The 2026 NFL season is underway, but which teams do the prediction markets expect to win their divisions?
With eight titles up for grabs across the AFC and NFC, the NFL division winner prediction markets offer an early indication of which teams are expected to finish top of their respective conferences.
Here, we compare the latest NFL division winner probabilities across Kalshi and Polymarket, looking at the favourites in each division and where the two prediction markets disagree.
From the defending AFC and NFC division champions to teams hoping to make a breakthrough in 2026, we assess the market’s expectations for every NFL division and identify the closest races to watch throughout the season.
One thing to know before reading the tables below: the division money sits on Kalshi. Each of its eight division markets carries four contracts with a one-point spread and hundreds of thousands of contracts traded, while Polymarket’s eight division markets had taken between $20,000 and $34,000 each over their whole life on 13 September, with daily turnover between nothing and about $1,000. Both columns are shown, with the sum of the book on each as-at line, but where the two disagree the Kalshi figure is the one more people have paid for.
For the latest NFL prediction market prices across division winners, Super Bowl LXI and other season-long markets, see our NFL prediction markets page.
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AFC division winner predictions
Who will win the AFC East?
The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East prediction markets in 2026, with Kalshi and Polymarket both making them clear favourites ahead of the New England Patriots.
Despite the Patriots winning the division in 2025 and going all the way to Super Bowl LX, the Bills are backed to reclaim a title they won for five consecutive seasons before New England’s recent breakthrough.
There is some disagreement between the two markets over the size of Buffalo’s advantage, however, with Polymarket giving the Bills a slightly lower probability than Kalshi. New England remains the only other team with a meaningful chance of winning the division, while the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are considered vast outsiders.
AFC East prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 100.9% at that reading, on $26,064 traded over its life. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| New England Patriots | 32% | 33% | −3 |
| New York Jets | 7% | 5% | +1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1% | 2% | −1 |
Compare the latest AFC East divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who will win the AFC North?
The Baltimore Ravens lead the AFC North prediction markets in 2026, but the Cincinnati Bengals remain firmly in contention in what is close to a two-horse race.
Baltimore have established themselves as one of the conference’s most consistent teams in recent seasons, while Cincinnati will be hoping that Joe Burrow can stay healthy and lead the Bengals back into contention. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are well behind in both prediction markets.
The two markets are closely aligned on the Ravens as favourites, and offer similar probabilities on the Bengals.
AFC North prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 100.0% at that reading, on $44,056 traded over its life. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 52% | 52% | +3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 37% | 34% | −2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 16% | 13% | 0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1% | 1% | −2 |
Compare the latest AFC North divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who will win the AFC South?
The Houston Texans are favourites to win the AFC South in 2026, with both Kalshi and Polymarket putting them ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts.
Houston’s position at the top of the market comes despite the Jacksonville Jaguars having the better regular-season record in 2025, 13-4 to the Texans’ 12-5, yet the Jaguars are rated second by both prediction markets, with the Colts also considered credible contenders.
There is broad agreement between Kalshi and Polymarket on the order of the division, although the markets differ slightly on the size of the gap between the Texans and their closest challengers.
Former Jacksonville linebacker Paul Posluszny is more bullish on the Jaguars, however, having backed them to challenge for the AFC South in his NFL predictions for 2026. That creates an interesting contrast between the prediction markets and the former NFL player’s assessment.
AFC South prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 13 September 2026 at 12:48 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 101.5% at that reading, on $20,137 traded over its life. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 45% | 47% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 29% | 28% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20% | 22% |
| Tennessee Titans | 7% | 6% |
Compare the latest AFC South divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who will win the AFC West?
The AFC West is shaping up as one of the closest divisional races in the 2026 NFL season, with the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers all given a realistic chance of finishing top.
The Broncos have the narrowest edge on Kalshi after winning the division last season with a 14-3 record, while Polymarket gives Kansas City the slight advantage. The Chargers are not far behind on either exchange, meaning there is little consensus over which of the three teams will ultimately claim the division.
Kansas City are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 6-11 campaign, while Patrick Mahomes is returning from the knee injury that ended his 2025 season. Denver, meanwhile, have retained the core of the team that reached the AFC Championship Game last season, while the Chargers will hope continued development under Jim Harbaugh can push them into contention.
The Las Vegas Raiders are significant outsiders, with both markets putting them well behind the three leading contenders.
AFC West prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 98.9% at that reading, on $29,372 traded over its life. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 53% | 50% | +17 |
| Denver Broncos | 24% | 25% | −9 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 18% | 21% | −11 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7% | 4% | +2 |
Compare the latest AFC West divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
NFC division winner predictions
Who will win the NFC East?
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the NFC East prediction markets, but the Dallas Cowboys are close behind.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket currently put Philadelphia narrowly ahead of Dallas, with the two teams accounting for most of the market. The Washington Commanders and New York Giants are considered outsiders, although both retain a considerably stronger chance than the teams at the bottom of some other NFL divisions.
NFC East prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 101.0% at that reading, on $24,005 traded over its life. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 53% | 49% | +8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 21% | 23% | −13 |
| New York Giants | 22% | 22% | +10 |
| Washington Commanders | 8% | 8% | −4 |
Compare the latest NFC East divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who will win the NFC North?
The Detroit Lions lead the NFC North prediction markets, but there is little to separate the four teams, with the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears also given a significant chance of finishing top, while the Minnesota Vikings are not completely discounted either.
Detroit lead by a fair margin on both Kalshi and Polymarket, but it’s the chasing pack where there is little separation.
Detroit are clear at the top; the other three are grouped closely enough that the order between them moves week to week, and the two venues do not always rank them the same way.
The two markets are broadly aligned, but this division is proving hard to call with any real certainty at this stage.
NFC North prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 99.5% at that reading, on $24,079 traded over its life. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 35% | 38% | +1 |
| Chicago Bears | 30% | 29% | +6 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 20% | 18% | −1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 17% | 16% | −9 |
Compare the latest NFC North divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who will win the NFC South?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFC South prediction markets, but as in the NFC North, the division is one of the most open in the NFL, with relatively little separating all four teams.
Tampa Bay head the field on both Kalshi and Polymarket, while the New Orleans Saints edge out the Carolina Panthers to be the second-most fancied franchise.
The Atlanta Falcons have the lowest probability with both, but there is considerably less separation between the teams than in divisions such as the AFC East.
NFC South prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 100.5% at that reading, on $29,908 traded over its life. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 36% | 35% | −3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 29% | 30% | +2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 22% | 20% | 0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 17% | 17% | 0 |
Compare the latest NFC South divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Who will win the NFC West?
Saving arguably the best until last, the NFC West prediction markets are packed with some of the best storylines for the season.
The LA Rams went into the season as the Super Bowl LXI favourites, but a shock opening-round defeat in Australia to the San Francisco 49ers provided an early reminder of the challenge they face in a division packed with quality.
With the defending Super Bowl champions, the Seattle Seahawks, and the 49ers also in the division, it’s shaping up to be a thrilling race to win the NFC West.
With those three sides so highly rated, the Arizona Cardinals are priced among the longest divisional shots in the league.
This is the division where Kalshi and Polymarket diverge most, and the live table below shows where. Part of the gap is the Polymarket book: on 13 September the 49ers contract there showed a bid of 23 against an ask of 35, a twelve-point spread, and a figure quoted from the middle of a gap that wide is not a price so much as a guess at one. On Kalshi the same three contracts each had a one-point spread between bid and ask: the 49ers 35 to 36, the Seahawks 33 to 34 and the Rams 33 to 34. Two points separate the three teams there, and one point separates what a buyer would pay from what a seller would take.
NFC West prediction market odds
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 98.4% at that reading, on $29,040 traded over its life. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 35% | 36% | +2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 34% | 30% | −2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 31% | 32% | −4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3% | 1% | +1 |
Compare the latest NFC West divisional champion prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
What do prediction markets tell us about the NFL division races?
The prediction markets suggest there are few foregone conclusions heading into the 2026 NFL season, with several divisions featuring multiple teams capable of finishing top.
The AFC West looks like one of the closest division races, with the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers all closely matched in the prediction markets.
The NFC West is similarly difficult to call, with the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks all given a 30% or greater chance of winning the division on Kalshi. The NFC South is another highly competitive race, with all four teams carrying a meaningful probability.
At the other end of the scale, the AFC East and AFC South have clearer market favourites in the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans respectively, while the NFC East appears to be primarily a race between Philadelphia and Dallas.
While some favourites have emerged, those markets will continue to provide a live view of which teams are strengthening their claims - and which are falling away - as the season develops.
Kalshi prices are shown for information. iPredicta has no commercial relationship with Kalshi, and Kalshi’s sports contracts are not available in every US state. Polymarket links carry our referral code; see the affiliate disclosure.
