US Midterms
US Governor Races 2026
Governor races priced by prediction markets, state by state.
Governor races priced by prediction markets, state by state.
Close races and biggest movers across all contests — including House races, which are not listed here.
34 states have a governor market we can read a price from. Select one to see it. The table below carries the same figures in full.
Select a state.
Every label here describes a market, never a contest. Not every state elects a governor in 2026, and we hold no roster of which do, so an unfilled state means only that Polymarket carries no market we can price. It does not mean there is no race there.
Of the 35 states with a governor market on Polymarket, 34 have traded enough to show a price. Not every state elects a governor in 2026, and we have no roster to say which, so this is a count of markets rather than of races.
▶ Why some states are missing
1 of the 35 markets sit below our $10,000 lifetime volume floor (Connecticut). Below that a price moves on almost no money, so we treat it as unreadable rather than quote it.
Nothing sits marginally either side of that floor. The highest excluded market has traded $9,351 and the lowest shown $10,321, so the cut falls in an empty band rather than through a cluster.
The 15 states with no market at all are not necessarily states with no contest. We can say Polymarket carries no market for them; we cannot say whether they are voting for this office in 2026, because the roster we would check that against is not filled.
18 races, ordered by volume in that window rather than by lifetime totals. A market's whole history says where interest has been; that week says where it was.
Volume and share traded are shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 27 September 2026 | 7 day volume | Share traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California0.8% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Xavier Becerra | 95.2% | $312,950 | 0.8%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Texas51.2% most of its trading has happened this week | Greg Abbott (R) | 80.4% | $130,472 | 51.2%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Florida53.7% most of its trading has happened this week | Byron Donalds (R) | 79.5% | $121,021 | 53.7%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Georgia31.2% most of its trading has happened this week | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) | 54.5% | $40,297 | 31.2%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Ohio12.3% actively traded this week | Amy Acton (D) | 63.5% | $28,380 | 12.3%actively traded this week |
| Vermont27.8% most of its trading has happened this week | Phil Scott (R) | 83% | $27,288 | 27.8%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Arizona21.8% actively traded this week | Katie Hobbs (D) | 88.5% | $19,237 | 21.8%actively traded this week |
| Minnesota16.9% actively traded this week | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 95.5% | $14,569 | 16.9%actively traded this week |
| Nevada8.1% actively traded this week | Joe Lombardo (R) | 50.5% | $14,091 | 8.1%actively traded this week |
| Wisconsin2.2% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | David Crowley (D) | 85.5% | $13,567 | 2.2%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Kansas17.9% actively traded this week | Ty Masterson (R) | 73% | $8,140 | 17.9%actively traded this week |
| New Hampshire18.3% actively traded this week | Kelly Ayotte (R) | 93.5% | $7,183 | 18.3%actively traded this week |
| Iowa6.3% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Rob Sand (D) | 83.5% | $6,100 | 6.3%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Alabama24.5% actively traded this week | Tommy Tuberville (R) | 92.1% | $5,791 | 24.5%actively traded this week |
| Oregon3.7% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Tina Kotek (D) | 86.5% | $2,125 | 3.7%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Oklahoma4.7% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Mike Mazzei (R) | 93.5% | $1,483 | 4.7%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| New Mexico3.3% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Deb Haaland (D) | 95.5% | $1,323 | 3.3%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Tennessee9.3% actively traded this week | Marsha Blackburn (R) | 97% | $961 | 9.3%actively traded this week |
In most of these the price already says why.
Some races price a named candidate, others price a party. That is the market's own framing, not ours: where a leg names a party rather than a person, it usually means no candidate has been settled on yet. We show whichever the market uses.
Lifetime volume is shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 27 September 2026 | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (D) | 92.5% | $208,842 |
| New York | Kathy Hochul (D) | 95.5% | $127,443 |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey (D) | 96.2% | $95,050 |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes (D) | 96.6% | $69,849 |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro (D) | 97% | $49,955 |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree (D) | 95.8% | $34,864 |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden (R) | 96.6% | $26,615 |
| Idaho | Brad Little (R) | 97.4% | $26,527 |
| Maryland | Wes Moore (D) | 96.7% | $22,620 |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson (R) | 94.5% | $18,832 |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser (D) | 96.6% | $16,428 |
| Hawaii | Josh Green (D) | 98.2% | $16,364 |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen (R) | 93.5% | $14,061 |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker (D) | 98.2% | $11,898 |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow (R) | 96.7% | $11,554 |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | 97% | $11,035 |
Analysis from the iPredicta desk on the races the markets are pricing.
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