Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics, climate — written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
‘Obsession’ tops the festival-acquisition record, and the 2026 box-office market shrugs
Focus Features' Toronto pickup ‘Obsession’ has grossed $225.5m globally, beating ‘Fahrenheit 9/11’. What that means for the 2026 highest-grossing-film market.
Idris Elba shuts down the Bond rumour, and the market that has already given up
Idris Elba says the 007 conversation was 'never legit'. Polymarket traders agree: 90% now back 'No Bond chosen' as the casting drift drags on.
Zverev wins Paris, Sinner stays Wimbledon favourite: why the grass market barely moved
Alexander Zverev just won the French Open. Jannik Sinner, who lost in round two, is still the Wimbledon favourite. Here's why the market held steady off Paris.
Burnham's market lead, Reform's wobble, and the Makerfield by-election
The betting market makes Andy Burnham a clear favourite in Makerfield, even as constituency polling stays tighter. What the prediction market is pricing, and why.
Petrol at £1.58 and the WTI contract pricing a supply shock
UK petrol is up around 20% this year as crude climbs on the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. Here is what the Polymarket WTI contract is pricing for June 2026, and why the range is so wide.
Iraq arrive in Group I behind France, Senegal and Norway, priced as the clear outsiders
Iraq head to their second World Cup in Group I with France, Senegal and Norway. The advancement market has them as the group's clear outsider, and the maths is brutal.
Scotland thrash Bolivia, but the Group C knockout market still rates them outsiders
Scotland beat Bolivia in a tune-up game a week out from their first World Cup since 1998. The knockout-stage market on Polymarket is not impressed.
England's flat friendly under Tuchel: one warm-up left, and the knockout market still prices a stroll
Phil McNulty calls England's friendly a training game. With one warm-up left before the World Cup, the Polymarket knockout contract is still priced for a stroll.
Antonelli's Monaco pole and the prediction market that just got a jolt
Kimi Antonelli beat Max Verstappen to pole at Monaco. Here's what the qualifying shock means for the Polymarket pole contract and Sunday's race odds.
Bitcoin's 2026 Price Market Lurches From 10% to 81%, and the Question Is Which Number
Polymarket's Bitcoin 2026 price market swung 71 points in a session. We unpack what the contract actually resolves on, and why the move matters.
The wallchart is out, and the World Cup market has already picked its favourites
The Guardian's 2026 World Cup wallchart lands with 48 teams to fill in. Polymarket has already drawn its own bracket, with Spain and France level on top at 16%.
The Home Office can't count, and the snap election market just noticed
The Home Office admits it has lost track of migrants with no right to be in the UK. Why that admission matters for the snap UK general election market on Kalshi.