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What are politics prediction markets?
Politics is where prediction markets first proved themselves. The 2024 US cycle was the breakout moment: Polymarket processed over $3 billion in election contracts, Kalshi won the legal fight to offer event contracts under CFTC regulation, journalists started citing market probabilities alongside polls.
How politics markets resolve
Resolution depends on the question type. Election markets typically pay out on Associated Press calls or final certified results, and different platforms specify slightly different mechanisms, so check the contract terms. Appointment markets resolve on the formal announcement from the relevant institution. Continuation markets ("will X stay in office through Y date") pay YES if the official is still in post on the resolution date. Disputed outcomes complicate things. Both Polymarket and Kalshi publish their resolution criteria, and the small print matters more than people think before they place a position.
Platforms covering politics markets
For US political markets, Polymarket is the deeper pool. Wider selection, higher liquidity, longer track record. Kalshi is the practical choice if you want CFTC regulation and bank-rail funding rather than crypto custody, which is particularly relevant for US-based users. UK users can trade political questions on exchange-style markets, Betfair Exchange in particular, which we cover in our legal guide for UK users.
Common questions
Are political prediction markets legal where I am?
It depends on jurisdiction. In the US, Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and operates in around 42 states, with state-level enforcement actions in a handful (Nevada, Ohio, Massachusetts). Polymarket US is invite-only and currently sports-only. UK users cannot legally use Polymarket or Kalshi but can use Betfair Exchange for political markets. See our US legal guide and UK legal guide.
How accurate are political prediction markets compared to polls?
Generally more accurate, especially in the final weeks before a vote. Markets aggregate views with skin-in-the-game, which tends to produce sharper probability estimates than polls or pundit forecasts. Markets also update continuously rather than weekly, so they reflect new information faster. They're not infallible, but on tight races they typically beat polling averages by a meaningful margin.