US Midterms
US Midterms 2026
Senate and governor races priced by prediction markets, state by state.
Senate and governor races priced by prediction markets, state by state.
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33 states have a Senate market we can read a price from. Select one to see it. The table below carries the same figures in full.
Select a state.
Every label here describes a market, never a contest. Not every state elects a senator in 2026, and we hold no roster of which do, so an unfilled state means only that Polymarket carries no market we can price. It does not mean there is no race there.
Of the 34 states with a Senate market on Polymarket, 33 have traded enough to show a price. Not every state elects a senator in 2026, and we have no roster to say which, so this is a count of markets rather than of races.
▶ Why some states are missing
1 of the 34 markets sit below our $10,000 lifetime volume floor (Oregon). Below that a price moves on almost no money, so we treat it as unreadable rather than quote it.
Nothing sits marginally either side of that floor. The highest excluded market has traded $6,737 and the lowest shown $12,955, so the cut falls in an empty band rather than through a cluster.
The 16 states with no market at all are not necessarily states with no contest. We can say Polymarket carries no market for them; we cannot say whether they are voting for this office in 2026, because the roster we would check that against is not filled.
21 races, ordered by volume in that window rather than by lifetime totals. A market's whole history says where interest has been; that week says where it was.
Volume and share traded are shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 26 September 2026 | 7 day volume | Share traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine27.3% most of its trading has happened this week | Troy Jackson (D) | 65.5% | $536,693 | 27.3%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Alaska48.3% most of its trading has happened this week | Mary Peltola | 72.5% | $502,841 | 48.3%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Ohio special38.4% most of its trading has happened this week | Sherrod Brown (D) | 57.5% | $281,724 | 38.4%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Michigan22.1% actively traded this week | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 70.5% | $237,859 | 22.1%actively traded this week |
| Kansas69.9% most of its trading has happened this week | Roger Marshall (R) | 70.5% | $218,250 | 69.9%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Iowa34.7% most of its trading has happened this week | Ashley Hinson (R) | 56.5% | $203,790 | 34.7%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Texas11.8% actively traded this week | James Talarico (D) | 61.5% | $178,005 | 11.8%actively traded this week |
| South Carolina26.6% most of its trading has happened this week | Darline Graham Nordone (R) | 86.5% | $89,902 | 26.6%most of its trading has happened this week |
| New Hampshire28.3% most of its trading has happened this week | Chris Pappas (D) | 85.5% | $69,347 | 28.3%most of its trading has happened this week |
| North Carolina34.3% most of its trading has happened this week | Roy Cooper (D) | 94.5% | $63,362 | 34.3%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Mississippi43.6% most of its trading has happened this week | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | 92% | $42,740 | 43.6%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Idaho50.5% most of its trading has happened this week | Jim Risch (R) | 90.1% | $37,600 | 50.5%most of its trading has happened this week |
| Georgia14.4% actively traded this week | Jon Ossoff (D) | 95% | $25,356 | 14.4%actively traded this week |
| Minnesota16.9% actively traded this week | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 91.5% | $18,532 | 16.9%actively traded this week |
| Florida special11.6% actively traded this week | Ashley Moody (R) | 91.5% | $15,358 | 11.6%actively traded this week |
| South Dakota21.5% actively traded this week | Mike Rounds (R) | 93.7% | $8,721 | 21.5%actively traded this week |
| Louisiana7.7% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Julia Letlow (R) | 93.5% | $3,041 | 7.7%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Arkansas13.3% actively traded this week | Tom Cotton (R) | 94.7% | $3,016 | 13.3%actively traded this week |
| Colorado4.9% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | John Hickenlooper (D) | 97.9% | $2,493 | 4.9%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
| Wyoming11.8% actively traded this week | Harriet Hageman (R) | 96.9% | $2,253 | 11.8%actively traded this week |
| Montana1% mostly traded earlier in the cycle | Kurt Alme (R) | 90% | $1,390 | 1%mostly traded earlier in the cycle |
In most of these the price already says why.
Some races price a named candidate, others price a party. That is the market's own framing, not ours: where a leg names a party rather than a person, it usually means no candidate has been settled on yet. We show whichever the market uses.
Lifetime volume is shown on wider screens.
| State | Market leader | Priceas at 26 September 2026 | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey (D) | 97.9% | $48,578 |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | 95.9% | $34,445 |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton (D) | 97.9% | $33,470 |
| Delaware | Democrat | 98.8% | $31,649 |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | 96.7% | $29,927 |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) | 99.3% | $26,571 |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | 97.7% | $26,482 |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján (D) | 96.9% | $25,993 |
| Virginia | Mark Warner (D) | 97.6% | $23,648 |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker (D) | 96.6% | $21,219 |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 98.3% | $15,970 |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | 96.6% | $12,955 |
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