iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

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Politics

What Polymarket's Russian State Duma seat-gain contract is actually measuring

Polymarket's contract on which party gains most seats in Russia's 2026 State Duma vote is really a question about the country's managed political system.

11 August 2026
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Economy

Prediction markets processed a record $50.6 billion in July - three key areas analysed

Prediction markets processed a record $50.6 billion in July. Discover why Apple vs NVIDIA, Bitcoin and the US Midterms became three of the month's biggest prediction markets.

11 August 2026
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Crypto

Bitcoin's August 10-16 price ladder: what the Polymarket contract actually asks

Polymarket's Bitcoin price contract for the week of August 10-16 asks a simple question with a laddered answer. Here is how the rungs work and what to watch.

11 August 2026
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Geopolitics

Russia's ban on Yabloko and the Polymarket contract asking a judgement call

Russia's Supreme Court barred Yabloko on 10 August 2026. A Polymarket contract on whether the ban is 'effective' by 17 September sits at a heavy lean, but the appeal is live.

11 August 2026
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Sports

4 Prediction Markets to Watch in August 2026

The biggest prediction markets to watch in August, including the Premier League, US CPI inflation, football transfer news and NFL pre-season markets, and why they're likely to move.

6 August 2026
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Economy

After the UAE walked, Polymarket makes a second OPEC exit this year a long shot

The UAE left OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May after 59 years. Polymarket's contract on a second member following it this year leans heavily to No, and the war windfall is part of why.

5 August 2026
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Geopolitics

Kyiv's deadliest night in weeks, and the Polymarket contract on a Ukraine-Russia deal before the end of 2026

Polymarket's contract on a Ukraine-Russia deal before the end of 2026 sits at 19% Yes, barely moved by this week's strikes on Kyiv. What the resolution text actually requires, and why escalation is not reading as diplomacy.

5 August 2026
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Climate

London's August 5 temperature contract has picked its rung, and the ladder adds up to 103

With hours left before it resolves, Polymarket's London peak-temperature ladder has 25°C at 62% and the whole board summing to 103. What that overround is telling you.

5 August 2026
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Climate

Italy's heatwave survival guide and Polymarket's hottest-month contract at 93%

As Italians duck into supermarkets and take night tours to escape the heat, Polymarket's 2026 hottest-month-on-record contract sits at 93%. Here's what it tracks.

5 August 2026
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Sports

How LeBron James' signing reshaped NBA prediction markets

LeBron James' transfer to the Philadelphia 76ers triggered huge swings across Kalshi and Polymarket. See how NBA Championship, Eastern Conference and win-total prediction markets reacted.

4 August 2026
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Sports

Norris hit with 10-place Spa grid penalty as Polymarket prices Antonelli as Belgian GP favourite at 39%

Lando Norris takes a 10-place grid drop at Spa after a fourth power electronics unit. Polymarket's Belgian GP winner market has Kimi Antonelli out front at 39%.

17 July 2026
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Sports

France favoured at 41% against Spain as Polymarket prices Dallas semi-final as a genuine three-way

France sit at 41% against Spain in Polymarket's semi-final market, with Spain and the draw both at 30%. What the split says about the Dallas tie.

14 July 2026