The 2026 NFL season is underway, but who do the prediction markets expect to win Super Bowl LXI?
The Los Angeles Rams are the clear early favorites on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with the Buffalo Bills, the defending champion Seattle Seahawks and the Baltimore Ravens among the leading challengers.
Here, we compare the latest Super Bowl prediction market odds and probabilities to see which teams are being backed to lift the Lombardi Trophy in February 2027, and analyze how much of a gap there is between the favorites and the chasing pack.
Super Bowl LXI will take place at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on February 14, 2027, with 32 teams now competing for a place in the NFL's biggest game of the season.
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Who are the favorites to win Super Bowl 61?
The Los Angeles Rams are the clear favorites on both NFL prediction markets, priced at around one chance in six of winning Super Bowl LXI. No other team reaches double figures on either platform.
The Buffalo Bills are the nearest challengers, in the high single digits on both venues, with the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens a couple of points further back and level with each other, and the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos close behind them. Behind the Rams, the market is describing a wide-open race.
Super Bowl favorites
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 10 September 2026 at 11:37 UTC, refreshed daily. The table shows the 12 shortest-priced of 32 outcomes listed; the remaining probability is spread across the others. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 17% | 17% |
| Buffalo Bills | 8% | 9% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7% | 7% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7% | 7% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6% | 6% |
| Denver Broncos | 6% | 5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5% | 5% |
| Houston Texans | 5% | 5% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5% | 4% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5% | 4% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5% | 4% |
| New England Patriots | 5% | 4% |
While the Rams' position at the top of both markets is notable, the gap between LA and the rest of the field does not necessarily mean the market views them as a dominant favorite.
A price of around one in six is far stronger than any rival team, but when looking at the bigger picture it also means the market gives the Rams a better than five-in-six chance of not winning Super Bowl LXI.
View the latest Super Bowl LXI prediction markets on Polymarket or check the latest Super Bowl winner market on Kalshi for the current prices.
Why are the Rams favorites to win Super Bowl 61?
They have had a busy offseason, recruiting two-time Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett to a defense that will also feature defensive tackle Aaron Donald, widely regarded as one of the greatest defensive players of all time, who returns to the team after first announcing his retirement in March 2024.
They also have quarterback Matthew Stafford, who was named NFL MVP last season after throwing for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns, giving them elite talent on both sides of the ball.
They finished 12-5 last season before losing narrowly to the eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, 31-27, in the NFC Championship Game, and the prediction markets fancy them to go all the way this time, with the prospect of playing Super Bowl LXI at their home field, SoFi Stadium, adding another layer to the story.
Can the Seahawks defend their Super Bowl title?
The Seattle Seahawks enter the 2026 season as defending Super Bowl champions, but the prediction markets are not convinced they can become the first team in more than 20 years to defend their title.
The 2004-05 New England Patriots were the last side to claim back-to-back titles, and both Kalshi and Polymarket have Seattle in the mid single digits, a couple of points behind the Buffalo Bills and level with the Baltimore Ravens among the leading contenders.
Former NFL linebacker Paul Posluszny is more bullish on the Seahawks' chances, backing them to become the first team in more than 20 years to successfully defend their title in his full NFL predictions for 2026.
"The way that they performed was just truly impressive because they have such great balance, if you look at the offensive and defensive sides of the ball," Posluszny told iPredicta in an exclusive interview. "So if I had to make a pick today, it would be a repeat for them."
The majority of their successful squad have remained with the franchise, although Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III has left for the Kansas City Chiefs and pass rusher Boye Mafe for the Cincinnati Bengals.
While the Seahawks might not be weaker than in their Super Bowl-winning year, it may simply be a case of the Rams surpassing them by adding more star power to their squad.
Can the Bills finally win the Super Bowl?
The Buffalo Bills are the nearest challengers to the Rams in the Super Bowl LXI prediction markets, in the high single digits on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Led by Josh Allen, who Paul Posluszny also picked as his NFL MVP for 2026, Buffalo will be hoping to finally turn their regular-season success into a Super Bowl appearance, having fallen short in the playoffs in recent seasons, most recently an overtime defeat to Denver in last season's Divisional round.
The Bills have plenty of experience competing at the top of the AFC, but the NFL prediction markets still place them roughly half the Rams' price. With Buffalo also facing strong competition from the Ravens, Chiefs and other AFC contenders, the market appears to see Allen as a stronger individual contender than his team is a collective one.
Which other teams could win Super Bowl 61?
Moving further down the board, the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs sit towards the head of the Super Bowl LXI prediction markets, while the Denver Broncos, who reached the AFC Championship Game last season, are priced just behind them.
The Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals make up the next group, each in the low-to-mid single digits and separated from one another by less than a point on either venue.
What do prediction markets tell us about Super Bowl 61?
The biggest takeaway from the Super Bowl LXI prediction markets is just how difficult it is to identify a clear challenger to the Rams.
While Los Angeles may lead the market, a price of around one in six still means the prediction markets give the Rams a better than five-in-six chance of not winning the Super Bowl.
The fact that no other team is above 10% also highlights the uncertainty surrounding the championship race, with an unpredictable season in store.
That uncertainty could make the Super Bowl market particularly interesting to follow throughout the season, with key injuries, unexpected results and underlying performance patterns all likely to shake up the prediction markets by the time the playoffs arrive.
For now, though, the market's message is relatively clear: as far as Super Bowl 61 predictions go, the Rams are the team to beat, but far from a banker bet.
For the latest NFL prediction market prices and Super Bowl LXI probabilities, visit iPredicta's NFL prediction markets page.
