iPredicta Learn

Prediction markets,
explained plainly

Guides and analysis on how prediction markets work: which platforms you can legally access, what the regulatory picture looks like, and how to find the best pricing on any contract.

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Explainer

What Is Implied Probability? How Prediction Market Prices Become Forecasts

Implied probability turns a prediction market price into a forecast. Here is how the maths works, where it distorts, and why traders read it as odds.

3 September 2026 · 11 min read
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Explainer · US

What Is an Event Contract? The Regulated US Term for Prediction Market Bets

Event contracts are the CFTC-regulated form of prediction market bet. What they are, how Kalshi lists them, and the legal fights still shaping where they can trade.

2 September 2026 · 10 min read
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Explainer

Prediction Markets for Entertainment Awards: Emmys, Globes, Grammys and Oscars Explained

How prediction markets price the Emmys, Golden Globes, Grammys and Oscars, where the probabilities come from, and what traders should know before betting.

31 August 2026 · 11 min read
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Comparison · US

Kalshi vs DraftKings: Two Different Models for US Sports Prediction Markets

Kalshi vs DraftKings on US sports prediction markets: how a CFTC-regulated exchange and a sportsbook operator approach the same events with very different mechanics.

20 August 2026 · 12 min read
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Comparison · US

Polymarket vs PredictIt: The Crypto-Native Platform Versus the Academic Original

Polymarket vs PredictIt compared: fees, liquidity, market depth, US access, and which platform actually suits which kind of trader.

20 August 2026 · 13 min read
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Platform Guide

Polymarket Disputes and Resolutions: How the UMA Oracle Settles Disagreements

How Polymarket disputes and resolutions actually work, from UMA's optimistic oracle to bond economics, escalation, and the rare cases that go badly wrong.

20 August 2026 · 11 min read
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Comparison · US

Prediction Markets vs Futures Trading: How Event Contracts Differ From CME Futures

Prediction markets vs futures trading compared: how event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket differ from CME futures in payoff, margin, regulation, and liquidity.

18 August 2026 · 12 min read
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Comparison

Are Prediction Markets Better Than Pundits? Here’s what the data says

Are prediction markets better than pundits? We examine the data behind prediction markets, polls, experts and forecasting models to find out.

17 August 2026 · 8 min read
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Platform Guide

What Are Polymarket Combos? How They Differ From a Sportsbook Parlay

What Polymarket Combos are, and the two structural things that make a Combo different from a sportsbook parlay: it stays tradable until resolution, and its price is set by competing market makers through an RFQ auction.

17 July 2026 · 10 min read
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Regulation · UK

The UK Gambling Commission's View on Prediction Markets: What Operators and Users Need to Know

How the UK Gambling Commission treats prediction markets, why Polymarket and Kalshi sit outside the licensed perimeter, and what UK users and operators should actually do.

17 July 2026 · 13 min read
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Explainer

What Are Oracles in Prediction Markets? Inside Polymarket's UMA Resolution System

How oracles decide who wins on Polymarket, Kalshi and other prediction markets. UMA, dispute windows, and why resolution is the riskiest part of every trade.

14 July 2026 · 11 min read
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Explainer

What Are Conditional Markets? Polymarket's If-Then Contracts Explained

Conditional markets let traders price 'if X, then Y' scenarios. Here's how they work on Polymarket, why they matter, and where they break.

7 July 2026 · 11 min read
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Explainer

What Is a Binary Option? How They Differ From Prediction Markets

Binary options and prediction markets both pay fixed amounts on yes/no outcomes, but the resemblance ends there. Here is what actually separates them.

6 July 2026 · 11 min read
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Platform Guide · UK

Smarkets Event Markets: The UK Exchange Approach to Trading Outcomes

How Smarkets runs event markets from London under UK licensing, what the 2% commission actually costs, and how it stacks up against Betfair and Polymarket.

5 July 2026 · 11 min read
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Platform Guide · US

How Polymarket's Political Markets Work, Read Through the 2026 US Midterms

How Polymarket's political markets work, explained through the live 2026 US midterm contracts: market structures, resolution, fees, and how to read the prices.

4 July 2026 · 7 min read
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Platform Guide

Why Prediction Markets Run on Crypto Rails

Trump's disclosure booked over $1bn in crypto income while the flagship token fell 97%. Here is what that gap teaches about the crypto rails every Polymarket trade runs on.

1 July 2026 · 8 min read
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Platform Guide

How Polymarket Works: The Crypto-Native Prediction Market Explained

How Polymarket works: the crypto-native prediction market where traders buy YES and NO shares in real-world events, priced between 0 and 1 dollar.

1 July 2026 · 10 min read
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Strategy

How to Spot Mispriced Prediction Markets: Where Inefficiencies Hide

A practical guide to spotting mispriced prediction markets, from stale liquidity and resolution ambiguity to the corners where smart money still finds edge.

30 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Strategy

Prediction Market Trading Strategies for Beginners: Five Approaches That Actually Work

Five prediction market trading strategies that suit beginners, from probability gaps to liquidity plays, with worked examples and the risks nobody flags.

29 June 2026 · 10 min read
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Strategy

How to Make Money on Prediction Markets: The Realistic Guide for New Traders

How to make money on prediction markets, honestly. The edges that exist, the ones that don't, and what a realistic returns profile actually looks like.

28 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Explainer

How to fund a Polymarket account with USDC: the practical guide for new prediction market traders

A step-by-step walkthrough on how to fund a Polymarket account with USDC from a UK or US start: wallet setup, the Polygon network, exchanges, and fees.

26 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Explainer

How World Cup Group-Stage Tiebreakers Actually Resolve, and What Prediction Markets Do With Them

The 2026 World Cup tiebreaker order changed: head-to-head now beats overall goal difference. Here is how it works and why prediction markets price it.

25 June 2026 · 8 min read
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Regulation

Are Prediction Markets Legal in Europe? Navigating the EU's Complex Regulatory Landscape

Are prediction markets legal in Europe? A clear-eyed guide to EU rules, national gambling regimes, and what users can actually access today.

22 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Regulation

Are Prediction Markets Legal in Canada? A Province-by-Province Guide

Are prediction markets legal in Canada? A clear guide to the federal rules, provincial gaming regulators, and what Canadians can actually access today.

21 June 2026 · 12 min read
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Regulation · US

Is Kalshi Legal in All 50 States? Why CFTC Regulation Matters for State-Level Access

Kalshi runs under CFTC oversight, but state regulators have pushed back hard. Here is the honest picture of where Kalshi sits in all 50 US states.

20 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Regulation · US

Is Polymarket Legal in New York? Why the State's Gambling Laws Matter More Than Most

Is Polymarket legal in New York? The state's gambling laws collide with federal event contract rules in ways that matter for any would-be trader.

19 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Regulation · US

Is Polymarket Legal in Texas? Conservative Gambling Laws Meet Federal Event Contracts

Is Polymarket legal in Texas? A clear-eyed guide to how the state's strict gambling laws collide with federally regulated event contracts, and what Texans can actually trade.

18 June 2026 · 10 min read
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Regulation · US

Is Polymarket Legal in California? The State-by-State Access Question

Can Californians use Polymarket? The honest answer on state-level access, what changed after the QCEX acquisition, and what residents can legally trade today.

17 June 2026 · 11 min read
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How-To

Who Wins on Prediction Markets? 1% Take 76.5% of Gains

A 2026 study of $67bn in Polymarket trades finds 1% of users capture 76.5% of gains. Here is what separates the winners from the losing majority.

16 June 2026 · 11 min read
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How-To

How to Place Your First Prediction Market Trade: A Beginner's Walkthrough

A practical, step-by-step guide to placing your first prediction market trade, covering Kalshi for US users and the UK-licensed alternatives that actually work.

16 June 2026 · 12 min read
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How-To · US

How to Read Kalshi Odds: Understanding Event Contract Pricing

Learn how to read Kalshi odds, decode cent-based contract pricing, and translate Yes and No quotes into the implied probabilities they really represent.

15 June 2026 · 11 min read
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How-To

How to Read Polymarket Odds: Turning Prices Into Probabilities

A clear guide to reading Polymarket odds: how cent prices translate to probability, what the spread tells you, and where the numbers can mislead.

14 June 2026 · 11 min read
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How-To · US

How to Open a Kalshi Account: A Step-by-Step Guide for US Traders

A practical walkthrough for opening a Kalshi account in the US: sign-up, ID verification, funding, fees, and the common mistakes that slow new traders down.

13 June 2026 · 11 min read
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How-To · US

Is Polymarket Available in the US? Current Access Status After the CFTC Settlement

Is Polymarket available in the US? A clear-eyed guide to current access, the CFTC settlement, the QCEX acquisition, and what US traders can actually do today.

12 June 2026 · 12 min read
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Regulation · UK

Can You Use ADI PredictStreet in the UK?

Can UK users access ADI PredictStreet? The short answer involves Matchbook, a Gibraltar licence, and a UKGC question that has not been settled.

12 June 2026 · 10 min read
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Explainer

What the Prediction Markets Expect From the 2026 World Cup

Pre-registered prediction market baseline for the 2026 World Cup: outright winner, finalists, all 12 group winners and golden boot. As of 11 June 2026.

11 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Platform Guide · US

How Polymarket's Regulated US Access Works After the QCEX Deal

How Polymarket's US access works after the QCEX acquisition: the FCM broker model, KYC signup, CFTC oversight, and what it means for traders.

11 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Explainer

Why Prediction Markets Are Accurate, and Where That Breaks Down: Wisdom of Crowds, Brier Scores, and Four Ways Markets Fail

Why prediction markets are accurate: how skin-in-the-game pricing, Brier scores, and calibration data explain when crowds beat polls and pundits, and when they do not.

11 June 2026 · 14 min read
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How-To · UK

Legal Alternatives to Polymarket for UK Users: Where to Trade Event Outcomes From the UK

Polymarket blocks UK users, but Smarkets, Betfair Exchange and others let you trade event outcomes legally from the UK. Here is the honest guide.

11 June 2026 · 10 min read
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How-To · UK

Can You Use Polymarket in the UK? The Honest Answer About Access and Legality

Can you use Polymarket in the UK? A clear, honest guide to Polymarket's UK status, the FCA's position, and the regulated alternatives worth knowing about.

10 June 2026 · 10 min read
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Comparison · US

Binary Options vs Event Contracts: Why One Is Regulated and the Other Isn't

Binary options vs event contracts: why the CFTC banned one off-exchange and licensed the other. The regulatory split, in plain English, for US traders.

9 June 2026 · 9 min read
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Comparison · UK

Prediction Markets vs Traditional Bookmakers: Why Trading Against Other Users Changes the Odds

Prediction markets vs traditional bookmakers: why peer-to-peer odds beat the high-street margin, what you give up, and how UK traders should weigh the trade-off.

8 June 2026 · 12 min read
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Comparison · UK

Event Contracts vs Spread Betting: Two Routes to Trading the Same Outcome

Event contracts and spread betting both let you trade outcomes, but the mechanics, tax treatment and risk profiles differ sharply. Here is the working comparison.

7 June 2026 · 12 min read
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Comparison · UK

Smarkets vs Polymarket: How a UK Exchange Compares to a Global Prediction Platform

Smarkets vs Polymarket compared for UK users: fees, liquidity, market range, legality, and which one actually makes sense depending on what you want to trade.

6 June 2026 · 12 min read
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Comparison · US

Kalshi vs Robinhood Prediction Markets: Which Platform Should US Users Choose?

Kalshi vs Robinhood prediction markets compared for US users: fees, market depth, regulation, and which platform actually fits how you want to trade.

5 June 2026 · 10 min read
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Explainer

Yes Shares vs No Shares: How Binary Prediction Markets Actually Work

Yes shares vs no shares in prediction markets: how the two sides of a binary contract are priced, settled, and why the maths always adds to a dollar.

4 June 2026 · 11 min read
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Explainer

What Is Liquidity in Prediction Markets? Why Some Contracts Are Thin and What That Means for Traders

Liquidity in prediction markets decides whether your trade fills at a fair price or moves the market against you. Here's how it works and why it matters.

28 May 2026 · 12 min read
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Explainer

What Is Market Resolution? How Prediction Markets Decide Winners

Market resolution is how prediction markets settle: the moment a contract pays out 100 cents or zero. Here is exactly how it works, and where it goes wrong.

27 May 2026 · 12 min read
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Regulation

Prediction Market Tax: UK and US Rules for Traders

HMRC's gambling-versus-investment line on Polymarket and Kalshi profits, and the IRS treatment of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Where the rules are settled, where they are not, and the records you should be keeping today.

8 May 2026 · 11 min read
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Platform Guide · US

Kalshi Event Contracts Explained: What You're Trading

Kalshi event contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives, not state-by-state sports bets, and that legal distinction is doing real work. What event contracts are, how they settle, and why the language matters.

7 May 2026 · 6 min read
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Strategy

Polymarket Arbitrage Explained: How Traders Find an Edge

Same outcome, different platforms, different prices, and the gap is the arb. The mechanics of cross-platform and same-platform arbitrage, why the gaps exist, and the execution risks that turn paper profits into losses.

6 May 2026 · 10 min read
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Comparison

Are Prediction Markets More Accurate Than Polls?

Polymarket called Trump weeks before the major aggregators in 2024. We break down where prediction markets beat polls, where polls still win, and what each one is actually measuring underneath the headline number.

5 May 2026 · 8 min read
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Explainer

How Prediction Market Odds Work: Cents to Probability

A 67 cent contract means a 67 per cent chance. We explain why the price equals the probability, how to read the order book on Polymarket and Kalshi, and the common mistakes that quietly cost retail traders their edge.

4 May 2026 · 7 min read
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Comparison · US

Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: What's the Difference?

A Kalshi contract on an NFL game looks identical to a FanDuel bet on the same game. They are not the same product. How they differ on fees, pricing transparency, regulation, tax treatment, and consumer protections, and who each suits.

30 April 2026 · 13 min read
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Regulation · US

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? A State-by-State Guide 2026

Federally legal, contested in around a dozen states, with the first outright state ban enjoined days before it took effect and the case heading toward the Supreme Court. The complete guide to where Kalshi and Polymarket stand under federal and state law: the preemption argument, active rulings, and what it means for your access today.

29 April 2026 · 20 min read
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Explainer

What Are Prediction Markets? A Plain-English Guide

Prediction markets turn questions about the future into prices. How the core mechanic works, where the probability comes from, a brief history from the Iowa Electronic Markets to Kalshi's $43 billion 2025 volume, and how to get started.

28 April 2026 · 12 min read
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Comparison · US

Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Should You Use in 2026?

Kalshi has long held around 90% of the US prediction-markets market, with open access across around 44 states. Polymarket US dropped its waitlist in May 2026 and is now open to US signup (iOS-only for now, 18+). An honest comparison of fees, liquidity, market coverage, regulation, and who each platform actually suits.

27 April 2026 · 16 min read
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Regulation · UK

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK? A Complete 2026 Guide

Polymarket and Kalshi are geoblocked for UK users. Here is why the FCA's binary options ban catches prediction market contracts, which UKGC-licensed platforms you can use today, and the three regulatory signals to watch over the next twelve months.

24 April 2026 · 13 min read
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