Real-time prediction market data on Federal Reserve decisions, inflation, GDP, unemployment, and macroeconomic outcomes. The most liquid category by volume.
All available economy prediction markets, those priced on more than one venue first. Tap any market for its price on every venue we track and where to trade it.
Entain is expected to leave the FTSE 100 on 2 September. Polymarket and Kalshi both run live index-removal contracts, and neither covers London.
We measured 1,613 open Polymarket contracts. Turnover concentration falls from a 34.3% median on contracts under a fortnight old to 0.0% on those over six months. Method, limits and wallet checks included.
A Polymarket contract on the Fed's September 2026 decision rose from 60.5% to 74.5% over 72 hours to 15 August, the end of a four-day climb that ran straight through a CPI release.
Prediction markets processed a record $50.6 billion in July. Discover why Apple vs NVIDIA, Bitcoin and the US Midterms became three of the month's biggest prediction markets.
The UAE left OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May after 59 years. Polymarket's contract on a second member following it this year leans heavily to No, and the war windfall is part of why.
Polymarket's June 2026 US annual inflation market puts a precise number on the CPI question. Here is what the contract measures and where the lean sits.
Macro touches every other asset class. A trader watching Fed decisions for their fixed-income book has views to express. Retail users get direct exposure to macro outcomes without needing an options account or futures setup. The Fed cut markets in particular have become a benchmark, both for how traders read each FOMC meeting in advance and for confidence in the year-ahead path.
Macro markets resolve on official data releases. The FOMC publishes its rate decision after each meeting and that's the trigger for Fed-cut markets. CPI markets resolve on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly release. Recession markets typically resolve on NBER's official declaration, which can lag the actual recession by months. Unemployment markets use BLS Non-Farm Payrolls. Both Polymarket and Kalshi specify the source and cutoff date in each contract's terms. For inflation and employment markets in particular, where there are multiple definitions and revision cycles, the small print matters.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi cover macro markets heavily. Kalshi tends to list individual FOMC meetings; Polymarket tends to list aggregate questions such as total cuts in a year. For US users, Kalshi's regulatory cover and bank-rail funding makes the macro category particularly accessible.
Yes, in principle. Many sophisticated traders use Fed-rate or recession markets to offset specific exposures in their primary portfolio. But the lower liquidity compared to traditional derivatives markets means you'll often pay a premium spread, and resolution can lag the actual event. Treat hedge applications cautiously and never as a one-to-one replacement for proper financial instruments.