Group D / Host nation

USA / Paraguay / Australia / Turkey / 12 to 25 June

Four teams, three matchdays, and a host nation the market won't fade

USA enter their home World Cup priced as host-nation favourites... 83% to clear the group on Polymarket, with the freshly listed Group D Winner market reading USA at 37 percent, Turkey close behind at 36, before Pochettino's twenty-six even take the SoFi pitch. Turkey arrive freshest, through the UEFA playoff. Paraguay and Australia are the disruptors the lines keep underestimating.

Group D opens 12 June / SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Browse the four teams →

Abstract editorial hero for Group D of the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Live markets / Group D

Group favourite USA 37%

Highest knockout % USA 83%

Group D Winner volume $64.7K

Browse the group →

From the iPredicta desk

Pochettino's USMNT 26 and the knockout-stage market that won't sit still

Pochettino names his USMNT World Cup 26 with Pulisic, Adams and McKennie. Here's how the squad reshapes the knockout-stage prediction market.

4 min read Read full piece →

More analysis →

Markets / Group D Winner

The group-winner contract, finally listed

Polymarket opened the Group D Winner market with USA narrowly ahead. Tier and score from the iPredicta scoring model.

Polymarket / Multi-outcome

Group D Winner

USA at 37 percent, Turkey almost level at 36, Paraguay and Australia as the disruptors. Settles 25 June after the third matchday.

Notable Notable ·45

▶ What does this mean?

Polymarket / $64.7K total volume

Group D teams

Four teams, four reads

Tap any card to open the dedicated team page.

USA

To win Group D 37%

To reach knockouts 83%

13 Jun · 01:00 UTC vs Paraguay
19 Jun · 19:00 UTC vs Australia
26 Jun · 02:00 UTC vs Turkey

Paraguay

To win Group D 18%

To reach knockouts TBA

13 Jun · 01:00 UTC vs USA
20 Jun · 03:00 UTC vs Turkey
26 Jun · 02:00 UTC vs Australia

View Paraguay →

Australia

To win Group D 9.7%

To reach knockouts TBA

14 Jun · 04:00 UTC vs Turkey
19 Jun · 19:00 UTC vs USA
26 Jun · 02:00 UTC vs Paraguay

View Australia →

Turkey

To win Group D 36%

To reach knockouts TBA

14 Jun · 04:00 UTC vs Australia
20 Jun · 03:00 UTC vs Paraguay
26 Jun · 02:00 UTC vs USA

View Turkey →

Matchdays

Six fixtures, three days

Group D plays out across three matchdays. Per-match Polymarket markets are not yet listed for 2026 fixtures; this section lights up automatically when those markets launch.

13 Jun · 01:00 UTC / MD1 USA vs Paraguay SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Market opening soon
14 Jun · 04:00 UTC / MD1 Australia vs Turkey BC Place, Vancouver Market opening soon
19 Jun · 19:00 UTC / MD2 USA vs Australia Lumen Field, Seattle Market opening soon
20 Jun · 03:00 UTC / MD2 Turkey vs Paraguay Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara Market opening soon
26 Jun · 02:00 UTC / MD3 Turkey vs USA SoFi Stadium, Inglewood Market opening soon
26 Jun · 02:00 UTC / MD3 Paraguay vs Australia Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara Market opening soon