Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
A Burnham cabinet contract on Polymarket, and what the Robbins story actually changes
With Starmer resigned and Burnham the frontrunner to replace him, Polymarket's Burnham cabinet contract is pricing an imminent question. Here's what it measures.
Polymarket's June 30 Iran visit contract and the question it's really asking
Polymarket's 'Who will enter Iran by June 30?' contract counts down to a hard deadline. Here's what it actually measures and how it resolves.
Laso Finance's MetaDAO raise and the Polymarket ladder counting the commitments
A Polymarket ladder is tracking total commitments to the Laso Finance public sale on MetaDAO. Here's what the contract actually measures and why structure matters.
Germany favoured at 63% against Ecuador as Group E heads into matchday three
Polymarket prices Germany clear at 63% over Ecuador on matchday three of Group E, with the draw at 20% and total goals over 2.5 trading near 60%.
Ivory Coast favoured at 83% against Curaçao as Group E's final round leaves both sides with work to do
Polymarket prices Ivory Coast as heavy favourites over debutants Curaçao in matchday 3 of Group E. Inside the odds, the stakes, and what the market expects.
The Warsh Fed market sits at 89% on Polymarket, and the FT's ten tensions explain why
Polymarket's combined Fed chair and rate contract favours Kevin Warsh at a heavy lean, while the FT maps the trade-offs a Warsh-led Fed cannot wish away.
Bab el-Mandeb's closure contract is running out of calendar, and the September leg is the last one standing
Polymarket's Bab el-Mandeb closure contract has burned through its near-term deadlines without resolving Yes. Only the September 30 leg is still live, and it sits low.
Polymarket's Knesset dissolution ladder is down to three live dates
Five legs of Polymarket's Israeli parliament dissolution ladder have resolved No. Only three dates remain, and the contract is now a narrow window market.
London's heatwave hits the Polymarket thermometer, and the contract just narrowed sharply
As red warnings spread across England, a Polymarket contract on London's 24 June peak temperature repriced hard. Here's what the ladder is actually saying.
Hungary's June 30 presidency contract and the question it's really asking
Polymarket's contract on whether Tamas Sulyok exits the Hungarian presidency before June 30 turns on a strict resolution rule. Here's what it measures.
Polymarket's Bitcoin June 22-28 ladder: how the weekly price contract actually settles
Polymarket's Bitcoin June 22-28 contract is a price ladder of rungs above and below current levels. Here's what it tracks and how it resolves.
Argentina favoured at 68% against Austria as Group J's second matchday lines up in Houston
Argentina open as clear 68% favourites against Austria in Group J's second round, but Polymarket prices the draw and goals markets closer than the moneyline suggests.