Live prediction market probabilities on elections, government decisions, and political events across the US, UK, and beyond. Sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi.
All available politics prediction markets, sorted by volume. Click any market to trade directly on the source platform.
Politics is where prediction markets first proved themselves. The 2024 US cycle was the breakout moment — Polymarket processed over $3 billion in election contracts, Kalshi won the legal fight to offer event contracts under CFTC regulation, journalists started citing market probabilities alongside polls. Six markets are live in this category right now. They cover the 2026 US midterms, Federal Reserve leadership, and political stability questions in the UK and France. Combined volume is over $22M.
The deepest market is which party controls the US House after the 2026 midterms — Polymarket has $8.2M of volume, currently pricing Democrats at 62%. The Senate version is more contested: $4.1M of volume, 55% probability for the same outcome. Both are tight enough to move on each polling release. The Federal Reserve question — "Will Jerome Powell be replaced as Fed Chair in 2026?" — is the surprise. $6.8M of volume, 58% probability. That reflects real uncertainty about administrative pressure on the Fed, not partisan posturing. Polymarket dominates this category. Five of the six active markets sit there. Kalshi has the UK snap election contract at 18% — a low-probability long-tail bet that's been firming gradually.
Resolution depends on the question type. Election markets typically pay out on Associated Press calls or final certified results — different platforms specify slightly different mechanisms, so check the contract terms. Appointment markets like the Powell question resolve on the formal announcement from the relevant institution. Continuation markets — "will X stay in office through Y date" — pay YES if the official is still in post on the resolution date. Disputed outcomes complicate things. Both Polymarket and Kalshi publish their resolution criteria, and the small print matters more than people think before they place a position.
For US political markets, Polymarket is the deeper pool. Wider selection, higher liquidity, longer track record. Kalshi is the practical choice if you want CFTC regulation and bank-rail funding rather than crypto custody — particularly relevant for US-based users. UK political markets are scarce on both. Polymarket has the snap election and Starmer continuation contracts. Beyond that, UK users need to look at exchange-style markets — Betfair Exchange in particular — which we cover in our legal guide for UK users.
It depends on jurisdiction. In the US, Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and operates in around 42 states, with state-level enforcement actions in a handful (Nevada, Ohio, Massachusetts). Polymarket US is invite-only and currently sports-only. UK users cannot legally use Polymarket or Kalshi but can use Betfair Exchange for political markets. See our US legal guide and UK legal guide.
Generally more accurate, especially in the final weeks before a vote. Markets aggregate views with skin-in-the-game, which tends to produce sharper probability estimates than polls or pundit forecasts. Markets also update continuously rather than weekly, so they reflect new information faster. They're not infallible — but on tight races they typically beat polling averages by a meaningful margin.