Senate races priced by prediction markets, state by state.
33 states have a Senate market we can read a price from. Select one to see it. The table below carries the same figures in full.
Select a state.
Of the 34 states with a Senate market on Polymarket, 33 have traded enough to show a price. Not every state elects a senator in 2026, and we have no roster to say which, so this is a count of markets rather than of races.
▶ Why some states are missing
1 of the 34 markets sit below our $10,000 lifetime volume floor (Oregon). Below that a price moves on almost no money, so we treat it as unreadable rather than quote it.
Nothing sits marginally either side of that floor. The highest excluded market has traded $6,578 and the lowest shown $10,184, so the cut falls in an empty band rather than through a cluster.
The 16 states with no market at all are not necessarily states with no contest. We can say Polymarket carries no market for them; we cannot say whether they are voting for this office in 2026, because the roster we would check that against is not filled.
13 races, ordered by volume in that window rather than by lifetime totals. A market's whole history says where interest has been; that week says where it was.
Volume and share traded are shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 13 August 2026 | 7 day volume | Share traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas12.9% actively traded this week | James Talarico (D) | 51.5% | $98,637 | 12.9%actively traded this week |
| Michigan28.2% most of its trading has happened this week | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 59.5% | $93,646 | 28.2%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Alaska3.3% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Mary Peltola | 51% | $12,885 | 3.3%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Maine0.9% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Troy Jackson (D) | 69.5% | $10,466 | 0.9%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Georgia8.8% actively traded this week | Jon Ossoff (D) | 92.5% | $9,374 | 8.8%actively traded this week |
| Minnesota20% actively traded this week | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 92.5% | $8,655 | 20%actively traded this week |
| Montana5.8% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Republican | 92% | $6,229 | 5.8%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Iowa3.2% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Ashley Hinson (R) | 56.5% | $5,569 | 3.2%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Ohio special3.7% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Sherrod Brown (D) | 52.5% | $4,946 | 3.7%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| New Hampshire7.1% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Democrat | 86.5% | $3,054 | 7.1%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Kansas4.6% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Republican | 80% | $1,824 | 4.6%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Idaho2.2% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Republican | 96.3% | $627 | 2.2%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Illinois1.8% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Juliana Stratton (D) | 95% | $529 | 1.8%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
In most of these the price already says why.
Some races price a named candidate, others price a party. That is the market's own framing, not ours: where a leg names a party rather than a person, it usually means no candidate has been settled on yet. We show whichever the market uses.
Lifetime volume is shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 13 August 2026 | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | Republican | 90.5% | $119,134 |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) | 91% | $88,681 |
| Florida special | Republican | 87% | $67,151 |
| Colorado | Democrat | 96% | $47,965 |
| Mississippi | Republican | 92% | $35,489 |
| Tennessee | Republican | 95.7% | $24,669 |
| Massachusetts | Democrat | 96.6% | $24,225 |
| Louisiana | Republican | 93% | $23,581 |
| New Jersey | Democrat | 95.5% | $19,909 |
| Oklahoma | Republican | 95% | $19,316 |
| New Mexico | Democrat | 95.2% | $18,688 |
| Wyoming | Republican | 96.3% | $16,713 |
| Delaware | Democrat | 95.5% | $15,954 |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | 92.3% | $15,679 |
| Virginia | Democrat | 93.5% | $14,840 |
| Arkansas | Republican | 93.4% | $13,775 |
| West Virginia | Republican | 95.2% | $12,477 |
| Alabama | Republican | 94.5% | $12,205 |
| Rhode Island | Democrat | 95.5% | $10,302 |
| South Dakota | Republican | 94.2% | $10,184 |