Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Portugal favoured at 58% against Croatia as Ronaldo and Modric meet in the round of 32
Polymarket has Portugal at 58% against Croatia in the World Cup round of 32, with the draw at 26% as the likeliest single scoreline. Here is what the market is really pricing.
The Arctic sea ice market has its smallest ice bucket in front as a Tara polar expedition heads for the pack
The minimum Arctic sea ice contract on polymarket.com has the sub-4m sq km outcome leading at around 30%. Here's what the market actually measures.
A left-populist tie-up with the AfD in eastern Germany, and the Sachsen-Anhalt market that isn't buying it
Polymarket's Sachsen-Anhalt second-place contract sits heavily on one favourite as talk of a BSW-AfD pact swirls ahead of the September 2026 Landtag vote.
A Ukrainian charged over Nord Stream, and the pipeline market that has stopped pretending
German prosecutors have charged a Ukrainian over the Nord Stream blasts. Polymarket's contract on the pipeline restarting by 2027 sits near zero. Here's why.
Rayner's devolution speech lands as Polymarket's next PM contract sits almost entirely on Burnham
Angela Rayner pitched a Burnham-style devolution agenda in her first major speech since Starmer's resignation. Polymarket's next PM contract is priced one way.
Belgium favoured but not runaway against Senegal as the World Cup last 32 opens
Belgium priced at 46% against Senegal at 26% on Polymarket for their World Cup round of 32 tie, with the draw live at 30% and goals expected.
England favoured at 77% against DR Congo as the round of 32 opens Group L's knockout run
Polymarket makes England a clear 77% favourite over DR Congo in the World Cup round of 32. Inside the goals, scoreline, and both-teams-to-score prices.
XRP's July 6 Price Contract on Polymarket and What the Ladder Actually Asks
Polymarket's XRP price ladder for July 6 asks a narrow, mechanical question. Here's what the contract measures, how it settles, and where the lean sits.
Mexico vs Ecuador in the World Cup round of 32, and the market that refuses to call it
Mexico face Ecuador in the 2026 World Cup round of 32. Polymarket prices a competitive knockout: Mexico 44%, the draw 34%, Ecuador 23% as of 30 June.
LeBron's exit from the Lakers crashes onto Polymarket's next-team contract
Polymarket's LeBron next-team market lurched on the free-agency news. Here's what the contract actually tracks, and what the lean says.
Tirana Clashes Escalate and Polymarket's Rama Exit Contract Edges Up
Protesters clashed with police in Tirana on Tuesday. Polymarket's contract on Edi Rama leaving office by year-end 2026 ticked up to 31%. Here is what it tells us.
France favoured at 77% against Sweden as the round of 32 opens with a clear hierarchy
France enter the World Cup round of 32 against Sweden as heavy favourites on Polymarket, with the draw and an upset both priced as live risks but not equal ones.