Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Portugal vs Spain in the World Cup round of 16, with Spain favoured at around 50 percent on Polymarket
Spain trade as clear favourites at around 50 percent over Portugal in the World Cup round of 16, with the draw at 27% and goals priced firmly above 1.5 on Polymarket.
Leclerc wins a chaotic British Grand Prix, and Polymarket's winner market all but calls it
Charles Leclerc took a dramatic Silverstone win from George Russell under a late safety car, with Antonelli and Verstappen out of the points. Inside what the Polymarket contract shows.
Mexico vs England in the World Cup round of 16, and the market that refuses to pick a side
Polymarket prices Mexico vs England as one of the tightest round of 16 ties on the board, with England at 38%, Mexico at 32% and the draw at 31%.
Belgium favoured at 37% against the USA as a raucous Seattle crowd awaits the last-16 tie
Polymarket's USA vs Belgium last-16 contract is a genuine three-way split, with Belgium narrowly favoured, the hosts a couple of points back, and the draw very much alive.
Canada vs Morocco in the World Cup Round of 16, with Morocco Favoured at 57%
Morocco head into the World Cup last-16 tie with Canada as clear favourites on Polymarket. What the match-winner, goals and scoreline markets are telling us.
Nolan's Odyssey lands on Polymarket's opening-weekend ladder with the low band out front
Polymarket's opening-weekend contract for Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey has the 75-85m band leading a six-rung ladder. Here's what the pricing actually says.
Australia vs Egypt in the World Cup round of 32, with the market calling it a genuine coin-flip
Egypt lead Polymarket's Australia vs Egypt round of 32 contract at 41%, but with the draw on 34% and Australia on 27%, this fixture is priced as wide open.
Ohtani at 89% on Polymarket's 2026 NL MVP market, and what the shape of that lead really means
Polymarket's 2026 NL MVP contract has Shohei Ohtani far ahead of the field. Here is what that price shape tells you, and what it deliberately does not.
Portugal favoured at 58% against Croatia as Ronaldo and Modric meet in the round of 32
Polymarket has Portugal at 58% against Croatia in the World Cup round of 32, with the draw at 26% as the likeliest single scoreline. Here is what the market is really pricing.
The Arctic sea ice market has its smallest ice bucket in front as a Tara polar expedition heads for the pack
The minimum Arctic sea ice contract on polymarket.com has the sub-4m sq km outcome leading at around 30%. Here's what the market actually measures.
A left-populist tie-up with the AfD in eastern Germany, and the Sachsen-Anhalt market that isn't buying it
Polymarket's Sachsen-Anhalt second-place contract sits heavily on one favourite as talk of a BSW-AfD pact swirls ahead of the September 2026 Landtag vote.
A Ukrainian charged over Nord Stream, and the pipeline market that has stopped pretending
German prosecutors have charged a Ukrainian over the Nord Stream blasts. Polymarket's contract on the pipeline restarting by 2027 sits near zero. Here's why.