Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics, climate — written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Country Roads at the World Cup and what the market really thinks of the USA
John Denver's Country Roads has become an unlikely USA anthem at the 2026 World Cup. Polymarket has the hosts at 3% to lift the trophy. Here's why.
What Polymarket's 2028 Republican nominee market is actually asking
Polymarket's 2028 Republican nominee market has Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ahead of J.D. Vance, with a long tail behind. What it measures, and what it can't.
Curacao hold Ecuador 0-0 in Kansas City, and Polymarket's Germany v Ecuador props get redrawn
Eloy Room's record-equalling save count earned Curacao their first World Cup point. Here's how it ripples through Polymarket's Germany v Ecuador prop ladder.
Strava's IPO Question Lands on Polymarket: What the Cap-Range Contract Actually Tracks
Polymarket's Strava IPO contract asks where the fitness app's market cap lands on day one. A look at the contract's structure, not the lean.
What Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee market is actually pricing
Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee contract puts Gavin Newsom out in front of a long field. What the structure of the market actually tells you.
Kraken's IPO market cap question lands on Polymarket and the field is wide open
Polymarket's Kraken IPO market cap contract spreads bets across seven dollar bands from $16B to $28B. Here's what the structure actually tells you.
Bogotá's vote inside Colombia's presidential runoff: what the Polymarket contract actually measures
A Polymarket contract on who wins Bogotá in Colombia's June 21 runoff has narrowed to a two-name question. Here's what it tracks and how it resolves.
Hungary's presidential standoff sends the Polymarket leaders contract lurching toward Starmer
A Hungarian succession row jolted Polymarket's next-leader-out contract, with Starmer suddenly the dominant name at 67%. The mechanics matter more than the move.
Polymarket puts a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by end-2026 at 28%, and the Belarus threat doesn't move the needle
Zelenskyy threatened to strike Russian relay stations in Belarus. Polymarket's end-2026 peace-deal contract sits at 28% Yes, 72% No. Here's what that means.
Lula leads Brazil's 2026 presidential market at 52% as a 2004 football match resurfaces in foreign policy lore
Polymarket has Lula at 52% to win Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, with a Bolsonaro-name field trailing. A 2004 friendly with Haiti explains the backdrop.
Polymarket's alien-disclosure contract has run out of runway, and only three legs are still alive
Three legs of Polymarket's US alien-disclosure ladder have already resolved No. What's left, what it would take, and why the contract is structurally interesting.
The 5kt Meteor Strike Market on Polymarket and What It Actually Measures
Polymarket is running a 2026 contract on whether a meteor will explode in Earth's atmosphere with at least 5 kilotons of energy. Here is what it tracks.