It's all eyes on Philadelphia this weekend, with UFC 330 taking place on Saturday, August 15 at the Xfinity Mobile Arena.
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry for the welterweight title is the headline fight, with Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson for the strawweight title the co-main event.
With plenty of other interesting fights on the card, here's what the UFC 330 prediction markets expect to happen.
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Islam Makhachev expected to retain his welterweight title
In the main event of the night, Russian fighter Islam Makhachev is the overwhelming favourite to defeat Irish challenger Ian Machado Garry.
In Polymarket's UFC prediction markets, welterweight champion Makhachev is given a 75.5% probability of success, with Garry at 24.5%, as of 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
Kalshi's UFC prediction markets price it up very similarly, with Makhachev last traded at 76% and Garry at 25% at 10:55 UTC on 14 August. Kalshi runs each fighter as its own separately traded contract, so the two legs are quoted independently and do not sum to 100.
The market view on Makhachev reflects how prediction markets work, with his status as one of the most dominant fighters in the UFC, and imposing record of 28 wins and just one defeat all key factors.
On paper, Makhachev's elite grappling could prove decisive, with Garry facing the challenge of keeping the champion at distance and avoiding being dragged into his strongest area.
Garry has his own impressive form line, with 17 wins and just a single defeat, but the Polymarket Makhachev v Garry prediction markets still see the Russian as having a roughly three in four chance of winning.
With the winner market so heavily one-sided, the more interesting question may be how Makhachev wins, with Polymarket also offering markets on method and timing of victory and whether the fight goes the distance. We broke down that ladder of connected contracts in our companion piece on why Islam Makhachev is a heavy favourite over Ian Machado Garry.
Mackenzie Dern to defeat Gillian Robertson
In the co-main event, prediction markets expect a similar outcome, with the champion favoured to defeat the challenger.
Women's strawweight champion Mackenzie Dern is the strong favourite with a 64.5% probability of defending the belt against challenger Gillian Robertson, who is a 35.5% shot in Polymarket's Dern v Robertson prediction market, as of 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
It's almost identical in Kalshi's Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson prediction market, with the champ last traded at 65% and the latter at 36% at 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
Both Dern and Robertson are renowned for their submission skills, with Robertson holding the UFC women's record for submission wins and Dern one of the division's most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists.
Given that background, it is notable that traders are giving Dern a clear edge despite Robertson's ability on the ground.
Dern is making a first defence of her strawweight title, while Robertson is competing in her first UFC title fight, so there is still an element of the unknown for both.
Despite that, the near-identical pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket implies the champion has roughly a two-in-three chance of retaining the belt.
Two of the closest fights on the UFC 330 card
With the two main events having clear favourites, we have to look further down the card to find the genuinely even contests in the UFC 330 prediction markets.
The middleweight bout between Vicente Luque and Tresean Gore on the prelims is the closest fight on the card. Polymarket's Luque v Gore prediction market splits it 50.5% to Gore and 49.5% to Luque as of 10:55 UTC on 14 August. A single point is as near to a true coin flip as this card offers, and it means traders are declining to call the fight at all.
Kalshi's Vicente Luque v Tresean Gore prediction market reads the same way, with Gore last traded at 52% and Luque at 50% at 10:55 UTC on 14 August, the two legs quoted independently.
The welterweight bout between Neil Magny and Ramiz Brahimaj on the Early Prelims is still close, but it is no longer the tightest on the card. Polymarket's Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj prediction market has Brahimaj at 55.5% and Magny at 44.5% as of 10:55 UTC on 14 August. Eleven points is a clear lean towards Brahimaj rather than a market that cannot separate them.
Kalshi's Magny v Brahimaj prediction market agrees, with Brahimaj last traded at 57% and Magny at 44% at 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
Jeremiah Wells among the biggest outsiders on the UFC 330 card
Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai is one of the first fights on the UFC 330 card, and it looks like it might be a one-sided battle.
Kalshi's Wells vs Orolbai prediction market gives the latter a huge 89% implied probability of success against his welterweight opponent, who was last traded at 13% at 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
It's a bleaker story still for the American in Polymarket's Jeremiah Wells v Myktybek Orolbai prediction market, where he is given just a 10.5% chance against the 89.5%-favoured Kyrgyz fighter as of 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
It's not great news for Edson Barboza either. In Kalshi's Barboza vs Ribovics prediction market, the Brazilian was last traded at just 15% against Argentina's Esteban Ribovics (86%) at 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
Polymarket's Edson Barboza v Esteban Ribovics prediction market is similarly viewed, with Ribovics at 83.5% and Barboza at 16.5% as of 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
In the next fight, there's another significant underdog in a middleweight bout.
Kalshi's Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus prediction market had the former last traded at a strong 86% and his opponent at just 15% at 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
Polymarket's Abdul-Malik vs Stoltzfus prediction market is similarly bullish with Abdul-Malik at 84.5%, compared with 15.5% for Stoltzfus, as of 10:55 UTC on 14 August.
