The iPredicta daily

What moved prediction markets, in one email a day

The biggest price move of the last day and why it happened, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same question, and what to watch next. Free.

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What arrives

Three parts, the same every day, each with its sources.

The big move

The market that moved most in the last 24 hours: what it asks, what happened, what the new price implies, and what to watch next.

Where the venues disagree

The same question priced differently on Kalshi and Polymarket, and what might explain the gap.

Biggest moves

The other largest price moves of the day, each with a link to the market.

A sample

From a recent email, as it arrived.

iPredicta daily, Tuesday 13 OctoberThe big move

Will Australia beat South Africa in the first Durban Test?

24 hours ago57.5%
Now, on Polymarket83.0%
Change+25.5

What it asks. Pays out if Australia are officially declared the winner of the first Test match against South Africa in Durban, under any on-field ruling the competition recognises.

What happened. Matt Renshaw scored 82 in the second innings to follow his first-innings 190, and Australia declared with a lead of 420, after which South Africa closed day four on 102 for 4 (Sky Sports). South Africa require 319 runs to win with 6 wickets remaining going into the final day (Sky Sports).

What the price implies. At 83.0%, up 25.5 points in 24 hours, the market now strongly favours Australia completing victory on day five.

What to watch. Day five play on 13 October 2026 at Durban; South Africa's remaining six wickets must survive or score 319 to prevent an Australian win.

Sources: Sky Sports, 13 Oct; Sky Sports. Over the 24 hours to 08:30 UK, 13 Oct. Polymarket price.

From the daily email of Tuesday 13 October 2026. Australia went on to win the Test by 214 runs.