A ceasefire contract is a strange thing to read late in its life. The question it asks does not change, but the surface area for the question to bite on keeps shrinking. By the time you reach the last live deadline, the contract has stopped being a survey of when something might break and has become a single binary about one specific date.

That is roughly where the Trump US-Iran ceasefire market on Polymarket now sits. Three of its four dated legs, the June 8, June 12 and June 15 deadlines, have already resolved No. The only one still trading is the June 30 leg, and as of 21 June it is priced around 4%. That price reflects the situation on the ground. A US-Iran ceasefire framework, formalised in a memorandum of understanding signed on 17 June, is currently in effect, and the market is pricing only a slim chance that an official US announcement reverses it before the month closes.

What this contract actually measures

A lot of ceasefire markets get loosely described as "is the ceasefire still on?" That is not quite what this one asks. The resolution rule is narrower and more specific than that, and the narrowness matters as the deadline shrinks.

Each leg resolves Yes only if Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no US-Iran ceasefire is in effect by 11:59pm ET on the named date. A qualifying statement has to clearly say the commitment to refrain from military hostilities is no longer in place, or that the US is no longer committed to it. The bar is an official renunciation, not a media inference, not a leaked memo, not analyst chatter.

There is a second nuance the contract builds in explicitly: the mere expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without an extension does not, on its own, flip the leg to Yes. Letting a clock run out is not the same, for this contract, as an announcement that the agreement is over. Someone in an official US capacity has to say it.

That is a much higher evidentiary threshold than the headline suggests, and it shapes everything about how a reader should interpret the price on the final leg. If you want a refresher on how the wording of a resolution rule does most of the work in markets like this, our explainer on how prediction markets decide outcomes is the right starting point.

Why three legs have already gone

The June 8, June 12 and June 15 deadlines all came and went without a qualifying US announcement that the ceasefire was over. Each leg resolved No. As settled facts, they are no longer trading and no longer informative about anything except what did not happen on those specific dates.

What is left for the contract to settle on is the June 30 deadline. That leg is priced around 4% as of 21 June, which is the only as-of-dated figure worth quoting for this market. Read it for what it is: a snapshot of where the contract was sitting on one day, not a verdict on whether the ceasefire will or will not be formally renounced before the month is out.

The useful structural point is that, with three legs gone, the contract has collapsed into a single binary question. It is no longer a ladder asking "by when". It is one yes/no, on one date, about one very specific kind of statement.

Reading the final leg honestly

With one leg left, the contract is unusually clean to interpret, and unusually easy to misinterpret. Clean, because there is only one number and one date to track. Easy to misinterpret, because the price is not telling you the probability that the ceasefire "holds" in any colloquial sense. It is telling you the probability the market assigns to a particular kind of official US statement, made on or before a particular hour on a particular evening.

Those are not the same question. A ceasefire can wobble, be violated, be denounced by foreign officials, or be the subject of furious briefings from US allies and adversaries, and none of that flips this contract. Only an official US government, US military, or presidential announcement that meets the resolution criterion does.

This is also why traders should be careful with adjacent contracts. There are other Iran-related markets, including the nuclear deal contract, which has now resolved Yes after a wild few weeks and a Hormuz shipping contract still running on its own clock to the end of June. Each has its own resolution wording, its own evidentiary bar, and its own way of reacting to the same headlines. Treating them as a single "Iran trade" misreads what each contract is actually measuring. If you want to sharpen how you read these prices, our guide to implied probability lays out the basic mechanics.

What the contract can and cannot tell you

A settling market with one leg left is a different beast from an open-ended one. It cannot tell you how the next round of negotiations will go, whether anyone will defect from a quiet understanding, or whether a stray incident will tip the situation into something else entirely. It can only tell you, by the close on 30 June, whether a specific kind of statement was or was not made.

That is a narrower question than the news cycle around it. But narrowness is the point of a well-written contract. The whole reason these markets are interesting at all is that they force a fuzzy political situation into a binary you can actually price, and then settle it on evidence anyone can verify after the fact.

With three legs already settled No and one live leg trading thin into the final week, this is the moment to read the contract as it is written rather than as the news around it feels. The structural read holds: one date, one binary, one very specific resolution rule. iPredicta tracks the live US-Iran contracts across Polymarket and the major US venues, and this final June 30 leg is the one still worth watching as the deadline closes in.

Frequently asked questions

What would actually need to happen for the June 30 leg to resolve Yes?

Trump, the US government, or the US military would need to publicly and officially announce, by 11:59pm ET on 30 June, that no US-Iran ceasefire is in effect. The statement has to make clear there is no longer a commitment to refrain from military hostilities. A ceasefire simply expiring without an extension does not, on its own, satisfy the rule.

Why are three of the four legs already settled?

The June 8, June 12 and June 15 deadlines have all passed without a qualifying official US announcement that the ceasefire was over. Each of those legs has resolved No and is no longer live. Only the June 30 leg is still trading, and it is the only deadline the contract can now settle on.