Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
The Arctic sea ice market on Polymarket is asking a question scientists have been asking for years
Polymarket's Arctic sea ice contract puts a price on whether 2026 sets a record low minimum. A look at what the market measures and why it matters.
Variational's token launch question rolls forward as the 2025 deadline shuts
Polymarket's Variational token launch market has settled its first leg. Here is what the rolling deadline contract actually measures, and why it matters.
Olivia Miles at 98% on Polymarket's WNBA Rookie of the Year market
Polymarket's 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year contract has one name doing almost all the work. What the structure of a top-heavy futures market actually tells you.
Burnham at 87% on Polymarket as Reform's Makerfield candidate faces a social-media row
Polymarket prices Andy Burnham at 87% to win the Makerfield by-election as the Independent reports unearthed posts from the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon.
Portugal heavy favourites against Congo DR, but the scoreline market is anything but settled
Polymarket prices Portugal at 77% to beat Congo DR in their Group K opener, yet the exact-score ladder is fragmented and the goals total sits on a knife edge.
England's 96% knockout-stage contract, priced before the Dallas opener
Polymarket prices England at 96% to reach the World Cup 2026 last 32 as Tuchel's side kick off in Dallas. What the settling Group L contract still measures.
Polymarket's Republican retirement count sits at 36 to 39, with a non-trivial tail above 44
A Polymarket contract on how many House Republicans skip 2026 has settled on a clear favourite band, but the long tail is doing something interesting.
The FedEx Cup Winner Market Is a Thirty-Name Lottery, and Polymarket Just Concentrated It at the Top
Polymarket's FedEx Cup Playoffs winner market lists 30 names but the probability is bunched at the top. Here's what the contract actually measures.
The birthright citizenship case at the Supreme Court, and the Polymarket contract pricing it as a near-certainty
A Polymarket contract on Trump's birthright citizenship executive order is heavily leaning one way. Here's what the market is actually measuring, and what it isn't.
California's billionaire wealth tax trades at 19% on Polymarket, and that figure means something different to a poll
A 52% poll, a 19% market price. Here is how to read Polymarket's California billionaire wealth tax contract without mistaking probability for sentiment.
Saudi Arabia hold Uruguay 1-1 in Miami, and Group H heads into matchday two with all four teams level
Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay leaves every Group H side on a point. Polymarket's group-winner and advancement contracts moved very differently, and here's why.
Polymarket's Starship 2026 launch count puts a hard ceiling on the year
Polymarket's market on SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 leans heavily toward single digits. What the contract is really measuring.