity and trader composition produce real pricing spreads. That's where arbitrage tends to come from, not from the absolute price levels themselves.
No. They're a way to express a binary view — "will BTC hit $150k by year-end?" — at a known maximum cost. They don't give you exposure to ongoing price movement, staking yields, or DeFi opportunities. For continuous crypto exposure, spot or futures positions are the right instruments. For binary outcome predictions and ETF approvals, prediction markets fit better.