Real-time prediction market data on Federal Reserve decisions, inflation, GDP, unemployment, and macroeconomic outcomes. The most liquid category by volume.
All available economy prediction markets, sorted by volume. Click any market to trade directly on the source platform.
Macro is the highest-volume category on iPredicta, by a wide margin. The active set covers Federal Reserve rate decisions, inflation paths, recession probabilities, US unemployment, and the ECB's rate path — nearly $50M of combined trading volume across seven markets. Why so concentrated? Macro touches every other asset class. A trader watching Fed decisions for their fixed-income book has views to express. Retail users get direct exposure to macro outcomes without needing an options account or futures setup. The Fed cut markets in particular have become a benchmark — both for how traders read each FOMC meeting in advance and for confidence in the year-ahead path.
The biggest single market is "How many Fed rate cuts will there be in 2026?" on Polymarket. $19.2M of volume, 44% priced for two-or-more cuts. The June meeting has its own contract on Kalshi at $14.2M — currently 68% for a cut. The recession question is at $5.8M, market-implied probability 31%. Higher than baseline, well below panic. Inflation splits the difference: "CPI stays below 3% for the rest of 2026" on Kalshi at 52%. Almost a coin flip. The cross-platform trade is the ECB-vs-Fed question on Polymarket at 41% — read alongside the standalone Fed cut market at 68%, the gap is worth watching.
Macro markets resolve on official data releases. The FOMC publishes its rate decision after each meeting and that's the trigger for Fed-cut markets. CPI markets resolve on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly release. Recession markets typically resolve on NBER's official declaration — which can lag the actual recession by months. Unemployment markets use BLS Non-Farm Payrolls. Both Polymarket and Kalshi specify the source and cutoff date in each contract's terms. For inflation and employment markets in particular, where there are multiple definitions and revision cycles, the small print matters.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi cover macro markets heavily. Kalshi tends to hold the depth on individual FOMC meetings — the June 2026 contract is on Kalshi. Polymarket holds the aggregate questions like total cuts in a year. For US users, Kalshi's regulatory cover and bank-rail funding makes the macro category particularly accessible. Cross-platform spreads on the same underlying question — Fed cut probability, inflation paths — create arbitrage opportunities. Most of the live arb examples on the homepage are macro pairs.
Macro affects every asset class — equities, fixed income, currencies, crypto, real estate. A trader who's already paying attention to Fed decisions will naturally have views to express. Prediction markets give a direct way to take a macro position that doesn't require an options account, derivatives knowledge, or specific technical analysis. The Fed cut markets in particular have become a benchmark for retail and professional traders alike.
Yes, in principle. Many sophisticated traders use Fed-rate or recession markets to offset specific exposures in their primary portfolio. But the lower liquidity compared to traditional derivatives markets means you'll often pay a premium spread, and resolution can lag the actual event. Treat hedge applications cautiously and never as a one-to-one replacement for proper financial instruments.