Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Italy's heatwave survival guide and Polymarket's hottest-month contract at 93%
As Italians duck into supermarkets and take night tours to escape the heat, Polymarket's 2026 hottest-month-on-record contract sits at 93%. Here's what it tracks.
How LeBron James' signing reshaped NBA prediction markets
LeBron James' transfer to the Philadelphia 76ers triggered huge swings across Kalshi and Polymarket. See how NBA Championship, Eastern Conference and win-total prediction markets reacted.
Norris hit with 10-place Spa grid penalty as Polymarket prices Antonelli as Belgian GP favourite at 39%
Lando Norris takes a 10-place grid drop at Spa after a fourth power electronics unit. Polymarket's Belgian GP winner market has Kimi Antonelli out front at 39%.
France favoured at 41% against Spain as Polymarket prices Dallas semi-final as a genuine three-way
France sit at 41% against Spain in Polymarket's semi-final market, with Spain and the draw both at 30%. What the split says about the Dallas tie.
Portugal vs Spain in the World Cup round of 16, with Spain favoured at around 50 percent on Polymarket
Spain trade as clear favourites at around 50 percent over Portugal in the World Cup round of 16, with the draw at 27% and goals priced firmly above 1.5 on Polymarket.
Leclerc wins a chaotic British Grand Prix, and Polymarket's winner market settles on him
Charles Leclerc took a dramatic Silverstone win from George Russell under a late safety car, with Antonelli and Verstappen out of the points. Inside what the Polymarket contract shows.
Mexico vs England in the World Cup round of 16, and the market that refuses to pick a side
Polymarket prices Mexico vs England as one of the tightest round of 16 ties on the board, with England at 38%, Mexico at 32% and the draw at 31%.
Belgium favoured at 37% against the USA as a raucous Seattle crowd awaits the last-16 tie
Polymarket's USA vs Belgium last-16 contract is a genuine three-way split, with Belgium narrowly favoured, the hosts a couple of points back, and the draw very much alive.
Canada vs Morocco in the World Cup Round of 16, with Morocco Favoured at 57%
Morocco head into the World Cup last-16 tie with Canada as clear favourites on Polymarket. What the match-winner, goals and scoreline markets are telling us.
Nolan's Odyssey lands on Polymarket's opening-weekend ladder with the low band out front
Polymarket's opening-weekend contract for Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey has the 75-85m band leading a six-rung ladder. Here's what the pricing actually says.
Australia vs Egypt in the World Cup round of 32, with the market calling it a genuine coin-flip
Egypt lead Polymarket's Australia vs Egypt round of 32 contract at 41%, but with the draw on 34% and Australia on 27%, this fixture is priced as wide open.
Ohtani at 89% on Polymarket's 2026 NL MVP market, and what the shape of that lead really means
Polymarket's 2026 NL MVP contract has Shohei Ohtani far ahead of the field. Here is what that price shape tells you, and what it deliberately does not.