Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics, climate — written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Hungary's June 30 presidency contract and the question it's really asking
Polymarket's contract on whether Tamas Sulyok exits the Hungarian presidency before June 30 turns on a strict resolution rule. Here's what it measures.
Polymarket's Bitcoin June 22-28 ladder: how the weekly price contract actually settles
Polymarket's Bitcoin June 22-28 contract is a price ladder of rungs above and below current levels. Here's what it tracks and how it resolves.
Argentina favoured at 68% against Austria as Group J's second matchday lines up in Houston
Argentina open as clear 68% favourites against Austria in Group J's second round, but Polymarket prices the draw and goals markets closer than the moneyline suggests.
The Trump US-Iran ceasefire contract is down to one live deadline, and it's the longest of them all
Three legs of Polymarket's Trump US-Iran ceasefire contract have settled No. Only the June 30 deadline remains live, and the market is pricing it accordingly.
What Polymarket's 'Largest Company' Contract Is Really Asking on 30 June
Polymarket's Largest Company end of June contract resolves on 30 June 2026. Here is what it measures, how it settles, and why the lean looks the way it does.
Japan vs Sweden Is Polymarket's Tightest Matchday Three Game
Polymarket reads Japan v Sweden as the tightest game of Group F's final round: Japan a nose ahead at 48%, the draw at 29%, Sweden on 26%, all to play for.
Ventuals' token launch question rolls forward as two deadline legs expire unmet
Polymarket's Ventuals token launch contract has two resolved-No legs and three active dates left. A look at what the structure actually asks.
Becerra Leads California's 2026 Governor Market at 89% on Polymarket
Polymarket's California governor contract has one clear leader and a long tail of sub-1% names. What the structure of the market actually tells you.
Polymarket's 2026 MLB ERA leader contract is a wide-open scrap with one quiet favourite
Polymarket's 2026 MLB ERA leader market gives Cristopher Sánchez the slimmest of edges over Shohei Ohtani, with a long tail of arms behind them.
Polymarket's Sumy Capture Contract Has One Live Leg Left, and It Sits at 12%
Polymarket's Sumy capture contract has two resolved-no legs and one live question left: a March 2027 deadline trading around 12% as of June 2026.
Polymarket's MLS Defender of the Year contract is wide open, and that is the point
Polymarket's 2026 MLS Defender of the Year market shows a packed leaderboard with no runaway favourite. Here is what that flat field actually tells you.
People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026 lands on Polymarket, and the field is a genuine eight-way scrum
Polymarket's People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026 contract has eight named contenders and no runaway favourite. What the market is actually pricing, and why.