iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

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Economy

Polymarket's September Fed contract climbed for four days and did not blink at the CPI print

A Polymarket contract on the Fed's September 2026 decision rose from 60.5% to 74.5% over 72 hours to 15 August, the end of a four-day climb that ran straight through a CPI release.

15 August 2026
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Politics

2026 Midterm Prediction Markets: What lessons can we take from 2024 election?

What can the 2024 US election teach us about 2026 midterm prediction markets? Explore how markets reacted to Biden, Trump and changing political information.

15 August 2026
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Politics

The BBC's Panorama subpoena fight and Polymarket's Trump impeachment contract

The BBC wants Trump's family to give evidence in the Panorama lawsuit over his 6 January speech. Polymarket's impeachment contract leans one way as of mid-August.

15 August 2026
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Politics

Wyoming's Republican primary for governor: what the Polymarket contract is actually measuring

Wyoming Republicans pick their gubernatorial nominee on 18 August 2026. Here's how the Polymarket contract resolves and what it tracks as the deadline nears.

14 August 2026
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Sports

UFC 330 Predictions: What Prediction Markets expect to see in Philadelphia

UFC 330 predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi, including Makhachev vs Garry, Dern vs Robertson and the biggest favourites and underdogs on the card

14 August 2026
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Politics

Wisconsin's primary was decided by four tenths of a point. The market pricing the general is trading under $2,000 a day.

David Crowley won Wisconsin's Democratic primary by four tenths of a point. Three days on, the Polymarket contract on the general election has traded $1,948 in twenty-four hours.

14 August 2026
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Politics

The Clacton by-election, Count Binface, and what the Polymarket contract is really asking

A Polymarket contract on Count Binface's Clacton vote share leans toward the 10 to 20 percent band as polls close. Here is what that shape actually measures.

13 August 2026
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Politics

Polymarket's Trump-in-New-York word market and what it actually measures

Polymarket is running a market on which words Donald Trump will use during his scheduled New York remarks on 14 August 2026. Here is what it tracks and how it resolves.

13 August 2026
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Sports

Islam Makhachev is a heavy favourite over Ian Machado Garry on Polymarket ahead of UFC 330

Ahead of UFC 330, Polymarket has Islam Makhachev as a clear favourite against Ian Machado Garry. Here is what the fight contract is actually pricing in.

13 August 2026
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Climate

The Ebola outbreak is on track to be the deadliest ever, and Polymarket's pandemic contract barely moves

Polymarket's Ebola pandemic contract sits heavily on 'No' as of August 2026, even as the WHO says the current outbreak is on track to become the deadliest ever recorded.

13 August 2026
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Sports

Britain's dressage team book their LA28 ticket, and Polymarket's medal-count contract barely notices

Britain's dressage silver at Aachen locks in a spot at LA28. Polymarket's contract on whether the Games hit 177 golds by 25 July 2028 leans firmly yes.

13 August 2026
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Sports

What Polymarket's 2026 MLB triples leader market is actually asking

Polymarket's 2026 MLB triples leader contract points hard at one name. Here is what the market is really measuring, and why the tiebreaker rules matter.

13 August 2026