iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

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Sports

Colombia vs Portugal in Group K's matchday three, and the market that won't pick a winner

Portugal lead Colombia at 48% to 29% on Polymarket for the Group K decider, with both teams to score the loudest number on the board. Here's what the prices say.

27 June 2026
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Sports

Algeria vs Austria priced as the closest call in Group J as a draw leads at 47%

Polymarket has the Algeria vs Austria matchday-three fixture as Group J's tightest contest, with the draw narrowly favoured and both nations level on points.

27 June 2026
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Sports

Argentina favoured at 87% against Jordan as Group J's dead rubber meets a tournament debut

Polymarket prices Argentina as overwhelming favourites against Jordan on matchday 3 of Group J. Inside the match-winner, totals and scoreline contracts.

27 June 2026
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Politics

The Trump resignation contract on Polymarket and what it actually measures

Polymarket's Trump resignation market sits near 7% Yes as of June 27, 2026. Here's what the contract actually asks, and why the wording matters more than the price.

27 June 2026
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Geopolitics

Polymarket's Iran MOU withdrawal contract is down to two live dates

Polymarket's Iran MOU withdrawal market has lost its first leg. The June 30 and July 31 dates remain, and the contract's structure tells you what to watch.

27 June 2026
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Geopolitics

NATO's eastern flank fears a US no-show, and Polymarket's dissolution contract barely flickers

Eastern European NATO members doubt US backing under Trump, but Polymarket's NATO-dissolves-by-2027 contract sits firmly on No. Here's what the market actually measures.

27 June 2026
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Sports

A Mets firing nudged Polymarket's Phillies manager market. On this volume, read it carefully.

The Mets fired Carlos Mendoza and Polymarket's thinly traded next-Phillies-manager contract reshuffled its top names. What candidate-availability markets do and do not tell you.

26 June 2026
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Sports

Norway vs France in Group I's final round, with the market favouring France at 60%

Polymarket prices France at 60% to beat Norway in Group I's matchday three, with goals trading high and the scoreline ladder topped by 1-2 France.

26 June 2026
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Economy

Polymarket's June 2026 US inflation contract: what the CPI ladder is really asking

Polymarket's June 2026 US annual inflation market puts a precise number on the CPI question. Here is what the contract measures and where the lean sits.

26 June 2026
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Tech

How Polymarket's GPT-5.6 contract priced the gap between a release and a public release

OpenAI is gating GPT-5.6 to government-approved partners first. Polymarket's release-timing market repriced hard, because the contract's rules already drew that exact line.

26 June 2026
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Sports

Croatia favoured at 54% against Ghana, but the Group L table says they must win

Polymarket has Croatia at 54% to beat Ghana, but Ghana lead them by a point in Group L. A draw sends Ghana through as runners-up. Here is what the contract measures.

26 June 2026
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Sports

Putellas signs for London City Lionesses, and the Ballon d'Or market barely notices

Alexia Putellas has reached a deal with London City Lionesses after 14 years at Barcelona. Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market still leans heavily male.

26 June 2026