Prediction markets,
explained plainly
Guides and analysis on how prediction markets work: which platforms you can legally access, what the regulatory picture looks like, and how to find the best pricing on any contract.
How to Read Kalshi Odds: Understanding Event Contract Pricing
Learn how to read Kalshi odds, decode cent-based contract pricing, and translate Yes and No quotes into the implied probabilities they really represent.
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How to Read Polymarket Odds: Turning Prices Into Probabilities
A clear guide to reading Polymarket odds: how cent prices translate to probability, what the spread tells you, and where the numbers can mislead.
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How to Open a Kalshi Account: A Step-by-Step Guide for US Traders
A practical walkthrough for opening a Kalshi account in the US: sign-up, ID verification, funding, fees, and the common mistakes that slow new traders down.
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Is Polymarket Available in the US? Current Access Status After the CFTC Settlement
Is Polymarket available in the US? A clear-eyed guide to current access, the CFTC settlement, the QCEX acquisition, and what US traders can actually do today.
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Can You Use ADI PredictStreet in the UK?
Can UK users access ADI PredictStreet? The short answer involves Matchbook, a Gibraltar licence, and a UKGC question that has not been settled.
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What the Prediction Markets Expect From the 2026 World Cup
Pre-registered prediction market baseline for the 2026 World Cup: outright winner, finalists, all 12 group winners and golden boot. As of 11 June 2026.
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How Polymarket's Regulated US Access Works After the QCEX Deal
How Polymarket's US access works after the QCEX acquisition: the FCM broker model, KYC signup, CFTC oversight, and what it means for traders.
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Why Prediction Markets Are Accurate: Wisdom of Crowds, Brier Scores, and What Polls Cannot Match
Why prediction markets are accurate: how skin-in-the-game pricing, Brier scores, and calibration data explain when crowds beat polls and pundits, and when they do not.
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Legal Alternatives to Polymarket for UK Users: Where to Trade Event Outcomes From the UK
Polymarket blocks UK users, but Smarkets, Betfair Exchange and others let you trade event outcomes legally from the UK. Here is the honest guide.
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Can You Use Polymarket in the UK? The Honest Answer About Access and Legality
Can you use Polymarket in the UK? A clear, honest guide to Polymarket's UK status, the FCA's position, and the regulated alternatives worth knowing about.
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Binary Options vs Event Contracts: Why One Is Regulated and the Other Isn't
Binary options vs event contracts: why the CFTC banned one off-exchange and licensed the other. The regulatory split, in plain English, for US traders.
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Prediction Markets vs Traditional Bookmakers: Why Trading Against Other Users Changes the Odds
Prediction markets vs traditional bookmakers: why peer-to-peer odds beat the high-street margin, what you give up, and how UK traders should weigh the trade-off.
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Event Contracts vs Spread Betting: Two Routes to Trading the Same Outcome
Event contracts and spread betting both let you trade outcomes, but the mechanics, tax treatment and risk profiles differ sharply. Here is the working comparison.
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Smarkets vs Polymarket: How a UK Exchange Compares to a Global Prediction Platform
Smarkets vs Polymarket compared for UK users: fees, liquidity, market range, legality, and which one actually makes sense depending on what you want to trade.
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Kalshi vs Robinhood Prediction Markets: Which Platform Should US Users Choose?
Kalshi vs Robinhood prediction markets compared for US users: fees, market depth, regulation, and which platform actually fits how you want to trade.
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Yes Shares vs No Shares: How Binary Prediction Markets Actually Work
Yes shares vs no shares in prediction markets: how the two sides of a binary contract are priced, settled, and why the maths always adds to a dollar.
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What Is Liquidity in Prediction Markets? Why Some Contracts Are Thin and What That Means for Traders
Liquidity in prediction markets decides whether your trade fills at a fair price or moves the market against you. Here's how it works and why it matters.
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What Is Market Resolution? How Prediction Markets Decide Winners
Market resolution is how prediction markets settle: the moment a contract pays out 100 cents or zero. Here is exactly how it works, and where it goes wrong.
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What Is an Event Contract? The Regulated US Term for Prediction Market Bets
Event contracts are the CFTC-regulated way Americans trade on real-world outcomes. Here is what the term means, how Kalshi uses it, and why it matters.
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What Is Implied Probability? How Prediction Market Prices Become Forecasts
Implied probability turns prediction market prices into forecasts you can read. Here is how the 67-cent contract becomes a 67% chance, and where the maths bends.
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Prediction Market Tax: UK and US Rules for Traders
HMRC's gambling-versus-investment line on Polymarket and Kalshi profits, and the IRS treatment of CFTC-regulated event contracts. Where the rules are settled, where they are not, and the records you should be keeping today.
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Kalshi Event Contracts Explained: What You're Trading
Kalshi event contracts are CFTC-regulated derivatives, not state-by-state sports bets, and that legal distinction is doing real work. What event contracts are, how they settle, and why the language matters.
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Polymarket Arbitrage Explained: How Traders Find an Edge
Same outcome, different platforms, different prices, and the gap is the arb. The mechanics of cross-platform and same-platform arbitrage, why the gaps exist, and the execution risks that turn paper profits into losses.
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Are Prediction Markets More Accurate Than Polls?
Polymarket called Trump weeks before the major aggregators in 2024. We break down where prediction markets beat polls, where polls still win, and what each one is actually measuring underneath the headline number.
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How Prediction Market Odds Work: Cents to Probability
A 67 cent contract means a 67 per cent chance. We explain why the price equals the probability, how to read the order book on Polymarket and Kalshi, and the common mistakes that quietly cost retail traders their edge.
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Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: What's the Difference?
A Kalshi contract on an NFL game looks identical to a FanDuel bet on the same game. They are not the same product. How they differ on fees, pricing transparency, regulation, tax treatment, and consumer protections, and who each suits.
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Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? A State-by-State Guide 2026
Federally legal, contested in around a dozen states, with the first outright state ban set for August 2026 and the case heading toward the Supreme Court. The complete guide to where Kalshi and Polymarket stand under federal and state law: the preemption argument, active rulings, and what it means for your access today.
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What Are Prediction Markets? A Plain-English Guide
Prediction markets turn questions about the future into prices. How the core mechanic works, where the probability comes from, a brief history from the Iowa Electronic Markets to Kalshi's $43 billion 2025 volume, and how to get started.
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Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Should You Use in 2026?
Kalshi has 90% US market share and open access across around 44 states. Polymarket US dropped its waitlist in May 2026 and is now open to US signup (iOS-led, 18+). An honest comparison of fees, liquidity, market coverage, regulation, and who each platform actually suits.
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Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK? A Complete 2026 Guide
Polymarket and Kalshi are geoblocked for UK users. Here is why the FCA's binary options ban catches prediction market contracts, which UKGC-licensed platforms you can use today, and the three regulatory signals to watch over the next twelve months.
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