Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics, climate — written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
New Zealand are the tournament's longest shot, and the market agrees
The All Whites arrive at World Cup 2026 as the lowest-ranked side in the field. Polymarket's outright market makes that brutally clear. What does it mean for Group G?
Bitcoin's worst week since the FTX collapse, and what the prediction markets think happens next
Bitcoin is heading for its biggest weekly loss since November 2022 after a Strategy sale rattled traders. Here is what prediction markets are pricing in.
FIFA's water bottle ban, a sweltering World Cup, and the market that hasn't blinked
FIFA banned refillable bottles from World Cup 2026 stadiums days before kickoff. Fans are furious, the heat is real, but the winner market on Polymarket has barely moved.
Three friends, 10,500 miles, and a market that does not care
Three Argentina fans cycled 10,500 miles to Kansas City for the World Cup opener. The Polymarket price says the journey may not end the way they hope.
Bielsa, Uruguay and the World Cup market that keeps forgetting them
Marcelo Bielsa takes Uruguay to the 2026 World Cup in Group H, but Polymarket has the Celeste priced as an afterthought behind Spain, France and Brazil.
Excited but wary: what the host-city mood says about the World Cup market
Fans across 16 host cities tell the Guardian they're excited but angry about ticket prices and Fifa. Here's what the World Cup winner market on Polymarket actually shows.
Lamine Yamal at 18: the favourite-tier weight on a teenager who refuses the Messi script
Lamine Yamal carries Spain's World Cup hopes at 18, ducks Messi comparisons, and sits behind a 15.95% favourite tag on Polymarket. What the price implies.
The BBC's biggest-ever World Cup, and the market that already has a favourite
The BBC promises its biggest World Cup coverage ever from 11 June. Polymarket has already priced the tournament. France leads at 17%, England third at 11.45%.
Diesel, the OECD and the Iran market that won't quite settle
The OECD warns rural Britain faces diesel shortages if the Iran conflict drags on. Prediction markets are still pricing the regime question with surprising caution.
The doom-loop trade: what Polly Curtis gets right that the Starmer market misses
Polly Curtis says Britain is in a democratic doom loop. Polymarket is betting Starmer leaves office in 2026, but the exit market still prices the surface question, not the one Curtis is asking.
Yamal makes the cut: World Cup squads land, and the group-stage market sharpens
Spain name Lamine Yamal in their 2026 World Cup squad as the June 1 deadline approaches. Here's what the squad reveals mean for the knockout-stage market.
Pochettino's USMNT 26 and the knockout-stage market that won't sit still
Pochettino names his USMNT World Cup 26 with Pulisic, Adams and McKennie. Here's how the squad reshapes the knockout-stage prediction market.