Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Polymarket's June 2026 US inflation contract: what the CPI ladder is really asking
Polymarket's June 2026 US annual inflation market puts a precise number on the CPI question. Here is what the contract measures and where the lean sits.
How Polymarket's GPT-5.6 contract priced the gap between a release and a public release
OpenAI is gating GPT-5.6 to government-approved partners first. Polymarket's release-timing market repriced hard, because the contract's rules already drew that exact line.
Croatia favoured at 54% against Ghana, but the Group L table says they must win
Polymarket has Croatia at 54% to beat Ghana, but Ghana lead them by a point in Group L. A draw sends Ghana through as runners-up. Here is what the contract measures.
Putellas signs for London City Lionesses, and the Ballon d'Or market barely notices
Alexia Putellas has reached a deal with London City Lionesses after 14 years at Barcelona. Polymarket's 2026 Ballon d'Or market still leans heavily male.
A Burnham cabinet contract on Polymarket, and what the Robbins story actually changes
With Starmer resigned and Burnham the frontrunner to replace him, Polymarket's Burnham cabinet contract is pricing an imminent question. Here's what it measures.
Polymarket's June 30 Iran visit contract and the question it's really asking
Polymarket's 'Who will enter Iran by June 30?' contract counts down to a hard deadline. Here's what it actually measures and how it resolves.
Laso Finance's MetaDAO raise and the Polymarket ladder counting the commitments
A Polymarket ladder is tracking total commitments to the Laso Finance public sale on MetaDAO. Here's what the contract actually measures and why structure matters.
Germany favoured at 63% against Ecuador as Group E heads into matchday three
Polymarket prices Germany clear at 63% over Ecuador on matchday three of Group E, with the draw at 20% and total goals over 2.5 trading near 60%.
Ivory Coast favoured at 83% against Curaçao as Group E's final round leaves both sides with work to do
Polymarket prices Ivory Coast as heavy favourites over debutants Curaçao in matchday 3 of Group E. Inside the odds, the stakes, and what the market expects.
The Warsh Fed market sits at 89% on Polymarket, and the FT's ten tensions explain why
Polymarket's combined Fed chair and rate contract favours Kevin Warsh at a heavy lean, while the FT maps the trade-offs a Warsh-led Fed cannot wish away.
Bab el-Mandeb's closure contract is running out of calendar, and the September leg is the last one standing
Polymarket's Bab el-Mandeb closure contract has burned through its near-term deadlines without resolving Yes. Only the September 30 leg is still live, and it sits low.
Polymarket's Knesset dissolution ladder is down to three live dates
Five legs of Polymarket's Israeli parliament dissolution ladder have resolved No. Only three dates remain, and the contract is now a narrow window market.