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FIFA World Cup 2026 cross-platform prediction market analysis hero composition showing four kit-coloured football silhouettes representing Spain, France, Argentina, and Brazil

FIFA World Cup 2026

Cross-platform prediction market analysis

11 June - 19 July 2026 · Hosted across USA, Canada, Mexico
-- days -- hours -- minutes -- seconds until kickoff

Tournament markets · Polymarket + Kalshi

The six contracts pricing the tournament

Tournament winner, the closest group on the board, the host nation, and three more contracts waiting to list. The markets desk's six to watch through the squad-announcement window...

Market 01 / Tournament Winner

Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

$1.24B traded on Polymarket. Spain and France co-lead at 17 percent. Forty-six contenders priced.

Top Pick Top ·60
▶ What does this mean?
Spain 17%
France 17%
Portugal 11%
England 11%

Market 02 / Group D Winner

Who wins Group D?

Tightest group on the board. USA 37 percent, Turkey 36, before the tournament starts.

Notable Notable ·45
▶ What does this mean?
USA 37%
Turkey 36%
Paraguay 18%
Australia 9.7%

Market 03 / Top Goalscorer

Top goalscorer of the 2026 World Cup

Market opening soon... Polymarket typically lists the Golden Boot market in the week before kickoff.

Market opening soon

Watching for the contract launch

Market 04 / Tournament Novelty

First goal of the tournament

Novelty market opening soon... Polymarket and Kalshi both list these markets for the opening fixture window.

Market opening soon

Watching for the contract launch

Market 05 / Group H Winner

Who wins Group H?

Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay. Market opening soon.

Market opening soon

Watching for the contract launch

Market 06 / Host Nation

Will USA win the 2026 World Cup?

Pochettino's twenty-six lifted by home advantage. 1.6 percent on Polymarket, 1.3 on Kalshi.

Notable Notable ·42
▶ What does this mean?
1.6% Polymarket leading vs Kalshi (1.3%)

From the iPredicta desk

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Browse by group / 12 groups · 48 nations

Find your team

Twelve groups of four. The top two from each group advance, plus the eight best third-placed teams. Click any group for the four-team breakdown.