A silhouetted American football quarterback in the throwing motion, arm drawn back with the ball in hand, lit from behind by a stadium floodlight bank in heavy rain and mist, the left of the frame empty and near-black.

NFL 2026

NFL prediction markets

Name: NFL 2026 season prediction market prices on Kalshi and Polymarket
Creator: iPredicta

14 NFL games this week. Here is what the money thinks will happen: San Francisco 49ers to win it all at 17% on Kalshi, every game this week priced, and the places where two markets are giving two answers to the same question.

Next up · Sunday 25 October

Cincinnati Bengals 46.5%

Baltimore Ravens 52.5%

Kalshi's price for each side to win, as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC

This week's games → Where the two crowds disagree

Note, 8 September 2026. The NFL wrote to Kalshi and Polymarket on 4 September asking them to withdraw contracts on injuries, officiating and broadcast mentions, its second such letter since March. None of those markets is on this page. The outrights, win totals and moneylines here are the ones the league has not objected to. ABC News, 4 September 2026.

Where the two crowds disagree

Polymarket's traders make Patrick Mahomes a 10% shot at MVP. Kalshi's have Mahomes at 7.5%. Two markets are giving two answers to the same question, and they cannot both be right. The same is true of the other 3 below.

Each card is a place where the two order books do not overlap, so neither crowd would take the other's price. A disagreement is not a trade: fees, access and settlement differ between the venues.

0.9 pts apart

Patrick Mahomes

to win MVP

7.5%

10%

Polymarket's best bid, 8.9%, is above Kalshi's best ask, 8%.

0.9 pts apart

Caleb Williams

to win MVP

3.5%

Polymarket's best bid, 4.9%, is above Kalshi's best ask, 4%.

0.7 pts apart

Brock Purdy

to win MVP

25.5%

27.7%

Polymarket's best bid, 26.7%, is above Kalshi's best ask, 26%.

0.7 pts apart

Dak Prescott

to win MVP

0.5%

2.1%

Polymarket's best bid, 1.7%, is above Kalshi's best ask, 1%.

Prices as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC. Only legs with at least 10,000 Kalshi contracts and $10,000 of Polymarket volume are considered; a gap that only exists between mid prices is not shown.

This week's games

14 games from 23 October 2026. Kalshi's price for each side to win; the two sides of a game are separate order books and need not sum to 100. Dates are the US game date.

Sun 25 Oct

Cincinnati Bengals46.5%

at Baltimore Ravens52.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Cleveland Browns53.5%

at Tennessee Titans45.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Denver Broncos66.5%

at Arizona Cardinals33.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Green Bay Packers37.5%

at Detroit Lions61.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Indianapolis Colts28.5%

at Minnesota Vikings71.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Kansas City Chiefs43.5%

at Seattle Seahawks56.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Los Angeles Rams63.5%

at Las Vegas Raiders36.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Miami Dolphins33.5%

at New York Jets66.5%

Sun 25 Oct

New York Giants19.5%

at Houston Texans79.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Pittsburgh Steelers62.5%

at New Orleans Saints37.5%

Sun 25 Oct

San Francisco 49ers59.5%

at Atlanta Falcons41.5%

Sun 25 Oct

Tampa Bay Buccaneers41.5%

at Carolina Panthers59.5%

Mon 26 Oct

Dallas Cowboys65.5%

at Philadelphia Eagles35.5%

Thu 29 Oct

Carolina Panthers42%

at Green Bay Packers60.5%

As at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC.

Season futures

Who wins it all, who is MVP, and the four awards. Kalshi throughout; Polymarket where it prices the same outcome. Kalshi volumes are in contracts traded, not dollars.

Super Bowl LXI

14 February 2027, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. Top 8 of 32 by the Kalshi price.

Team	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	Kalshi contractslifetime
San Francisco 49ers	17%	15.4%	11,621,418
Buffalo Bills	11%	10.5%	9,619,390
Kansas City Chiefs	10.5%	11.4%	8,044,585
Los Angeles Rams	6.5%	6.5%	12,477,055
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5%	6.1%	6,142,556
Chicago Bears	6.5%	5.4%	9,997,842
Baltimore Ravens	6.5%	6.8%	6,142,267
Seattle Seahawks	5.5%	5.5%	7,521,880
Minnesota Vikings	4.5%	3.8%	6,825,002
Denver Broncos	4.5%	3.8%	7,426,173
New England Patriots	3.5%	3.6%	4,799,638
Houston Texans	3.5%	3.1%	8,658,995
Detroit Lions	3.5%	3.1%	4,174,773
Cincinnati Bengals	3.5%	3.8%	9,739,375
Green Bay Packers	2.5%	2.6%	6,149,757
Dallas Cowboys	2.5%	2.3%	11,264,785
Carolina Panthers	1.5%	1.4%	5,440,280
Washington Commanders	0.5%	0.4%	3,961,797
Tennessee Titans	0.5%	0.2%	496,798
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.5%	0.3%	4,573,912
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.5%	0.8%	4,608,460
Philadelphia Eagles	0.5%	0.5%	6,409,405
New York Jets	0.5%	0.2%	696,095
New York Giants	0.5%	0.6%	7,690,024
New Orleans Saints	0.5%	0.4%	5,673,628
Miami Dolphins	0.5%	0.2%	1,741,452
Las Vegas Raiders	0.5%	0.5%	8,990,721
Los Angeles Chargers	0.5%	0.2%	4,500,372
Indianapolis Colts	0.5%	0.4%	1,263,291
Cleveland Browns	0.5%	0.5%	1,852,664
Atlanta Falcons	0.5%	0.9%	6,733,644
Arizona Cardinals	0.5%	0.2%	635,318

Polymarket's 32 yes prices sum to 101.4%. Shown as quoted, not rescaled to 100.

Most Valuable Player

Top 8 of 49 priced on Kalshi. Polymarket where it prices the same name; its 29 yes prices sum to 102.8%.

Player	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	Kalshi contracts
Josh Allen	27.5%	26.5%	1,530,274
Brock Purdy	25.5%	27.7%	1,664,369
Patrick Mahomes	7.5%	10%	1,296,206
Trevor Lawrence	5.5%	4.2%	1,203,644
Joe Burrow	5.5%	5.2%	1,480,759
Jordan Love	4.5%	6.1%	1,791,502
Drake Maye	4.5%	4.3%	1,637,865
Kenneth Walker	3.5%	not listed	2,003,845

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Top 5 of 40 priced on Kalshi.

Player	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	Kalshi contracts
Carnell Tate	25.5%	356,980
Denzel Boston	15.5%	233,978
Jeremiyah Love	15%	339,344
Germie Bernard	12.5%	213,079
Fernando Mendoza	6.5%	252,236

Defensive Player of the Year

Top 5 of 72 priced on Kalshi.

Player	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	Kalshi contracts
Will Anderson Jr.	43.5%	266,124
Fred Warner	13%	254,308
Aidan Hutchinson	7.5%	180,507
Dallas Turner	6%	201,275
Nik Bonitto	4.5%	88,891

Coach of the Year

Top 5 of 33 priced on Kalshi.

Coach	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	Kalshi contracts
Kyle Shanahan	26.5%	433,608
Todd Monken	15.5%	362,468
Kevin O'Connell	11.5%	170,803
Ben Johnson	9.5%	318,025
Klint Kubiak	5.5%	262,614

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Top 5 of 40 priced on Kalshi.

Player	as at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC	Kalshi contracts
David Bailey	32.5%	139,537
Jacob Rodriguez	19.5%	175,282
Arvell Reese	17.5%	183,922
Sonny Styles	11.5%	148,121
Mansoor Delane	3.5%	116,398

Kalshi's sports contracts are not available in every US state. See the affiliate disclosure.

Season wins, all 32 teams

Kalshi prices each team's regular-season win total as a ladder of "at least N wins" contracts. The line is the highest rung still priced at 50% or more, with the rung above it in small type: a team at 10+ 54% and 11+ 41% is priced to finish around 10-7.

Team	Wins lineas at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC
San Francisco 49ers	13+ 62.5%14+ 49%
Buffalo Bills	13+ 50.5%14+ 27.5%
Kansas City Chiefs	12+ 67.5%13+ 47%
Minnesota Vikings	11+ 66.5%12+ 45.5%
Jacksonville Jaguars	11+ 64.5%12+ 39.5%
Baltimore Ravens	11+ 58.5%12+ 33%
Chicago Bears	11+ 55.5%12+ 33.5%
Denver Broncos	11+ 52.5%12+ 34.5%
New England Patriots	10+ 65.5%11+ 40.5%
Detroit Lions	10+ 64%11+ 44.5%
Cincinnati Bengals	10+ 63.5%11+ 45.5%
Seattle Seahawks	10+ 58.5%11+ 39.5%
Green Bay Packers	10+ 52.5%11+ 34%
Houston Texans	9+ 63%10+ 45.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9+ 61.5%10+ 40.5%
Los Angeles Rams	9+ 59%10+ 39.5%

Team	Wins lineas at 23 October 2026, 06:52 UTC
Carolina Panthers	9+ 55.5%10+ 38%
Cleveland Browns	8+ 69%9+ 44%
Dallas Cowboys	8+ 63.5%9+ 44.5%
Las Vegas Raiders	8+ 52%9+ 31%
Indianapolis Colts	7+ 59%8+ 39.5%
Atlanta Falcons	7+ 57.5%8+ 41.5%
New York Giants	7+ 57.5%8+ 39.5%
New Orleans Saints	7+ 56.5%8+ 38.5%
New York Jets	6+ 63%7+ 38%
Philadelphia Eagles	6+ 62%7+ 42.5%
Washington Commanders	6+ 59.5%7+ 38.5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6+ 58%7+ 36%
Arizona Cardinals	6+ 52.5%7+ 32.5%
Los Angeles Chargers	4+ 60.5%5+ 42.5%
Tennessee Titans	4+ 59.5%5+ 38%
Miami Dolphins	2+ 65%3+ 47.5%

NFL coverage

Analysis from the iPredicta desk on the markets above.

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