iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

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Politics

Netanyahu rejects Trump's Gaza plan, and the Ukraine peace-deal market barely moves

The White House shrugged off Israel's rejection of its Gaza plan. On Polymarket, the Ukraine peace deal contract still leans firmly against a signed agreement by year-end.

12 August 2026
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Sports

PSG's UEFA Super Cup opener against Aston Villa, and what Polymarket makes of it

Paris Saint-Germain start their treble defence in the UEFA Super Cup against Aston Villa. Polymarket has PSG as clear favourites, but not overwhelmingly so.

12 August 2026
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Sports

Three things prediction markets got right at the 2026 World Cup

What the biggest prediction markets got right at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, from Spain's triumph to Germany's early exit and the USA's home advantage.

12 August 2026
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Culture

Iran's internet blackout contract on Polymarket: what the Cloudflare-anchored ladder is actually measuring

Polymarket's Iran total internet blackout market resolves via Cloudflare Radar bytes-transferred data. Inside the ladder's remaining rungs and what the July leg's settlement means.

12 August 2026
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Politics

What Polymarket's Russian State Duma seat-gain contract is actually measuring

Polymarket's contract on which party gains most seats in Russia's 2026 State Duma vote is really a question about the country's managed political system.

11 August 2026
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Economy

Prediction markets processed a record $50.6 billion in July - three key areas analysed

Prediction markets processed a record $50.6 billion in July. Discover why Apple vs NVIDIA, Bitcoin and the US Midterms became three of the month's biggest prediction markets.

11 August 2026
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Crypto

Bitcoin's August 10-16 price ladder: what the Polymarket contract actually asks

Polymarket's Bitcoin price contract for the week of August 10-16 asks a simple question with a laddered answer. Here is how the rungs work and what to watch.

11 August 2026
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Geopolitics

Russia's ban on Yabloko and the Polymarket contract asking a judgement call

Russia's Supreme Court barred Yabloko on 10 August 2026. A Polymarket contract on whether the ban is 'effective' by 17 September sits at a heavy lean, but the appeal is live.

11 August 2026
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Sports

4 Prediction Markets to Watch in August 2026

The biggest prediction markets to watch in August, including the Premier League, US CPI inflation, football transfer news and NFL pre-season markets, and why they're likely to move.

6 August 2026
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Economy

After the UAE walked, Polymarket makes a second OPEC exit this year a long shot

The UAE left OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May after 59 years. Polymarket's contract on a second member following it this year leans heavily to No, and the war windfall is part of why.

5 August 2026
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Geopolitics

Kyiv's deadliest night in weeks, and the Polymarket contract on a Ukraine-Russia deal before the end of 2026

Polymarket's contract on a Ukraine-Russia deal before the end of 2026 sits at 19% Yes, barely moved by this week's strikes on Kyiv. What the resolution text actually requires, and why escalation is not reading as diplomacy.

5 August 2026
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Climate

London's August 5 temperature contract has picked its rung, and the ladder adds up to 103

With hours left before it resolves, Polymarket's London peak-temperature ladder has 25°C at 62% and the whole board summing to 103. What that overround is telling you.

5 August 2026