Polls closed in Israel at 20:00 UTC on 27 October 2026, and within two hours the question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu would leave office by the end of the year had been repriced sharply. The exit polls were released as the booths shut, per CNN's live coverage. By 21:55 UTC, polymarket.com's "Netanyahu out by December 31" market had gone from 43% at 20:05 UTC to 22%. On Kalshi, the equivalent leave-office contract moved from 32% at 20:00 UTC to 23% an hour later.
The fall came as the exit polls landed. Channels 11, 12 and 13 projected Netanyahu's bloc at 51 to 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, down from the 68 of his outgoing coalition and well short of the 61 needed to govern, CNN reported on 27 October. His main rival Gadi Eisenkot (spelled Eizenkot on both venues) was also short. Arab parties were forecast to win 17 to 19 seats, which would be a record, and Netanyahu has ruled out governing with them while Eisenkot has said they do not meet his requirements for forming a government. CNN noted that the vote count usually takes a few days.
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Why Netanyahu leaving office is a question about rules, not seats
The short version is that losing an election does not, by itself, resolve either of these contracts.
On polymarket.com's "Netanyahu out by...?" market, the rule is that it pays Yes if Netanyahu announces resignation or removal, or ceases to be Prime Minister for any period of time, by 31 December 2026. On Kalshi, the leave-office contract requires an official announcement that he will leave, or that he no longer holds the office in any capacity; its rules add that temporary absences and delegation of duties while retaining the office do not count. Neither rulebook counts losing a majority. The caretaker wording itself is in the next-prime-minister markets, where both venues say a caretaker or acting prime minister does not count.
That is the heart of the question. Israel's president consults each party on its choice for prime minister after the count, and CNN notes it can take weeks, or even months, for a winner to emerge. If Netanyahu stays on while coalition talks run, neither market pays Yes on that alone. A reader who looks at the exit-poll numbers and assumes a loss means a resolution is reading the newspaper, not the contract.
polymarket.com's "out by December 31" leg was 19.5% at 14:39 UTC on 28 October, and Kalshi's leave-office leg had a 19% bid and a 24% ask. On these rules, a Yes by 31 December needs a formal announcement that he is leaving, or Netanyahu no longer holding the office, for instance because a government has been sworn in around someone else.
What moved before polls closed, and what we are not going to pretend to explain
Two repricings came before 20:00 UTC. On Kalshi, Netanyahu's leave-office price fell from 44% at 16:00 UTC to 33% at 18:00 UTC, hours before voting ended. On polymarket.com, Eizenkot's price in the next-prime-minister market fell from 61.5% at 19:00 UTC to 50.7% at 19:20 UTC, then recovered to 58.5% at 19:40 UTC. No report read for this piece explains either move. We are not going to offer a cause for them. In a thin pre-close window on a contract this politically charged, a sentence-shaped guess about "what the market was reacting to" is the kind of claim that ages into fiction overnight.
After polls closed, the picture is more legible. polymarket.com's Netanyahu-out contract was essentially flat through the voting day and only broke lower once exit polls landed: 43% at 20:05 UTC, 38% at 20:30 UTC, 30% at 21:00 UTC, 22% at 21:55 UTC, and 19.5% by 14:39 UTC on 28 October. No report read for this piece ties that fall to anything beyond its timing.
The next-prime-minister contracts tell a different, and messier, story
The two next-PM markets are where the venue rules really diverge, and where the overnight price action was most dramatic.
On polymarket.com, Eizenkot's price went from 61.5% at 19:00 UTC to a low of 22.5% at 03:00 UTC on 28 October, settling at 31.75% at 14:39 UTC. Netanyahu's own price in that same market climbed from 24.5% at 19:00 UTC to 51.5% at 03:00 UTC, and sat at 47.5% at 14:39 UTC. On Kalshi, Eizenkot went from 57% at 13:00 UTC to a 16% bid and 17% ask the following afternoon. The striking Kalshi number is "No one", at a 57% bid and 58% ask on 28 October.
The "No one" leg has no equivalent on polymarket.com, and the reason is the rulebook. Kalshi resolves to "No one" immediately if new elections are called before a government forms, or if no government forms by 27 October 2027. polymarket.com waits for whoever is actually sworn in after the 2026 election, and if an early election is called it rolls forward to whoever is sworn in after that one. It resolves "Other" only if no one is sworn in by 31 December 2027. If you want to understand why the two venues can disagree sharply on the same question, our guide to how prediction market odds work is a good starting point; the headline figures are only ever as meaningful as the resolution rule beneath them.
So Kalshi's "No one" leg covers two cases at once: a second election called before a government forms, which resolves it straight away, and no government by 27 October 2027. polymarket.com has no leg for either; on its board a second election moves the question on to whoever is sworn in afterwards. Comparing the two boards leg-for-leg without reading the rules is how a reader convinces themselves the markets disagree when they are, in a meaningful sense, asking different questions. Our explainer on market resolution walks through why this matters more than almost anything else about a contract.
The editorial read
The polymarket.com Netanyahu-out ladder's earlier dates, from March to July 2026, passed without Netanyahu leaving office; its live legs run to June 2027. The most important thing the overnight price action tells you is not whether Netanyahu is finished politically. It is that the venues are correctly separating two questions. Did his bloc lose its majority? The seat projections, if they hold, say yes. Will he leave office by 31 December in a way that satisfies the contract rules? Both venues price that below one in four. iPredicta tracks both markets side by side so readers can see where the rules, not the news, are doing the pricing.
Frequently asked questions
What has to happen for Netanyahu to leave office under these market rules?
On polymarket.com, the contract pays Yes if Netanyahu announces resignation or removal, or ceases to be Prime Minister for any period, by 31 December 2026. On Kalshi, it needs an official announcement he will leave, or him no longer holding the office in any capacity. Neither counts losing a majority, and Kalshi adds that delegating duties while keeping the office does not count, so Netanyahu staying on while coalition talks run does not resolve either market by itself.
Why does Kalshi's "No one" leg price so differently from polymarket.com's board?
Because the two rulebooks treat an early election differently. Kalshi resolves to "No one" the moment fresh elections are called before a government forms. On polymarket.com, an early election rolls the market forward to whoever is sworn in after it and only resolves "Other" if no one is sworn in by 31 December 2027. The venues are not disagreeing so much as pricing adjacent questions.
