PREDICTION markets processed a record $50.6 billion of trading volume in July 2026, according to data compiled by The Block, with Kalshi accounting for roughly three-quarters of all activity.
That headline number is taker notional volume: the total value of contracts bought and sold, not money deposited. The same contract can change hands many times before a market settles, so $50.6 billion is a measure of turnover and order book depth rather than $50.6 billion of new money entering the sector.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction markets accounted for huge volumes, as did the transfer saga around LeBron James' next team predictions.
But away from sport, several other markets experienced significant trading activity that revealed how prediction markets work, absorb new information and reassess probabilities at rapid speed.
Here are three markets that stood out from July.
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APPLE VS NVIDIA: THE RACE TO BECOME THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY
One of the more dramatic economy prediction markets in July centred on which business would end the month as the world's most valuable company.
By the time it settled, almost $7.78 million had been traded on the Largest Company At End Of July market, with two tech giants, Apple and NVIDIA, in a battle for supremacy.
At the start of the month, NVIDIA, who specialise in graphics cards and artificial intelligence hardware, was the market favourite to end the month on top.
However, consumer electronics giant Apple spent much of July closing the gap, reclaiming the top spot on 27 July, with Apple's measured approach to AI investment regarded as a positive step. The two companies swapped positions repeatedly through the month.
Apple also briefly touched a $5 trillion market capitalisation intraday on 28 July, becoming only the second company to reach the milestone.
However, there was to be a late twist in the tale.
Market sentiment shifted sharply after Apple's quarterly results on 31 July. Although the company reported strong earnings, weaker-than-expected guidance and a warning from Tim Cook, Apple's CEO at the time, of significant supply-chain issues sent its shares down around 10%, dropping close to $500 billion in market value, and pushing Apple back down into second place behind NVIDIA.
The largest company in the world prediction market was ultimately decided more by Apple's sharp post-earnings decline than any growth or rally in NVIDIA, illustrating just how quickly a single earnings report can reshape expectations.
HOW HIGH COULD BITCOIN CLIMB IN JULY?
Almost $25 million was traded on the Crypto prediction market asking what price Bitcoin would reach during July, a market that settled at the end of the month.
Unlike traditional forecasts published periodically, prediction markets evolve minute by minute as traders respond to new information. Throughout July, traders were able to reassess Bitcoin's potential in real time as inflation data, central bank expectations and regulatory developments were announced.
Rather than relying on a single analyst's view, the market reflected the collective judgement of thousands of traders, with probabilities adjusting whenever wider confidence and viewpoints changed.
Bitcoin prediction markets aren't driven by a single expert attempting to forecast the future. Instead, they aggregate thousands of individual opinions into a continuously updating consensus, offering a real-time snapshot of how traders collectively assess future outcomes.
PREDICTION MARKETS ARE ALREADY PRICING THE US MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Although Americans won't vote until November, US election prediction market traders have already begun positioning themselves for one of the biggest political events of the next two years.
On Polymarket alone, more than $9 million has already been traded on the overall balance of power in Congress, while individual Senate and House races are attracting millions more as investors, political observers and campaign strategists attempt to price the outcome months before election day.
At the time of writing, current US Midterm Elections prediction markets consensus suggests:
- Democrats have an 86% implied probability of winning control of the House, with around $9 million traded on the market.
- Republicans remain slight favourites to retain the Senate, with an implied probability of 54.5% and $3.8 million in trading volume.
There are also a number of Donald Trump prediction markets that could become increasingly relevant as the midterms approach. Both Kalshi and Polymarket track his approval rating, allowing traders to continually reassess his political popularity, with other markets covering whether he could be impeached or leave office before the end of 2026.
Polymarket's market on Trump leaving office before 2027 has already seen over $10 million in trading volume, while a Will Trump be impeached by the end of 2026 market has traded almost $1 million.
For the midterms, Trump's approval rating is arguably the most important market to watch. A sustained rise or fall in his popularity could alter expectations for Republican candidates and the balance of power in Congress, meaning developments around the president are likely to feed into the wider House and Senate prediction markets.
When it comes to elections, prediction markets don't replace opinion polls. Instead, they aggregate traders' expectations across a range of issues.
Markets continually incorporate polling, fundraising, candidate selections, retirements, economic conditions and major political developments into a single, constantly updating probability.
Rather than offering a snapshot of public opinion, they provide a real-time assessment of how likely each outcome is based on all available information.
