Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
MrBeast's day-two view count and the Polymarket contract that has picked a lane
A Polymarket contract is pricing the 48-hour view count of MrBeast's latest YouTube video. Here is what it measures and how it resolves.
The Polymarket contract ranking AI labs by Chatbot Arena, and what June 30 actually settles
A Polymarket contract resolves on June 30 by Chatbot Arena's leaderboard. Here is what it measures, what it doesn't, and how to read the snapshot.
The Hormuz shipping contract that asks a quietly enormous question
A Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic turns a 7-day moving average into a tradable proxy for one of the world's most-watched chokepoints.
Japan hold the Netherlands 2-2 and Group F opens with two sides level on a point
Netherlands 2-2 Japan in Group F: Van Dijk, Summerville, Nakamura and Kamada's 88th-minute equaliser, and what the Polymarket group winner contract is showing.
Anthropic suspends Claude Fable 5 worldwide after a US export-control order, and Polymarket prices the timing
Polymarket traders are pricing when Anthropic restores Claude Fable 5 for US customers. The export-control order, the likely return timing, and the odds.
Netherlands favoured but not runaway against Japan, and the goals market can't decide
Polymarket has Netherlands ahead of Japan in their Group F opener, but only narrowly, and the totals and scoreline ladders tell a more interesting story.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador: the World Cup opener nobody can call
Polymarket has Ivory Coast vs Ecuador priced as one of the tightest matches of the World Cup group stage. The exact-score ladder shows why.
Qatar 1-1 Switzerland: the draw nobody priced in, and the market that settled around it
Switzerland were the pre-match favourites against Qatar. The Polymarket ladder settled to a 1-1 draw, with goals under 2.5 and both teams scoring. Here is how it called it.
Australia stun Turkey, USA crush Paraguay, and Group D reprices in a single afternoon
Australia beat Turkey 2-0 and the USA thrashed Paraguay 4-1 on World Cup matchday one. Polymarket's Group D winner market repriced sharply within hours.
Brazil held by Morocco, Scotland edge Haiti, and Group C reshuffles in real time
Brazil drew 1-1 with Morocco and Scotland beat Haiti 1-0. The Polymarket Group C winner contract has already redrawn the pecking order. Here is what moved.
The Knicks Just Won the NBA Championship, and Polymarket Settled the Bet
Polymarket's 2026 NBA Champion contract resolved to the New York Knicks after a 16-point swing closed a market that had hung at 57% only hours earlier.
Haiti vs Scotland: the market makes Scotland the clear favourite, but not the formality
Polymarket prices Scotland at 64% to beat Haiti in their Group C World Cup opener on 13 June. The draw and goals markets tell the rest of the story.