An independent Commission has found Manchester City guilty of all charges relating to serious breaches of the Premier League's financial rules, and the majority of charges relating to its failure to co-operate with the League's investigation, the Premier League announced on 29 September 2026. The case is widely known as the "115 charges" case; the Commission found every charge proven bar one, Charge 4(B), a co-operation charge.
According to the Premier League, the Commission found that between the 2009/10 and 2017/18 seasons City arranged 'sham' contracts with a number of its commercial partners to artificially inflate the club's revenues and reduce its costs. A table in the Commission's published decision shows that of £949.94m in recorded Abu Dhabi sponsorship fees over those nine seasons, £830.69m was paid by Abu Dhabi United Group (ADUG), the club's owner, rather than by the sponsors themselves.
On co-operation, three of the four alleged breaches were upheld, the Premier League said.
No sanction has yet been imposed. Manchester City said it is "innocent of the accusations made by the Premier League" and "will now pursue the appeal avenues open to it, on the basis that the opinion contains clear material errors, of law, principle and fact, and is unsafe." Under the Premier League's timetable, the club has until Friday 2 October to appeal.
If the findings stand, one of the biggest questions in English football remains open: what will Manchester City's punishment be?
There is no established precedent for a case of this scale, and Section W of the Premier League's rules does not prescribe a specific sanction for these breaches. That leaves prediction market traders trying to price an outcome for which there is little historical evidence to anchor their expectations.
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What do we know about Manchester City's 115 charges punishment?
The Commission's findings establish what Manchester City have been found to have done, but not what punishment they will receive. Sanction will be decided at a further hearing before the independent Commission which, under Premier League rules, will remain private and confidential until publication of the outcome is permitted. No date has been made public.
It leaves a wide range of possible outcomes. The Premier League says the Commission has "a broad discretion as to the sanctions it wishes to apply". Its rules allow the Commission to impose an unlimited fine, deduct points, suspend a club from League matches and recommend that the League expels a club, or any combination of these.
The prediction markets reflect that uncertainty, with separate contracts asking about the size of a potential Manchester City points deduction, when the punishment will be announced, whether the findings will be overturned and whether City will be relegated this season.
Polymarket.com offers the widest range of markets on the case, including how many Premier League points City will be deducted, when the punishment will be announced, whether the findings will be overturned and whether City will be relegated in 2026/27. Kalshi does not list a points-deduction market, but prices City's relegation, whether City will be stripped of titles, and the title race itself.
Where the gap between buyers and sellers is wider than three points, the table shows the range rather than a single figure.
| Prediction market | Polymarket.com | Kalshi | Traded so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50+ point deduction | 46.5% | Not listed | $656 (Polymarket.com) |
| Punishment announced by December 4 | 35-42% | Not listed | $3.0k on this date, $13.4k across all dates (Polymarket.com) |
| Any points deduction by June 30, 2027 | 57-79% | Not listed | $300 (Polymarket.com) |
| Findings overturned by June 30, 2027 | 4.5% | Not listed | $398 (Polymarket.com) |
| Relegated in 2026/27 | 29-39% | 31.5% | $7.8k (Polymarket.com); about 101,000 contracts (Kalshi) |
Market snapshot: 08:28 UTC, 1 October 2026. Prices and trading volumes can change as trading continues.
Manchester City points deduction prediction market odds
Polymarket.com's points-deduction market has the 50+ point band as its highest-priced individual outcome, with buyers at 46% and sellers at 47%. Only around $650 has been traded on that outcome, so the price should not be treated as a robust forecast of the eventual punishment. The same market also carries an outcome for City being expelled from the Premier League as a sanction, priced between 3.8% and 20.2%.
A wide gap between buyers and sellers, together with low trading activity, means there is less evidence behind these prices than in a more heavily traded market. Read iPredicta's What Is Liquidity In Prediction Markets guide for further detail.
When could the Manchester City punishment be announced?
There is considerably more trading activity behind the market asking when Manchester City's punishment will be announced: around $13,400 across all its dates on Polymarket.com, the most of any dedicated Manchester City punishment market on that platform.
Each date in this market asks whether the punishment will have been announced by that date, so the dates build on one another: a punishment announced by November 20 has also been announced by December 4. At present November 20 trades between 29% and 38%, December 4 between 35% and 42% and December 18 between 27% and 40%, with November 6 at around 21%, October 23 at around 7.5% and October 9 below 2%. Read together, the market sees roughly a 35-40% chance of the punishment being announced by early December. The ranges overlap and are not fully consistent with one another, since a later date cannot be less likely than an earlier one, which is itself a sign of how thin these books are. Each individual date has only around $900 to $3,300 traded, so these prices are thin.
The prices should be read as implied probabilities rather than definitive predictions. Read iPredicta's What Is Implied Probability In Prediction Markets guide to learn more.
There is another question worth considering: will Manchester City be deducted any Premier League points at all? Polymarket.com gives a 4.5% probability that the findings will be overturned by June 30, 2027.
Separately, Polymarket.com has a market on whether City will be deducted points by June 30, 2027. Buyers are at 57% and sellers at 79%, with only around $300 traded, which is too wide a gap to read as a single figure.
How could Manchester City's punishment affect the Premier League this season?
Manchester City being relegated from the Premier League in 2026/27 is priced at 31.5% on Kalshi, where around 101,000 contracts have been traded, making it by some distance the deepest market on the case. Polymarket.com's equivalent market is much thinner, at around $7,800 traded, with buyers at 29% and sellers at 39%.
City have won all five of their opening Premier League matches this season and averaged just over 82 points across the previous four seasons, so relegation would likely require an enormous points deduction (West Ham, for example, were relegated with 39 points last season). The eventual severity and timing of any punishment is therefore crucial.
The market also demonstrates why the different Manchester City 115 charges contracts are interconnected, but not interchangeable. A trader can believe a large points deduction is plausible without necessarily believing City will be relegated this season, particularly if the appeals process delays the punishment or it is imposed later in the season.
A significant points deduction could also reshape the Premier League title race, particularly if City remain in contention when the punishment is imposed.
Kalshi's title market shows how quickly prices responded to the case. City's price to win the 2026/27 Premier League was 38-39% on Kalshi until early afternoon on 25 September, when the outcome was first reported, and fell to around 23-24% by that evening. It fell again, to around 19%, after the Premier League published the decision on 29 September. City are now priced at around 21.5% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.com.
There could also be significant consequences for the rest of the league. If a points penalty were severe enough to send City towards the bottom of the table, clubs around the relegation places could effectively be moved up a position, potentially keeping another team in the Premier League who would have otherwise finished in the bottom three. The same principle could apply to European qualification, with clubs outside the qualifying places potentially moving up if City's final position changes.
Market snapshot: 08:28 UTC, 1 October 2026. Prices and trading volumes can change as trading continues.
Could Manchester City be stripped of Premier League titles?
The potential consequences also extend beyond the 2026/27 season, both into future campaigns, where points penalties could potentially be applied, and into the past.
The financial breaches occurred between 2009/10 and 2017/18, a period in which City won three Premier League titles, so traders are also considering whether the case could affect the status of past titles.
Stripping titles is not among the sanctions the Premier League's rules list, though the Commission may also impose "such other penalty as it shall think fit". Polymarket.com prices City being stripped of a Premier League title by June 30, 2027 at around 24%. Kalshi prices the same outcome before January 1, 2028 at around 22.5%; the later deadline means the two markets are not asking quite the same question.
Why the Manchester City 115 charges punishment markets remain uncertain
The uncertainty surrounding Manchester City's potential punishment is not surprising. There is no established Premier League precedent for a case of this scale, and Section W of the League's rules does not prescribe a specific sanction for these breaches.
In the 2023/24 season Everton were deducted six points (reduced on appeal from ten) and later a further two points, and Nottingham Forest were deducted four points, all for breaches of the League's profit and sustainability rules. Neither case involved anything approaching the number or nature of charges brought against Manchester City.
While those cases may act as a starting point, there is no clear historical outcome for prediction market traders to use as an anchor. Instead, the different Manchester City 115 charges prediction markets are attempting to price several unresolved variables at once: the severity of the sanction, when it will be imposed, whether City's appeal succeeds and whether any punishment ultimately affects the club's position in the Premier League.
What do prediction markets think Manchester City's punishment will be?
The Manchester City points deduction prediction markets offer no clear consensus on the eventual punishment, which is perhaps unsurprising given the unprecedented nature of the case.
They price a substantial probability of a points deduction, but there is much greater uncertainty over its size, timing and sporting consequences.
The 50+ point outcome trades at around 46.5% on Polymarket.com, where a separate market on City being deducted any points by June 30, 2027 trades between 57% and 79%. City's relegation in 2026/27 is priced at 31.5% on Kalshi and between 29% and 39% on Polymarket.com.
Those prices need to be understood as potentially dependent on one another. For example, a points deduction could be imposed but arrive too late to result in relegation this season.
But the markets appear considerably more confident that some points deduction will eventually occur than they are about how large that deduction will be.
Market snapshot for figures used in this article: 08:28 UTC, 1 October 2026. Prices and trading volumes can change as trading continues.
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Polymarket figures in this article refer to markets on Polymarket.com unless otherwise stated. Polymarket.com and Polymarket US operate separate order books, so prices can differ between the two platforms.
