The 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year prediction markets suggest there is no clear runaway favourite at this early stage of the season, with several players attracting significant support across both the offensive and defensive awards.
In the Offensive Rookie of the Year market, Jeremiyah Love is among the leading candidates on both major prediction markets, although plenty of other players remain in contention.
The Defensive Rookie of the Year market is similarly open, with Rueben Bain Jr. and David Bailey closely matched on Polymarket while Jacob Rodriguez leads on Kalshi. The lack of a dominant contender highlights how difficult rookie awards can be to predict before players establish themselves in the NFL.
The prediction markets offer a different perspective from traditional NFL Rookie of the Year odds, providing a live view of how traders assess the chances of the leading candidates. Here, we take a deeper dive into the available data.
For the latest prices across division winners, Super Bowl LXI and other season-long markets, see our NFL prediction markets page.
Deposit $20, get $50 to trade
Welcome bonus on the world's largest prediction market.
18+ · New users only · Availability and terms vary by region · Trading involves risk of loss · BeGambleAware.org
Who are the favourites for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Jeremiyah Love currently leads both major NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction markets, although the players immediately behind him differ significantly between Kalshi and Polymarket.
The Arizona Cardinals running back is followed by Jadarian Price and Carnell Tate on Kalshi. On Polymarket.com, Fernando Mendoza is the closest challenger, though Price is priced considerably higher on Polymarket.us. The spread of candidates highlights the uncertainty around the award, with no player commanding a dominant share of either market.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction market odds
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love | 25% | 23% |
| Jadarian Price | 16% | 18%* |
| Fernando Mendoza | 10% | 12% |
| Carnell Tate | 11% | 14%* |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 1% | 6% |
| Makai Lemon | 1% | 5% |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 1% | 2% |
Market prices correct as of 15:15, September 15 2026. Prediction-market prices can change as trading activity and new information alter market expectations.
*Prices taken from Polymarket.us. Polymarket.com and Polymarket.us are separate exchanges with separate order books, so prices can differ between the two venues. The Polymarket figures in these tables are taken from Polymarket.com unless otherwise stated.
With the leading contenders priced fairly comparatively, the biggest differences are found further down with Mike Washington Jr and Makai Lemon priced at 1% or lower against figures of 6% and 5% respectively at Polymarket.
A few possible causes for that gap in probability across the markets include a lack of liquidity in the market, different trading opinions across the platforms and one not reacting to developing news as quickly the other - such as an injury update, or suspension.
Compare the latest NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why is Jeremiyah Love the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favourite?
Jeremiyah Love's position at the top of both major prediction markets reflects the opportunity available to the Arizona Cardinals running back. Selected third overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, Love enters the league with significant expectations after winning the Doak Walker Award for the best college football running back and earning unanimous All-American honours at Notre Dame in 2025.
His profile also makes him an obvious candidate for a strong rookie campaign. Running backs can make an immediate impact in the NFL, while Love's draft position suggests Arizona expect him to play a significant role in their offence.
There is already evidence that the Cardinals intend to use him prominently, although his workload alongside Tyler Allgeier could be an important factor in determining how quickly he can build an award-winning rookie season. Arizona used both backs in its opening game, with Love scoring a touchdown on his third career carry.
His standing in the prediction markets therefore reflects a combination of draft pedigree, expected opportunity and proven production at college level, although the gap between him and the chasing rookies remains small enough for the market to change quickly.
How much confidence should we have in the NFL Rookie of the Year prediction markets?
The prediction markets provide a useful snapshot of how traders assess the Rookie of the Year race, but the level of trading activity differs significantly between Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi's Offensive Rookie of the Year market has attracted substantially more trading volume than Polymarket's, giving its prices a much larger pool of activity behind them. That does not necessarily make Kalshi's probabilities more accurate, but it is an important consideration when comparing the two markets.
The Rookie of the Year markets are similarly fluid to the wider NFL MVP prediction markets, where several leading contenders are also separated by relatively small margins.
The two exchanges are currently relatively closely aligned on Jeremiyah Love and Fernando Mendoza, but there is considerably less agreement over the players behind him.
That divergence could reflect differences in the traders using each platform, available liquidity and how participants assess individual players' opportunities. As the season develops and rookies establish their roles, those differences should provide an interesting indication of which candidates are gaining or losing market confidence.
Which other players are being backed for Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Jadarian Price
The Seattle Seahawks running back made an immediate impact in his NFL debut, rushing for 52 yards on 10 carries and adding two catches for six yards. He also ripped off a 13-yard run on Seattle's first play from scrimmage, offering an early indication of the explosiveness that made him a first-round pick.
His early production has strengthened the case that he could play a significant role throughout the season, although his workload will be worth monitoring as the Seahawks balance their backfield.
Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza offers a very different proposition. The Las Vegas Raiders quarterback was the No. 1 overall pick and entered the NFL with an impressive college CV, including the Heisman Trophy and a national championship. However, his path to an award-winning rookie season depends heavily on establishing himself as a regular starter, making his situation different from backs such as Love and Price.
Mendoza was also the Offensive Rookie of the Year pick of former NFL linebacker Paul Posluszny in his NFL predictions for 2026.
Carnell Tate
After being selected fourth overall by the Tennessee Titans, the wide receiver has the draft pedigree to attract significant market support, although receivers can face a steeper path to the award than running backs if their production takes time to build.
The range of candidates above reinforces how open the market remains. Love has the strongest overall position, but Price, Mendoza and Tate all have their own pathways to winning the award, meaning early-season performances and changes in playing time could quickly reshape the market.
Who are the favourites for Defensive Rookie of the Year?
The Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction markets are more divided than the offensive market, with Kalshi and Polymarket currently identifying different players as their respective favourites – albeit with the huge caveat of vastly different levels of liquidity.
Rueben Bain Jr. and David Bailey have traded places at the top of the Polymarket Defensive Rookie of the Year market, highlighting just how closely the market sees the race at this early stage.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction market odds
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Rodriguez | 24% | Not offered |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 11% | 11% |
| David Bailey | 20% | 19% |
| Caleb Downs | 12% | 9% |
| Arvell Reese | 9% | 8% |
| Sonny Styles | 9% | 11% |
| Mansoor Delane | 7% | 8% |
Market prices correct as of 15:15, September 15 2026. Prediction-market prices can change as trading activity and new information alter market expectations.
Compare the latest NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The difference between the markets is particularly notable given how little separates the leading candidates. Neither exchange has a player with anything close to a dominant probability, while the substantial difference in trading volume also means the two prices need to be interpreted in the context of very different levels of market activity.
A price established in a much more heavily traded market may provide a stronger indication of broader trader sentiment, while thinner markets can be more susceptible to individual trades moving the odds.
Which defensive rookies are being backed for Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Jacob Rodriguez
One of the most interesting names on Kalshi, where he currently leads the market despite being less prominent in conventional DROY betting odds at around 8/1. The Miami Dolphins linebacker made an immediate impact in his NFL debut, recording 14 tackles against the Raiders, the second-highest total in the league in Week 1.
That performance provides an early indication of the role available to Rodriguez, although it remains to be seen whether he can maintain that level of output over a full season.
Rueben Bain Jr.
Bain is another youngster who sits towards the top of Polymarket, and has also attracted significant support from traditional bookmakers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers edge rusher was selected 15th overall and has an opportunity to play a prominent role in Todd Bowles' defence.
David Bailey
Bailey is among the highest rated defensive rookies, having been selected second overall by the New York Jets. His pass-rushing ability gives him a clear route to the award, although competition on the Jets' defensive front could influence the number of opportunities he gets to impress.
Caleb Downs
Downs is another player who features prominently across both prediction markets and traditional odds. The Dallas Cowboys safety has the versatility to make an impact in coverage and closer to the line of scrimmage. However, defensive backs have historically found it difficult to win the award, with no safety doing so since Mark Carrier in 1990.
The different profiles of the leading contenders underline why the DROY market remains so open. Pass rushers, linebackers and defensive backs all have a realistic chance to win the award, while early-season performances could quickly change the balance between them.
What do prediction markets tell us about the 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year race?
The NFL Rookie of the Year prediction markets point to two wide-open races, with neither the offensive nor defensive award featuring a runaway favourite. The spread of candidates also highlights how quickly rookie markets can change as players establish their roles and begin producing at NFL level.
The offensive market currently has greater trading activity and is more closely centred around a small group of candidates, while the defensive market is more divided between the two exchanges. The different prices also show why comparing Kalshi and Polymarket can provide more insight than looking at either market in isolation.
For bettors and prediction-market traders, the early weeks of the season will be particularly important. Changes in playing time, injuries and individual performances can quickly alter a player's prospects, while the differing liquidity of the two markets means individual moves should be considered in the broader context of the impact individual trades can have in lower-volume prediction markets.
At this early stage of the season there is not a single obvious winner. Instead, the 2026 rookie awards are likely to remain competitive, with the balance potentially shifting significantly as the season develops.
