Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics, climate — written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Brazil held by Morocco, Scotland edge Haiti, and Group C reshuffles in real time
Brazil drew 1-1 with Morocco and Scotland beat Haiti 1-0. The Polymarket Group C winner contract has already redrawn the pecking order. Here is what moved.
The Knicks Just Won the NBA Championship, and Polymarket Settled the Bet
Polymarket's 2026 NBA Champion contract resolved to the New York Knicks after a 16-point swing closed a market that had hung at 57% only hours earlier.
Haiti vs Scotland: the market makes Scotland the clear favourite, but not the formality
Polymarket prices Scotland at 64% to beat Haiti in their Group C World Cup opener on 13 June. The draw and goals markets tell the rest of the story.
Germany vs Curaçao: the World Cup mismatch the market has all but priced as a formality
Polymarket puts Germany at 94% to beat Curaçao in their World Cup Group E opener. We unpack the moneyline, the goals lines and the scoreline ladder.
Curaçao arrive as the smallest nation ever at a World Cup, and the market has them at the floor
Curaçao have made the 2026 World Cup as the smallest country ever to qualify. The tournament-winner market on Polymarket prices them at the absolute basement.
Polymarket's US-Iran nuclear deal contract rips from 20% to 44% on $830k volume
Polymarket's US-Iran nuclear deal market jumped 24 points to 44% on thin volume. What the repricing actually says about the diplomatic odds before 30 June.
Canada draw Bosnia 1-1 in Toronto and the Group B market still belongs to Switzerland
Canada's first ever men's World Cup point came in a 1-1 draw with Bosnia in Toronto. The Polymarket Group B winner market repriced, but Switzerland still lead.
Group A crystallises: Mexico firms, South Korea pulls clear, Czechia and South Africa collapse
Two matches into the 2026 World Cup and Polymarket's Group A winner market has redrawn itself. Mexico to 66%, South Korea to 32.5%, the bottom two gone.
SpaceX is about to price the largest IPO ever, and prediction markets already think it's cheap
SpaceX prices its IPO tonight at roughly $1.75 trillion. Polymarket gives 64% odds the first-day close lands above $2 trillion. Here's what that gap means.
Brazil at 19% to reach the World Cup final, and why the market still treats them as outsiders
Brazil sit fourth on Polymarket's nation-to-reach-final market at around 19%, behind France, Spain and England. Here's what the numbers say about Ancelotti's side.
Argentina, the holders, and the World Cup market that won't quite call them favourites
Argentina trade around 19% to reach the 2026 World Cup final on Polymarket as of 10 June. The holders are in the mix, just not at the front of it.
Polymarket's SPY June Market Is a Touch Ladder, and a Fresh High Is the Long Shot
How Polymarket's June SPY touch ladder works: the June high is already on the board, so a fresh peak prices as the long shot and a dip as the live case.