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AP's calls for every 2026 governor race beside each venue's final price before polls closed. Polls closed on 3 November 2026. How accurate were the prediction markets? The races still being counted keep trading until each one settles under its own rules. Results are AP's calls, not ours.
AP has called 34 of the 36 governor races listed here, as read on AP's race pages at 05:55 UK time, 9 November. For each race: who AP called it for and when, and each venue's favourite at its final price before that state's polls closed. Still being counted: Alaska, Kansas.
Across the 67 called Senate and governor races, the markets' favourite at the close of polling won 64 of 67: Kalshi's 61 of 64 and polymarket.com's 63 of 66. How accurate were the prediction markets in the 2026 midterms?
Kansas governor counts as a toss-up and is left out of the record whichever way AP calls it: polymarket.com's favourite was at 60%, and Kalshi had no price. Under the rule set before the election, a race is a toss-up when no candidate is above 60%.
| Race | Called for, per AP | Called at | Kalshi favourite at close | polymarket.com favourite at close | Favourite won? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Not yet called by AP | still being counted | Democratic party 95.8% | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 96.1% | Still being counted |
| Kansas | Not yet called by AP | still being counted | no price | Ty Masterson (R) 60% toss-up | Still being counted |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville (R) | 06:36 UK time, 4 November | Tommy Tuberville 91.4% | Tommy Tuberville (R) 92.9% | Yes |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs (D) | 08:20 UK time, 4 November | Katie Hobbs 96.6% | Katie Hobbs (D) 97.9% | Yes |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | 03:40 UK time, 4 November | Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97.1% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) 97.4% | Yes |
| California | Xavier Becerra (D) | 04:00 UK time, 4 November | Xavier Becerra 99.2% | no price | Yes |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser (D) | 02:00 UK time, 4 November | Phil Weiser 99% | Phil Weiser (D) 98.9% | Yes |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont (D) | 02:17 UK time, 4 November | Ned Lamont 96.8% | Ned Lamont (D) 97.7% | Yes |
| Florida | Byron Donalds (R) | 02:09 UK time, 4 November | Byron Donalds 61.5% | Byron Donalds (R) 61.5% | Yes |
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) | 02:24 UK time, 4 November | Keisha Lance Bottoms 75% | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 74.5% | Yes |
| Hawaii | Josh Green (D) | 05:00 UK time, 4 November | Josh Green 99.6% | Josh Green (D) 98.7% | Yes |
| Idaho | Brad Little (R) | 05:36 UK time, 4 November | Brad Little 97.8% | Brad Little (R) 98.6% | Yes |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker (D) | 01:00 UK time, 4 November | JB Pritzker 97.4% | JB Pritzker (D) 98.6% | Yes |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (D) | 04:12 UK time, 4 November | Rob Sand 93.5% | Rob Sand (D) 94.5% | Yes |
| Maine | Hannah M. Pingree (D) | 04:29 UK time, 4 November | Hannah Pingree 96.7% | Hannah Pingree (D) 98% | Yes |
| Maryland | Wes Moore (D) | 01:01 UK time, 4 November | Wes Moore 99.4% | Wes Moore (D) 99.6% | Yes |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey (D) | 01:01 UK time, 4 November | Maura Healey 98.4% | Maura Healey (D) 99% | Yes |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (D) | 06:45 UK time, 4 November | Jocelyn Benson 97.2% | Jocelyn Benson (D) 98.3% | Yes |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 05:07 UK time, 4 November | Amy Klobuchar 98.8% | Amy Klobuchar (D) 98.4% | Yes |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen (R) | 07:53 UK time, 4 November | Jim Pillen 63.5% | Jim Pillen (R) 67% | Yes |
| Nevada | Aaron D. Ford (D) | 09:46 UK time, 4 November | Aaron Ford 93.8% | Aaron Ford (D) 95.1% | Yes |
| New Hampshire | Kelly Ayotte (R) | 05:42 UK time, 4 November | no price | Kelly Ayotte (R) 86% | Yes |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland (D) | 03:40 UK time, 4 November | Deb Haaland 96% | Deb Haaland (D) 97.3% | Yes |
| New York | Kathy C. Hochul (D) | 02:00 UK time, 4 November | Kathy Hochul 98.5% | Kathy Hochul (D) 99.2% | Yes |
| Ohio | Amy Acton (D) | 03:49 UK time, 4 November | Amy Acton 82.5% | Amy Acton (D) 84.5% | Yes |
| Oklahoma | Mike Mazzei (R) | 04:46 UK time, 4 November | Mike Mazzei 89.5% | Mike Mazzei (R) 90.5% | Yes |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek (D) | 08:49 UK time, 4 November | Tina Kotek 91.8% | Tina Kotek (D) 92% | Yes |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro (D) | 01:01 UK time, 4 November | Josh Shapiro 99.1% | Josh Shapiro (D) 99.5% | Yes |
| Rhode Island | Helena Buonanno Foulkes (D) | 01:32 UK time, 4 November | Helena Foulkes 97.8% | Helena Foulkes (D) 98.5% | Yes |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson (R) | 05:35 UK time, 4 November | Alan Wilson 92.1% | Alan Wilson (R) 93.8% | Yes |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden (R) | 04:45 UK time, 4 November | Larry Rhoden 98.6% | Larry Rhoden (R) 98.1% | Yes |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn (R) | 05:43 UK time, 4 November | Marsha Blackburn 90.8% | Marsha Blackburn (R) 90.3% | Yes |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa (D) | 04:17 UK time, 4 November | Greg Abbott 60.5% | Greg Abbott (R) 61.3% | No |
| Vermont | Phil Scott (R) | 05:35 UK time, 4 November | Phil Scott 62.5% | Phil Scott (R) 64.5% | Yes |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley (D) | 04:28 UK time, 4 November | David Crowley 93.7% | David Crowley (D) 94.1% | Yes |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow (R) | 02:00 UK time, 4 November | Eric Barlow 99% | Eric Barlow (R) 98.8% | Yes |
Calls: AP's race pages, linked from each state. Prices: the last two-sided midpoint on each venue before that state's polls closed, from iPredicta's own 15-minute capture; Polymarket US had no bids or asks in the capture and is not scored. Results are AP's calls, not ours.
Close races and biggest movers across all contests, including House races, which are not listed here.
1 states have a governor market we can read a price from. Select one to see it. The table below carries the same figures in full.
Select a state.
Every label here describes a market, never a contest. Not every state elected a governor in 2026, and we hold no roster of which did, so an unfilled state means only that Polymarket carries no market we can price. It does not mean there is no race there.
Of the 1 states with a governor market on Polymarket, 1 have traded enough to show a price. Not every state elected a governor in 2026, and we have no roster to say which, so this is a count of markets rather than of races.
▶ Why some states are missing
Every state with a market has traded enough to price.
Nothing sits marginally either side of that floor. The highest excluded market has traded nothing and the lowest shown $51,257, so the cut falls in an empty band rather than through a cluster.
The 49 states with no market at all are not necessarily states with no contest. We can say Polymarket carries no market for them; we cannot say whether they voted for this office in 2026, because the roster we would check that against is not filled.
0 races, ordered by volume in that window rather than by lifetime totals. A market's whole history says where interest has been; that week says where it was.
Volume and share traded are shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 15 November 2026 | 7 day volume | Share traded |
|---|
In most of these the price already says why.
Some races price a named candidate, others price a party. That is the market's own framing, not ours: where a leg names a party rather than a person, it usually means no candidate has been settled on yet. We show whichever the market uses.
Lifetime volume is shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 15 November 2026 | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | Julieta Ramírez Padilla | 72% | $51,257 |
Analysis from the iPredicta desk on the races the markets are pricing.
2026 Senate election odds from Kalshi and Polymarket: control of the chamber and the most competitive Senate races, with both venues' prices side by side.
2026 governor race odds from Kalshi and Polymarket: the most competitive states, and where the two venues disagree, with both prices side by side.
Compare 2026 House prediction markets on Kalshi and polymarket.com, including House control probabilities, seat-count markets and the closest races.
Polymarket's California governor contract has one clear leader and a long tail of sub-1% names. What the structure of the market actually tells you.
A Polymarket contract on how many House Republicans skip 2026 has settled on a clear favourite band, but the long tail is doing something interesting.
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