The 2026 NFL season is underway, but who do the prediction markets expect to win the NFL Most Valuable Player award come the end of the campaign in February?
The race looks to be wide open, with no player currently reaching a 20% implied probability on either Kalshi or polymarket.com. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are among the leading contenders, although the two prediction markets do not align on who should be favourite.
Here, we compare the latest NFL MVP prediction market odds and probabilities on Kalshi and Polymarket to see which quarterbacks are being backed to win the award - and where the two major markets don’t align.
For the latest NFL MVP prediction market prices and other season-long markets, see our NFL prediction markets page.
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Who are the favourites to win NFL MVP in 2026?
Prices read from Kalshi and Polymarket on 16 September 2026 at 15:41 UTC, refreshed daily. The Polymarket book summed to 93.0% at that reading, on $924,597 traded over its life. The table shows the 10 shortest-priced of 49 outcomes listed; the remaining probability is spread across the others. Change is the move in the average of the two venues' prices, in points, since our reading on 13 September 2026. Click through to the Kalshi market and the Polymarket market for the figures right now.
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 16% | 16% | +5 |
| Caleb Williams | 12% | 14% | +6 |
| Lamar Jackson | 12% | 12% | +1 |
| Joe Burrow | 9% | 7% | −2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7% | 8% | +2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6% | 5% | −1 |
| Brock Purdy | 6% | 5% | −2 |
| Drake Maye | 5% | 2% | −4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4% | 3% | +1 |
| Justin Herbert | 3% | 4% | −7 |
There is no standout favourite in the 2026 NFL MVP race as the season gets underway.
Star names Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are among the leading contenders, with Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow also within striking distance on both platforms, highlighting just how open the MVP race is.
Patrick Mahomes and last year’s winner Matthew Stafford are both in the broader picture, but some way behind rival candidates.
View the latest NFL MVP prediction markets on Polymarket or check the latest NFL MVP winner market on Kalshi for the current prices.
Why is the NFL MVP prediction market so open?
The lack of a clear favourite reflects just how competitive the 2026 NFL MVP race is, with several established quarterbacks entering the season with a credible case for landing the award.
Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are all established as elite performers, while younger players including Drake Maye and Caleb Williams also feature prominently, with their continued development potentially having a major influence on their respective teams.
With so many players capable of putting together an MVP-calibre season, there is little to separate the leading candidates at this stage. The nature of the MVP award also makes the market particularly difficult to predict early in the season, with individual performances only part of the equation. A quarterback’s chances are likely to rise or fall alongside his team’s success, meaning an unexpected playoff run can quickly change the picture.
One name not looking a realistic contender is reigning MVP, Stafford. Despite the Los Angeles Rams being the Super Bowl LXI favourites, the market does not expect Stafford to become the first player since Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021 to win the award in consecutive seasons.
The star-studded nature of the Rams roster could count against Stafford, with any standout performances potentially being viewed as part of an elite operation rather than the individual brilliance often associated with MVP winners.
Ranking the 2026 NFL MVP contenders
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson has emerged as one of the leading candidates to win the award for a third time. His combination of passing ability and rushing production can lead to standout individual statistics that lend themselves to MVP votes.
Josh Allen
Josh Allen remains one of the strongest candidates in the 2026 NFL MVP prediction market, with the Buffalo Bills quarterback trading at a similar price across both major platforms.
Allen has a particularly strong case given he already won the award in 2024 and finished third in the voting last season. Like Jackson, his ability to combine passing production with rushing ability also makes him an eye-catching option.
He also has strong support outside the prediction markets. Former Bills linebacker Paul Posluszny has backed Allen to claim the MVP award in an exclusive iPredicta NFL predictions 2026 interview.
The Bills are again expected to compete at the top of the AFC, and are among the Super Bowl 61 favourites, which is important for Allen’s MVP prospects. Quarterbacks on successful teams have historically dominated the award, meaning Buffalo’s performance could have almost as much influence on Allen’s chances as his individual statistics.
Joe Burrow
Sitting alongside Allen near the top of the prediction markets is Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow. He has the talent and supporting cast to put together an MVP-calibre season, while an improved Bengals team would strengthen his case further.
Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert is another player attracting significant support. The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback is priced in the same area as his rivals, and if LA can challenge for the AFC’s top seed, he could push his case further as a standout star.
Drake Maye
Drake Maye represents a different type of MVP candidate. The New England Patriots quarterback is entering his second season after finishing second in the MVP voting in 2025, and his price has made him one of the most prominent younger contenders. A further step forward combined with another successful Patriots season could quickly push him towards the top of the market.
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is one who can’t be overlooked. He has already won the award twice and remains capable of producing an MVP-calibre season, although his current prediction-market price is below the leading group. Following surgery to repair ACL and LCL injuries, a narrative of a heroic return leading his side deep into the playoffs could boost his chances.
Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy sits inside the leading group on both markets, eighth on Kalshi and seventh on Polymarket at the time of writing, and above Mahomes on the latter. If the San Francisco 49ers can sustain a challenge in a crowded NFC West, the quarterback of a winning team in that division would have the profile the award has tended to reward.
What do prediction markets tell us about the 2026 NFL MVP race?
The 2026 NFL MVP prediction markets suggest there is no clear favourite heading into the season, with several quarterbacks holding a realistic chance of winning the award.
Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow are all within a few percentage points, while younger contenders such as Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are also close enough to challenge if their teams perform well.
That makes the market particularly sensitive to early-season results. A strong opening month from one of the leading candidates could quickly see their probability rise, while an injury or poor run of results could cause another quarterback to take their place near the top.
Ultimately, the prediction markets are not identifying a player who is overwhelmingly likely to win the award. Instead, they point to a wide-open race in which team success, individual production and early-season momentum could rapidly reshape the market.
The dominance of quarterbacks is also striking, with non-quarterback candidates currently trading at much lower probabilities.
2026 NFL MVP prediction
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are among the most consistently highly ranked options across both major prediction markets, suggesting a greater degree of consensus around their chances. Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott are also close enough that a strong start to the season could quickly change the picture, although there is less uniformity between Polymarket and Kalshi when it comes to their chances.
With several elite quarterbacks separated by only a few percentage points, the early weeks of the 2026 NFL season could have a major impact on the MVP race and, in turn, reshape the prediction markets.
Kalshi prices are shown for information. iPredicta has no commercial relationship with Kalshi, and Kalshi’s sports contracts are not available in every US state. Polymarket links carry our referral code; see the affiliate disclosure.
