Premier League Predictions: What Prediction Markets Expect From the Opening Weekend

It may feel like the World Cup only finished yesterday, but brace yourselves: the Premier League is back.

The English top-flight gets underway on Friday, August 21, as last season’s champions Arsenal begin the defence of their title against newly-promoted Coventry City at the Emirates Stadium.

There are also matches across Saturday, Sunday and Monday to kick things off with a bang. Here we're looking at all 10 opening-weekend fixtures, taking a close look at how the leading contenders are expected to fare, along with the new boys and what the Premier League prediction markets expect from every game, and give insight into how prediction markets work.

Arsenal are the biggest favourites of the opening weekend

It won’t come as much of a surprise that holders Arsenal are rated as the most likely side to win on opening weekend.

Polymarket’s Premier League prediction market (https://polymarket.com/sports/epl/games?via=ipredicta-co) has the Gunners at an implied probability of 83% to pick up the three points, with Frank Lampard’s Coventry given just 6% in the outright win/draw/win market. The draw is the second-most likely outcome in that field at 13%.

Kalshi’s Arsenal v Coventry prediction market (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplgame/english-premier-league-game/kxeplgame-26aug21arscov) is within a point of that, with Arsenal at 83%, the draw at 12% and Coventry at 6%.

Coventry's task has been made even harder by the absence of striker Haji Wright, who is expected to miss up to three months with a quad injury after scoring 17 goals during their Championship-winning campaign.

Arsenal’s 83% chance makes them the biggest favourites of all 10 matches, but the handicap markets offer an even stronger indication of how dominant prediction-market traders expect the champions to be.

Polymarket’s Arsenal v Coventry prediction market (https://polymarket.com/sports/epl/epl-ars-cov-2026-08-21?via=ipredicta-co) gives Arsenal a 60% probability of winning by two or more goals, with 40% that they do not cover the two-goal handicap. Those are the only two outcomes of one contract, so they sum to 100 by construction.

Arsenal only slip below a 50-50 chance of winning by three or more goals when it comes to the -2.5 handicap, where the market gives them 36.5%. That leg sits in the same contract group as the -1.5 one and is easy to mistake for it, so to be explicit: -1.5 is the two-goal question at 60%, -2.5 is the three-goal question at 36.5%.

Put simply, the market gives Arsenal a little better than a one-in-three chance of winning by three or more goals.

Liverpool face tricky opener at St James’ Park

With Arsenal v Coventry rated as the most one-sided match this weekend, it’s a clash of two of the Premier League’s biggest names which is far tougher to call.

Newcastle host Liverpool in the weekend’s flagship match on Sunday afternoon, and with plenty of uncertainty surrounding both sides, perhaps it’s no surprise the Premier League prediction markets are struggling to call it.

Both teams have changed managers in the summer, and in the case of the hosts have lost key players in Sandro Tonali, Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimaraes.

Liverpool finished 11 points better off than Newcastle last season despite a largely disappointing campaign, and that’s enough for them to get a 52% chance of victory in Kalshi’s Newcastle v Liverpool prediction market (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplgame/english-premier-league-game/kxeplgame-26aug23newlfc).

Newcastle are given a one-in-four chance of winning at St James’ Park, at 25%, with the draw also at 25%.

Polymarket is telling the same story with Liverpool at 52%, Newcastle at 25% and the draw at 26%. (https://polymarket.com/sports/epl/epl-new-liv-2026-08-23?via=ipredicta-co)

Other prediction markets further illustrate how tough it could be for the visitors. Kalshi give Liverpool just a 29% chance of winning by two clear goals, while the probability of more than 3.5 goals in the game is 43%.

So while Liverpool are narrow favourites to win the match at 52% against the combined Newcastle and draw probabilities at 48%, a comfortable away victory is far from the most likely scenario.

How the Premier League title contenders are expected to fare

We’ve already seen how Arsenal and Liverpool are expected to get on, but what about the other sides expected to challenge towards the top of the table this season?

The figures show a 31-percentage-point gap between Arsenal and Chelsea, with the champions given an 83% chance of beating Coventry compared with 52% for Chelsea to beat Fulham.

Arsenal have the benefit of home advantage against a newly promoted side, while Chelsea face a west London derby away from home. But the difference also underlines the uncertainty around Xabi Alonso's first season at Stamford Bridge after Chelsea finished 10th last season.

The two prediction markets are also remarkably consistent, with Kalshi and Polymarket within a point of each other on all three fixtures: Manchester United at 71 to 72%, Manchester City at 66%, and Chelsea at 51 to 52%.

What do the markets expect from the new boys?

We’ve seen Coventry aren’t being given much of a hope away at Arsenal, and Championship play-off winners Hull are the second-least fancied side to win their opening game.

The Hull City v Manchester United prediction markets across Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/sports/epl/epl-hul-mun-2026-08-22?via=ipredicta-co) and Kalshi (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplgame/english-premier-league-game/kxeplgame-26aug22hulmun) see it very similarly, with the Tigers given an 11% implied probability of earning all three points.

A draw would likely be welcomed by the newly promoted side, but even that looks a faint hope with just a 20% probability.

The third newly promoted side, Ipswich Town, get their campaign underway against Sunderland and are by far the most fancied of the three to claim a victory. Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/sports/epl/epl-ips-sun-2026-08-22?via=ipredicta-co) gives Ipswich a 35% chance of winning against Sunderland’s 37%, with the draw at 30%.

Kalshi sees little to separate the two sides either, making Sunderland narrow favourites at 37% to Ipswich's 35%, with the draw at 29% (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplgame/english-premier-league-game/kxeplgame-26aug22ipssun).

The bigger question for Ipswich is whether they can avoid becoming one of the promoted sides to go straight back down. Kalshi's Premier League relegation prediction market (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplrelegation/english-premier-league-relegation/kxeplrelegation-27) currently has Ipswich as the second most likely team to be relegated, at 52%.

Only Hull, at 83%, are rated more likely to go down. Sunderland are on 27%. Coventry are the one side on that board we are not going to put a number against: their contract is quoted 25 bid against 54 ask, a 29-point spread, and a midpoint drawn from a book that wide is not a forecast anyone is actually offering.

That makes Saturday's meeting particularly significant: the market sees very little between Ipswich and Sunderland on the day, while also suggesting both could be involved in the relegation battle over the course of the season.

Premier League predictions: This weekend’s results according to Polymarket and Kalshi

Here’s how the Premier League prediction markets have weighed up every match this weekend - with the two markets broadly agreeing on the outcome of all 10 games, although Ipswich v Sunderland is effectively a toss-up.

Every figure in this piece was read live on the morning of Friday 21 August 2026, before any fixture had kicked off. Match markets move fastest on matchday, so treat these as a snapshot taken hours before the first whistle rather than a live quote.