Overtime, Postponements and Voids: How Sports Prediction Markets Settle

Suppose a Monday night NFL game is pushed back by a storm and kicks off 46 hours later than scheduled. Does a winner market on that game still settle on the result, or on something else?

Sports markets price the outcome of a game, but games do not always end cleanly. They go to overtime. They end tied. They are postponed, suspended or cancelled. Each venue writes its own rules for these cases, and the rules differ enough that the same disrupted game can settle differently depending on where the contract was held. This guide quotes the rules text that each venue shows on its own market for the same game, Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings on 9 November 2026: Kalshi's KXNFLGAME market and the full contract terms Kalshi publishes for it, polymarket.com's game market and Polymarket US's game market, all read on 9 November 2026. Facts checked on 9 November 2026.

The short version

• Overtime. Counts on all three winner markets. Kalshi settles on the team that wins the game; polymarket.com and Polymarket US both say "Overtime is included if played."
• A tie. Each side is paid at half on all three.
• A postponement. Kalshi waits 48 hours from the original start, then resolves to a fair price. polymarket.com keeps the market open until the game is completed. Polymarket US waits two days, then settles to the last fair market price.
• A game halted after kick-off. Kalshi's contract terms turn on 55 minutes of play. Polymarket US's two-day rule covers a suspended game.
• A game cancelled with no make-up. polymarket.com resolves 50-50.

The sections below quote each rule in full.

Overtime: part of the final result

On Kalshi, the rules text for each KXNFLGAME market says the contract refers to "the team who wins the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026". Overtime is how an NFL game breaks a tied regulation score, so the team that wins in overtime is the team that wins the game, and the market settles on them. The text does not set out a separate regulation-only question, and Kalshi's full contract terms for the series say so directly: "Unless otherwise specified, all overtime periods are included in determining the winner."

polymarket.com's winner market says it in so many words: "Overtime is included if played." Its market for the same game lists many other questions alongside the winner, including spreads, totals and markets on each half and quarter, and each one states its own scope. A first-half or quarter market says: "Only points scored during that period count; overtime is not included." The second-half winner market is the exception: "Points scored in the second half and in any overtime count toward this market." Player and team statistics markets say "Overtime is included if played."

Polymarket US's winner market uses the same sentence: "Overtime is included if played."

Ties: 50 cents a side on all three

Ties in the NFL are rare but real: regulation ends level, overtime ends level, and the game goes into the books as a tie.

Kalshi: "If the game ends in a tie, the market will resolve to $0.50 for each team." If you held Yes on Minnesota and the game finished level after overtime, each share would pay 50 cents, and so would each Yes share on Buffalo.

polymarket.com: "If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50."

Polymarket US: "If the game ends in a tie, the market will settle to $0.50."

So the three venues agree on a tied NFL game: each side of the winner market is paid at half. Other venues write their own tie rules, so it is worth reading the market's own text on any venue before assuming the same one.

Our guide to how prediction market resolution actually works goes deeper on the mechanics of settlement, including how a binary contract represents a drawn result.

Postponements: three different clocks

Storms, security incidents and stadium problems can all push a game back. The question is how long each market waits.

Kalshi: "If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours from its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price."

The 48 hours run from the originally scheduled start, not from any revised one. A Sunday 1pm ET game moved to Monday at noon ET is inside the window and settles on the result. The same game moved to Wednesday morning is outside it and resolves to "a fair price" instead of the eventual result. Kalshi's full contract terms for the series spell out what that means: if the game is not started in time, "the market will resolve based on the last fair market price as determined by Kalshi."

polymarket.com: "If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed." There is no time limit in that sentence. A postponed game keeps the market open until it is played.

Polymarket US: "If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price."

Taking the storm example from the top of this guide, a kick-off 46 hours late is inside Kalshi's 48 hours and inside Polymarket US's two days, so both settle on the result, and polymarket.com waits for the game too. Move the kick-off to 50 hours late and the three part company: Kalshi resolves to a fair price, Polymarket US settles to the last fair market price, and polymarket.com stays open for the result.

Suspended and cancelled games

A game that is postponed is one case. A game that starts, stops and is never finished is another, and a game that is cancelled with no replacement is a third.

polymarket.com names the cancelled case directly: "If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50." That sentence appears on its winner, spread, total and period markets for the game.

Polymarket US's two-day rule covers a game that is "delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled" beyond two days of its original time: such a game settles "to the last fair market price".

Kalshi's full contract terms for the series cover a game halted after kick-off, and the dividing line is 55 minutes of play. Before it, the terms say all markets on a game "suspended or abandoned after kickoff" and not scheduled to resume within 48 hours "will resolve to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange in its sole discretion", apart from markets on a period that has already finished. After it, or if the league declares the game complete, "all markets shall settle based on what has occurred as of that point".

What the contract actually pays on

A winner contract is easy to read as a view on which team is better, but its rules describe something narrower: a payout on a defined event. Kalshi's wording ties the contract to "the team who wins the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026", a particular game on a particular date. polymarket.com's wording begins "In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15PM ET". Polymarket US's market "will settle to the winner of the Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings professional football game scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 8:15PM ET". Everything else in the rules handles the cases where that game does not produce a clean winner on the day.

For a wider look at how event contracts differ from sports bets on the same game, our comparison of prediction markets and sports betting walks through the structural differences.

Read the rules on the market itself

The rules quoted above are what the three venues showed for the Bills vs Vikings game when we read them on 9 November 2026. Venues update their wording, and a rule for one game can differ from the rule for a playoff game or for next season. The reliable habit is to read the resolution text on the specific market before trading it, not a general guide to the venue.

That matters most when the same game is held on more than one venue. A Bills position on Kalshi and a Bills position on polymarket.com are not the same instrument: they settle under different texts, and a game delayed by more than two days can settle at a fair price on one and stay open for the result on the other.

iPredicta is a UK-based discovery platform for prediction markets. We track what is listed, where, and how deep the order books are, and for guides like this one we read each venue's rules text directly and quote it as written.

Frequently asked questions

Does overtime count on NFL game markets?

On the winner markets, yes, on all three venues read on 9 November 2026. polymarket.com and Polymarket US both say "Overtime is included if played." Kalshi's KXNFLGAME market refers to "the team who wins" the game, and overtime is part of how an NFL game is won. polymarket.com's first-half and quarter markets are different: "Only points scored during that period count; overtime is not included." Its second-half winner market counts "Points scored in the second half and in any overtime".

What happens if an NFL game ends in a tie?

Each side of the winner market is paid at half on all three venues. Kalshi: "If the game ends in a tie, the market will resolve to $0.50 for each team." polymarket.com: "If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50." Polymarket US: "If the game ends in a tie, the market will settle to $0.50." These are the rules each venue showed on its Bills vs Vikings market on 9 November 2026. Other sports venues can treat a tie differently, so read the market's own text.

What happens if an NFL game is postponed?

It depends on the venue. On Kalshi, a game that begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start stays open and settles on the official final result; one that does not start within 48 hours resolves "to a fair price". On polymarket.com, "If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed." On Polymarket US, a game "delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled" to a time not within two days of the original "will settle to the last fair market price".

What happens if an NFL game is cancelled?

On polymarket.com: "If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50." On Polymarket US, a game not played within two days of its original time settles "to the last fair market price". On Kalshi, a game that does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time resolves "to a fair price", which Kalshi's contract terms describe as "the last fair market price as determined by Kalshi". A game halted after kick-off follows Kalshi's 55-minute rule set out above.

Do Kalshi, polymarket.com and Polymarket US treat disrupted games the same way?

On ties they agree: half each. On postponements they do not. Kalshi waits 48 hours from the original start and then resolves to a fair price; Polymarket US waits two days and then settles to the last fair market price; polymarket.com keeps the market open until the game is completed, and resolves 50-50 if it is cancelled with no make-up game. A position held on more than one venue can therefore settle differently on each if a game is badly delayed. Read the rules on the specific market before trading.