US Midterms 2026: Results

Called races, per AP

AP has called 33 of the 35 Senate races listed here, as read on AP's race pages at 05:55 UK time, 9 November. For each race: who AP called it for and when, and each venue's favourite at its final price before that state's polls closed. Still being counted: Alaska, Mississippi.

Across the 67 called Senate and governor races, the markets' favourite at the close of polling won 64 of 67: Kalshi's 61 of 64 and polymarket.com's 63 of 66. How accurate were the prediction markets in the 2026 midterms?

Seats, per AP's results pages updated at 06:18 UK time, 5 November: Senate, Democrats 54 and Republicans 44, with 2 to be called and 51 needed for a majority; House, Democrats 240 and Republicans 147, with 48 to be called and 218 needed.

Calls: AP's race pages, linked from each state. Prices: the last two-sided midpoint on each venue before that state's polls closed, from iPredicta's own 15-minute capture; Polymarket US had no bids or asks in the capture and is not scored. Results are AP's calls, not ours.

House races: how the venues settled

For the 435 House districts with a market on Kalshi or polymarket.com: 413 settled by at least one venue and 22 awaiting settlement, as recorded at 11:13 UK time, 9 November. Each settled district shows which venue settled it, for whom, and when.

A settlement is the venue's own decision under its market's rules, not a race call by us or by AP. Our election-night price capture covered the Senate, governor and control markets, not House districts, so these rows show no market favourite and are not part of the accuracy record above. Polymarket US's district markets are not in this record.