USA / Group D / Host nation

Pochettino's twenty-six and the knockout-stage market that won't sit still

The host nation enters its home World Cup with a settled spine and the market's confidence behind it. The roster confirms a base case that's been quietly priced for months. What remains is path, not advancement.

Why not? Pochettino, on the USA's title chances
Published 27 May 2026 / 4 min read Read the full piece →
Abstract editorial hero for USA in national kit colours
Live markets / USA
To win tournament 1.6%
To win Group D 37%
To reach knockouts 83%
All three markets →

From the iPredicta desk

27 May 2026

Pochettino's USMNT 26 and the knockout-stage market that won't sit still

Pochettino names his USMNT World Cup 26 with Pulisic, Adams and McKennie. Here's how the squad reshapes the knockout-stage prediction market.

4 min read Read full piece →
More analysis →

Markets / USA

Track USA across prediction markets

Three tournament-level contracts pricing USA's path through the 2026 World Cup. Tier and score from the iPredicta scoring model; "What does this mean?" reveals an AI explainer.

Market 01 / Tournament Winner

USA to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Host nation in a 48-team format; the market reads USA as a base-case round-of-16 exit rather than a contender.

Notable Notable ·42
▶ What does this mean?
Polymarket 1.6% $39.2M outcome / $1.24B total Kalshi 1.3% Series page
Betfair Coming at tournament start Pending credentials
Cross-platform / Polymarket leading

Market 02 / Group Winner

USA to win Group D

Polymarket Group D Winner just listed; USA at 37 percent, narrowly ahead of Turkey at 36.

Notable Notable ·45
▶ What does this mean?
Polymarket 37% $64.7K total / four outcomes
Polymarket only

Market 03 / Knockout Qualification

USA to advance to the knockout stage

USA priced highly to clear the group on the umbrella 48-team market; thin per-outcome volume keeps the tier muted.

Quiet Quiet ·20
▶ What does this mean?
Polymarket 83% $2.1K outcome / $59.9K total Kalshi Currently trading Series page
Cross-platform / Polymarket leading

Squad

Pochettino's USMNT

Final World Cup squad announced 26 May 2026.

Goalkeepers

Matt TurnerGoalkeeper
Matt FreeseGoalkeeper
Chris BradyGoalkeeper
Patrick SchulteGoalkeeper

Defenders

Tim ReamCentre-Back
Chris RichardsCentre-Back
Mark McKenzieCentre-Back
Miles RobinsonDefence
Auston TrustyDefence
Alex FreemanDefence
Joseph ScallyRight-Back
Antonee RobinsonLeft-Back

Midfielders

Weston McKennieCentral Midfield
Aidan MorrisCentral Midfield
Tanner TessmannDefensive Midfield
JohnnyDefensive Midfield
Gio ReynaAttacking Midfield
Malik TillmanAttacking Midfield
Brenden AaronsonAttacking Midfield
Cristian RoldanMidfield
Sebastian BerhalterMidfield

Forwards

Christian PulisicRight Winger
Tim WeahRight Winger
Folarin BalogunCentre-Forward
Ricardo PepiCentre-Forward
Patrick AgyemangOffence
Max ArfstenOffence

Form & news

What just moved the markets

Selected USMNT news through the pre-tournament window.

  • 26 May 2026

    USMNT final squad announced today

    Pochettino warned no player is guaranteed a spot including Pulisic and Tyler Adams. AC Milan's failure to finish in top four affects Pulisic and McKennie's tournament preparation.