Correction, 23 September 2026. Two price claims had gone stale and one was wrong about the gap between the top two.
Read 23 September 2026 as midpoints of best bid and best ask, the Rams are 12.5% on Kalshi and on polymarket.com, not the "around one chance in six" (16.7%) quoted when this was written. The Buffalo Bills are 11.5% on both venues, so they do reach double figures and sit within a point of the Rams; the piece called them high single digits and the Rams clear favourites. Both are corrected, in the body and in the FAQ that repeated the claim.
Correction, 29 September 2026. The lead has changed hands, and a further claim was wrong when written.
Read 29 September 2026 as midpoints of best bid and best ask, the Buffalo Bills lead both venues, at 12.5% on Kalshi and 13.5% on polymarket.com, with the Los Angeles Rams second on both at 11.5%. This piece was written with the Rams ahead and has been updated throughout, including the section explaining why the leading team is favourite. Separately, the claim that the markets placed the Bills at "roughly half the Rams' price" was wrong when written: the two were 11.5% and 12.5% at that time. It has been removed rather than restated.
Update, 10 October 2026. The lead has changed hands again.
Read 10 October 2026 as midpoints of best bid and best ask, the Los Angeles Rams lead both venues, at 11.5% on Kalshi and 12.5% on polymarket.com, with the Buffalo Bills a point behind on each, at 10.5% and 11.5%. The Bills led when this piece was last updated on 29 September, and the Rams before that. A lead that has changed hands twice in a month is not one we can write the piece around, so it no longer names a single favourite: the table below carries the current order and the time it was read.
The 2026 NFL season is underway, but who do the prediction markets expect to win Super Bowl LXI?
The top of both Kalshi and polymarket.com is a close race between the Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills, with the San Francisco 49ers, the Kansas City Chiefs and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks among the leading challengers.
Here, we compare the latest Super Bowl prediction market odds and probabilities to see which teams are being backed to lift the Lombardi Trophy in February 2027, and analyse how much of a gap there is between the favourites and the chasing pack.
Super Bowl LXI will take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on February 14, 2027, with 32 teams now competing for a place in the NFL's biggest game of the season.
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Who are the favourites to win Super Bowl 61?
The Los Angeles Rams and the Buffalo Bills are a point apart at the top of both NFL prediction markets, and the lead between them has changed hands twice since September. Read on 10 October 2026, the Rams were narrowly ahead on both, at 11.5% on Kalshi and 12.5% on polymarket.com, around one chance in eight of winning Super Bowl LXI.
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are close behind on both venues, with the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens a few points further back. Below the top two, the market is describing a wide-open race.
Super Bowl favourites
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 1 November 2026 at 11:16 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 104.2% at that reading, on $70,782,793 traded over its life. The table shows the 12 shortest-priced of 32 outcomes listed; the remaining probability is spread across the others. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 26 October 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 15% | 14% | 0 |
| Buffalo Bills | 12% | 12% | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10% | 11% | 0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8% | 8% | +1 |
| Chicago Bears | 8% | 7% | +1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7% | 7% | 0 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6% | 7% | −1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6% | 5% | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6% | 5% | +1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5% | 5% | 0 |
| Denver Broncos | 5% | 4% | 0 |
| Detroit Lions | 4% | 4% | 0 |
Whichever team leads on a given day, its position at the top of both markets does not mean the market views it as a dominant favourite.
A price of around one in eight is the strongest on the board, but when looking at the bigger picture it also means the market gives the leading team a better than seven-in-eight chance of not winning Super Bowl LXI.
View the latest Super Bowl LXI prediction markets on Polymarket or check the latest Super Bowl winner market on Kalshi for the current prices.
Who is the favourite to win Super Bowl 61?
Nobody by much. The Rams led both boards when this piece was first written, the Bills took over by 29 September, and the Rams were back in front by a point on both venues on 10 October. When the order at the top flips with a week's results, the honest reading is two co-favourites rather than one, and the two venues agreeing on the order at any moment says less than it would about a wider lead.
What the prices do not describe is a dominant team. No team is priced above roughly one chance in eight. A favourite the market gives a better than six-in-seven chance of not winning is a favourite by position rather than by weight, in a field where the leading teams are within a few points of each other. What moves those prices between now and February is for a reader to judge; what the boards currently say is what we can stand behind.
Can the Seahawks defend their Super Bowl title?
The Seattle Seahawks enter the 2026 season as defending Super Bowl champions, but the prediction markets are not convinced they can become the first team in more than 20 years to defend their title.
The 2004-05 New England Patriots were the last side to claim back-to-back titles, and both Kalshi and Polymarket have Seattle in the mid single digits, a few points behind the leaders and close to the Baltimore Ravens among the leading contenders.
Former NFL linebacker Paul Posluszny is more bullish on the Seahawks' chances, backing them to become the first team in more than 20 years to successfully defend their title in his full NFL predictions for 2026.
"The way that they performed was just truly impressive because they have such great balance, if you look at the offensive and defensive sides of the ball," Posluszny told iPredicta in an exclusive interview. "So if I had to make a pick today, it would be a repeat for them."
The majority of their successful squad have remained with the franchise, although Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III has left for the Kansas City Chiefs and pass rusher Boye Mafe for the Cincinnati Bengals.
While the Seahawks might not be weaker than in their Super Bowl-winning year, it may simply be a case of the Rams surpassing them by adding more star power to their squad.
Can the Bills finally win the Super Bowl?
The Bills are a point behind the Los Angeles Rams on both venues, at 10.5% on Kalshi and 11.5% on polymarket.com when read on 10 October, and they led both boards as recently as 29 September.
Led by Josh Allen, who Paul Posluszny also picked as his NFL MVP for 2026, Buffalo will be hoping to finally turn their regular-season success into a Super Bowl appearance, having fallen short in the playoffs in recent seasons, most recently an overtime defeat to Denver in last season's Divisional round.
The Bills have plenty of experience competing at the top of the AFC. With Buffalo also facing strong competition from the Ravens, Chiefs and other AFC contenders, the market appears to see Allen as a stronger individual contender than his team is a collective one.
Which other teams could win Super Bowl 61?
Moving further down the board, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers sit closest behind the top two on both venues, with the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens next. The Denver Broncos, who reached the AFC Championship Game last season, have drifted into the low single digits.
Most of the rest of the league, including the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals, is priced in the low single digits.
What do prediction markets tell us about Super Bowl 61?
The biggest takeaway from the Super Bowl LXI prediction markets is just how difficult it is to identify a clear favourite at all.
Whichever team leads on the day, a price of around one in eight still means the prediction markets give it a better than seven-in-eight chance of not winning the Super Bowl.
The fact that no team is priced above about one in eight also highlights the uncertainty surrounding the championship race, with an unpredictable season in store.
That uncertainty could make the Super Bowl market particularly interesting to follow throughout the season, with key injuries, unexpected results and underlying performance patterns all likely to shake up the prediction markets by the time the playoffs arrive.
For now, though, the market's message is relatively clear: as far as Super Bowl 61 predictions go, the Rams and the Bills are the teams to beat, but neither is anywhere near certain.
For the latest NFL prediction market prices and Super Bowl LXI probabilities, visit iPredicta's NFL prediction markets page.
