You cannot open positions on Polymarket or Kalshi from the UK. The interesting question is why, and what that tells you about what a UK-legal prediction market looks like. Part of the answer has already arrived: since mid-2026 the UK has had prediction-market products running under a UK Gambling Commission licence.
The short version: there is no blanket ban on prediction markets as a category. What exists is an older FCA rule on binary options that was written before any of these platforms reached scale. Prediction market contracts happen to fit the definition of a binary option almost exactly, so the rule catches them. This is an accident of structure rather than a considered policy position on event contracts. It matters because it shapes what a UK product has to look like: a regulated betting exchange, not a financial product.
Two points worth making up front. UK users are not without options: Betfair Exchange has been running peer-to-peer markets since 2000, and Matchbook now hosts products built and branded as prediction markets under its UK licence. And the regulatory gap between the US and UK models matters more each year. Kalshi processed $23.8 billion in trading volume in 2025, up 1,108% year on year. Numbers of that size tend to move regulators.
What follows covers where UK law actually sits, why a VPN is the wrong answer, which platforms you can use today, and what to watch. This is an educational guide, not legal or financial advice. Always verify the current terms of any platform before sending real money, and confirm your own position if you are unsure.
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The short answer: Polymarket and Kalshi are geoblocked for UK users
Visit Polymarket from a UK IP address and you can see markets and prices, but you cannot open a position. Polymarket's own list of restricted jurisdictions includes the United Kingdom alongside the United States, Germany, France, Australia, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. Kalshi is blunter about it. Attempt to sign up from the UK and you get a flat message: "Trading on Kalshi is not available in your country." Kalshi is available in more than 140 countries, and the UK is not one of them.
Both geoblocks are deliberate. They are a response to UK regulation that predates prediction markets by several years, and neither company offers a structure that makes a UK retail launch workable inside the current regime.
Why the ban exists: the FCA, 2019, and the binary options fight
The relevant rule dates from March 2019. On 29 March 2019 the Financial Conduct Authority confirmed a permanent ban on the sale, marketing and distribution of binary options to retail consumers in the UK, in force from 2 April 2019. The FCA's published rationale was blunt: "Binary options are gambling products dressed up as financial instruments." The FCA estimated the permanent ban could save retail consumers up to £17 million a year.
Prediction market contracts use a binary option structure at their core. A "Yes" contract pays £1 if the event occurs and nothing if it does not. The trading price between those two extremes reflects market-implied probability. Viewed from the FCA's 2019 framework, that structure is a binary option. Reasonable people can and do argue this conflates two different products, but the regulation does not.
This is why Polymarket and Kalshi cannot simply extend into the UK, and it is the honest answer to "why is Polymarket banned in the UK": it is not banned by name, but offering it to UK retail users would put it in direct conflict with the retail ban. Operating a market where users buy and sell shares in real-world outcomes needs either FCA authorisation, if the activity is treated as a financial instrument, or a Gambling Commission licence, if it is treated as betting. Polymarket serves the UK under neither. The only lawful route to offering binary-style event contracts to UK retail users is through the gambling framework, which means a UK Gambling Commission licence rather than FCA authorisation.
What about a VPN?
The obvious workaround is the obvious mistake. A VPN can mask your IP address and present another location to Polymarket's servers. This guide is not going to walk through how to do that, and the reason is not squeamishness. It is that the consequences land on the user, not the platform.
Polymarket's own help pages say it "strictly prohibits the use of VPNs or similar tools to bypass geographic restrictions," and treat it as a breach of its terms of service. There is no UK consumer protection regime backing you up in that scenario, because the entire point of the geoblock is that the platform has chosen not to take on UK users. You are, in regulatory terms, on your own.
There is also the tax question. Winnings from UK-licensed betting are not taxable for individuals, but that treatment is a feature of the UK gambling framework, and an offshore crypto-settled venue sits outside it. Our UK and US prediction markets tax guide lays out the shape of the problem. The honest summary: anyone accessing a geoblocked platform should not assume the tax-free treatment of UK betting applies to them.
The UK Gambling Commission view
The UKGC has been consistent. In a February 2026 blog post on prediction markets, it wrote that "it would appear current products would fall within the definition of a 'Betting Intermediary' under UK legislation," and that their "core aspects are akin to what in the UK would be described as a 'Betting Exchange.'" It also said that operators not licensed in Great Britain "should take steps to ensure they are not targeting or transacting with consumers in Great Britain." In plain terms: prediction markets are gambling, not finance, for UK regulatory purposes. Our guide to the Gambling Commission's view on prediction markets goes deeper on what that means for operators and users.
This is a meaningful split from the US approach. There, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission treats event contracts as commodities-style financial derivatives regulated under the Commodity Exchange Act. The same product is a financial derivative under one regime and a bet under another. Which framework wins in a given country determines which regulator licenses the platform, which consumer protections apply, and which tax treatment the user gets. These are not minor distinctions.
Beyond that blog post, the UKGC has not issued dedicated guidance on prediction markets as a product category. When it does, that guidance will do more than anything else to determine what a UK-legal prediction market looks like: the licensing requirements, the advertising restrictions, the affordability checks, the market types permitted.
What UK users can legally use today
The product gap is real, but it is not total. Several UKGC-licensed betting exchanges already offer something close to the Polymarket and Kalshi experience. The interfaces are different. The underlying mechanism is almost identical. The useful question is not "which platform is best" but "which platform is best for what I am trying to trade."
Betfair Exchange and Betfair Predicts
Betfair Exchange launched in June 2000, and it covers sports, politics, entertainment, and a range of specials. For breadth nothing beats it from the UK: if a major event has a probability, Betfair has probably priced it.
In April 2026 Betfair launched Betfair Predicts as an invite-only beta in the UK. The product is a modified version of the existing Exchange that presents contracts in the Yes/No format Polymarket and Kalshi users will recognise. Because it sits on the existing Betfair UK licence, it is legal for UK users.
The trade-off is the fee structure and the interface. The standard commission is 5% of net winnings. On top of that, in January 2025 Betfair replaced its Premium Charge with the Expert Fee, set from gross profit over your last 52 active weeks: nothing up to £25,000, 20% between £25,000 and £100,000, and 40% above that, so a consistently profitable account pays materially more than the headline rate. Most retail participants never reach the Expert Fee threshold, but the headline 5% is noticeably above Smarkets. The product is also sprawling, with a sportsbook alongside the exchange that newcomers can mistake for the real thing. The exchange is the bit that matters for prediction-market-style trading: there you back and lay outcomes against other users and Betfair takes a commission, while on the sportsbook Betfair sets the odds and takes the other side.
Smarkets
Smarkets is a London-based betting exchange, UKGC-licensed, and the main challenger to Betfair on fees. Commission is 2% of net winnings, which matters if you trade frequently. Market coverage includes politics, current affairs, sports, and a growing roster of event contracts: next prime minister, party of next government, by-election winners, US presidential odds. Our Smarkets vs Polymarket comparison walks through where each one wins.
The real limitation is liquidity. Order books on most markets are thinner than Betfair, which translates into wider spreads and harder fills at size. For smaller retail positions this rarely matters. For anything more serious it does.
Matchbook and the prediction-market brands it hosts
Matchbook is a UKGC-licensed exchange that now runs prediction-market brands on its own platform. By June 2026 it carried two in the UK: easyBet Predictions and ADI Predictstreet. Neither holds a licence of its own; both operate under the UK Gambling Commission licence held by Triplebet, Matchbook's operator. Our guide to using ADI PredictStreet in the UK explains why the Matchbook route is the UK route for that brand.
Spread betting firms
There is a parallel UK product that prediction-market enthusiasts often overlook. Spread betting firms like Spreadex and Sporting Index quote a buy and sell range on numerical outcomes (total goals, seats won, runs scored) rather than a yes/no probability. You take a position per point of movement away from the spread.
The payoff structure is closer to a CFD than a binary contract, and the loss profile is open-ended unless you cap it, which makes spread betting riskier than a fixed-stake exchange position. But spread betting is regulated by the FCA, profits are not subject to capital gains tax under current rules, and on niche numerical questions it is often the only liquid way to take a view. Our piece on event contracts versus spread betting goes deeper on the mechanical difference.
Offshore crypto-native venues
A handful of decentralised or offshore venues let UK users access markets that resemble Polymarket. Some operate on public blockchains with no KYC at all. Some are explicitly geoblocked from the UK but reachable with a VPN. Using any of them puts you outside the UK consumer protection regime and outside the tax treatment of UK-licensed betting. The UK-licensed venues exist precisely so you do not have to make that trade, and on the markets they cover, they cover them well.
Picking the right venue
UK politics, by-elections, leadership contests, polling-driven markets: Smarkets is usually the first stop, with Betfair Exchange as the deeper book for the highest-profile contests. US politics and global news from the UK: Betfair Exchange has the volume, though its markets list is narrower than Polymarket's long tail. Products presented as Yes/No prediction markets: Matchbook's hosted brands, or Betfair Predicts if you have an invitation. Numerical outcomes on sport and politics: spread betting firms are purpose-built for the shape.
Fee structures matter more than they look. A flat 2% on Smarkets versus 5% on Betfair plus a possible Expert Fee can change the economics of a strategy entirely. If you trade a lot, model the fees before you model the edge.
The regulatory direction of travel
Three developments matter.
The first is formal UKGC guidance. The February 2026 blog post set out the Commission's starting position, but dedicated guidance on prediction markets would settle the detail. Whether that guidance is permissive (clear licensing route, proportionate affordability checks, reasonable market-type permissions) or restrictive (onerous additional requirements on top of the standard betting licence) will shape the UK market for years.
The second is the wider gambling reform. The government's April 2023 white paper on gambling is being implemented mainly through secondary legislation and changes to the Commission's licence conditions, rather than through a new Gambling Act. That route lets the rules change without a new statute, which matters for prediction markets: whether they are treated as a named product category or case by case through existing betting-intermediary rules can be settled in the Commission's own licensing framework.
The third is external pressure from the US. Kalshi's $23.8 billion in 2025 trading volume, up 1,108% year on year, and a valuation of $22 billion, in a $1 billion funding round first reported in March 2026 and announced as completed in May, make it hard to ignore. In October 2025 the Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket and to distribute its data to institutions, and in November 2025 the CFTC approved Polymarket's return to the US as a regulated exchange. When that much regulated capital and activity flows into a product category, other major jurisdictions, including the UK, tend to revisit their position on it.
What this means in practice
If you are a UK retail user interested in prediction-markets-style trading today, Betfair Exchange has the widest market coverage, and Smarkets is a credible alternative if you are sensitive to commission and trading at a scale where thinner liquidity is not a blocker. If you want the Yes/No prediction-market format itself, Matchbook's hosted brands offer it under a UK licence today, and Betfair Predicts is in beta.
If you are waiting for a UK product with the full Polymarket feature set (crypto markets, global geopolitical events, rapid market creation, open APIs), that product does not exist in the UK. The nearest today are the prediction-market brands on Matchbook's exchange, easyBet Predictions and ADI Predictstreet. A Polymarket or Kalshi UK entry would require either a regulatory unlock or a materially different product structure.
If you want the long tail of US-political and crypto-native contracts specifically, the substitution is imperfect, and pretending otherwise would be silly. For the bulk of what UK readers actually want to trade on, the regulated UK options are credible.
How iPredicta fits in
iPredicta is a prediction markets discovery and intelligence platform built for UK users first, and for other regulated markets as they open. We do not operate an exchange. What we do is help you see what is actually available to you and which platforms you can legally use from your location. Where more than one venue lists the same market, we show their prices side by side: Kalshi and Polymarket across politics, economics and other categories, and Betfair and Novig on sports.
As UK prediction-market products grow, from Betfair Predicts at scale to the brands Matchbook already hosts, we will be the layer that compares them honestly so you can choose where to trade. And as the regulatory picture clarifies, we will track what changes, when, and what it means for UK users specifically. That is the role we think UK prediction markets need filled, and it is the one we are building.
Correction, 2 October 2026. An earlier version of this guide said Matchbook had announced a UK prediction-markets platform for 2026 and that "neither commitment has landed yet". By June 2026 Matchbook's exchange was carrying two UK prediction-market brands, easyBet Predictions and ADI Predictstreet, both under the UK Gambling Commission licence held by Triplebet, its operator. The guide also gave Kalshi's valuation as roughly $11 billion; Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in a $1 billion funding round first reported in March 2026 and announced as completed in May. The Matchbook section, the guidance and summary paragraphs, the FAQ and the valuation have been corrected.
Correction, 3 October 2026. This update merges our guides to using Polymarket from the UK and to legal alternatives into this page. In doing so it removes Robinhood figures we could not verify, and a forecast that a new Gambling Act would arrive within 12 to 18 months: the 2023 white paper is being implemented through secondary legislation and licence conditions instead. It also replaces an unverifiable line about Gambling Commission staff with what the Commission's February 2026 blog says, and corrects how this page described restricted Polymarket users and the order of Kalshi's prohibited list. It also corrects our own description of what iPredicta compares: we show Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side, and Betfair and Novig on sports, not Smarkets. The direction-of-travel section, the practical guidance, the FAQ and the section on how iPredicta fits in have been corrected.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket does not let UK users open positions. You can see markets and prices from the UK, but the United Kingdom is on its list of restricted jurisdictions, alongside the US, Germany, France, Australia, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. The block exists because prediction-market contracts use a binary-option payout structure, and the FCA banned the sale of binary options to UK retail consumers in March 2019. Polymarket is not breaking UK law by existing; it is complying with the regulatory line by refusing UK users.
Is Kalshi legal in the UK?
Kalshi explicitly excludes UK residents. The platform is available in more than 140 countries, and the United Kingdom is on its list of prohibited countries. Attempt to sign up from a UK IP address and you get a flat notice stating that trading on Kalshi is not available in your country. The regulatory reason is the same as Polymarket: prediction-market contracts conflict with the FCA's binary-options retail ban.
Can I use a VPN to access Polymarket from the UK?
Technically possible, practically a bad idea. Polymarket's help pages say it strictly prohibits using a VPN to bypass its geographic restrictions, and doing so breaches its terms of service. There is no UK regulator or ombudsman who will help you recover money from a platform you accessed against its own rules, and the tax-free treatment of UK-licensed betting does not follow you to an offshore venue.
What prediction markets can I legally use in the UK?
Several UKGC-licensed betting exchanges offer products that are mechanically very similar to prediction markets. Betfair Exchange has operated since 2000; Betfair Predicts, its Yes/No version, has been in invite-only beta since April 2026. Smarkets is the main challenger and charges 2% commission compared to Betfair's 5%. Matchbook's exchange carries two prediction-market brands, easyBet Predictions and ADI Predictstreet, both live by June 2026 under the UK Gambling Commission licence held by Triplebet, Matchbook's operator. All of these are betting exchanges under UK law, but the underlying mechanism is essentially identical.
Why are prediction markets banned in the UK?
They are not banned as a category. The relevant restriction is an FCA rule from March 2019 that prohibited the sale, marketing, and distribution of binary options to retail consumers. Prediction-market contracts use a binary-option structure at their core, a Yes contract that pays £1 if the event occurs and nothing if it does not, so they fall within the rule by accident of structure rather than by direct policy. UK-licensed betting exchanges can offer mechanically similar products under the gambling framework instead.
Will prediction markets become legal in the UK?
In the gambling framework, they already are: the Gambling Commission said in February 2026 that current prediction-market products would appear to fall within its "Betting Intermediary" category, and products presented as prediction markets now run on Matchbook's exchange under a UK licence. What has not happened is a route through the financial framework, because the FCA's binary-options ban still applies to retail consumers. The Commission has not yet issued dedicated guidance on the category, and the wider gambling reforms are being implemented through secondary legislation and licence conditions rather than a new Act.