We tracked 71 Senate and governor races with a market on Kalshi or polymarket.com. As of 09:29 UK time on 4 November 2026, the Associated Press had called 66 of them. In 63 of those 66, the favourite on the markets at the close of polling won. Five races were still uncalled at that time and are left out of every figure here: the Alaska, Kansas and Nevada governor races and the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races.
Every result in this piece is AP's race call. AP says its Decision Team declares a winner when it is certain the trailing candidates no longer have a path to victory.
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The headline numbers
- All called races: the markets' favourite won 63 of 66.
- Kalshi: its favourite won 60 of the 63 called races it had a qualifying final price for. It had none, either no market or no two-sided price before the close, in the New Hampshire governor race or the Florida and Ohio Senate races.
- polymarket.com: its favourite won 62 of 65. It had no qualifying final price in the California governor race.
- The two venues never disagreed. In every race both of them priced, Kalshi and polymarket.com had the same favourite.
Polymarket US is not scored. Our capture recorded its prices without bids and asks, so the two-sided rule below cannot be applied to it.
The three misses
In all three the favourite was priced at 74% or less, and both venues missed each of them.
- Texas governor. At 00:56 UTC, before polls closed at 01:00 UTC, Greg Abbott was at 60.5% on Kalshi and 61.25% on polymarket.com. AP called the race for Gina Hinojosa at 04:17 UK time.
- Nebraska Senate. At 01:56 UTC, before polls closed at 02:00 UTC, the independent Dan Osborn was at 70.5% on Kalshi and 74% on polymarket.com. AP called the race for Pete Ricketts at 08:27 UK time.
- South Carolina Senate. At 23:56 UTC on 3 November, before polls closed at 00:00 UTC, the Republican, Darline Graham, was at 62.5% on both venues. AP called the race for Annie Andrews at 03:39 UK time.
No called race was a toss-up. The rule set before the election treats a race as a toss-up when no candidate is above 60%, and the lowest favourite in any called race was Greg Abbott at 60.5% on Kalshi.
How the confidence held up
Grouping the favourites by their final price shows where the misses sat.
| Favourite's final price | Kalshi: favourite won | polymarket.com: favourite won |
|---|---|---|
| 90% or more | 47 of 47 | 47 of 47 |
| 80% to 90% | 6 of 6 | 7 of 7 |
| 70% to 80% | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
| 60% to 70% | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
Every favourite priced at 80% or more won. All three misses came from the 60% to 80% bands, which held 10 of Kalshi's favourites and 11 of polymarket.com's.
Control of Congress
At 22:56 UTC on 3 November, before the first polls closed, Kalshi priced the Democrats winning the Senate at 74.5% and polymarket.com at 75.5%. For the House, Kalshi had the Democrats at 93.25% and polymarket.com at 94.5%.
As of 09:29 UK time on 4 November, AP had called control of both chambers for the Democrats, with 54 Senate seats and 228 House seats called for them and 2 Senate and 68 House races still to be called.
Against the polls
270toWin published a general-election polling average for 47 of the 66 called races, which we read at 20:00 UTC on 3 November. The polling leader won 43 of those 47, and the markets' favourite won 44.
They did not miss the same races:
- Both missed Texas governor and South Carolina Senate.
- Only the polls missed the Georgia governor race, where Rick Jackson led Keisha Lance Bottoms 48.8% to 48.6% and AP called it for Bottoms, and the Vermont governor race, where Amanda Janoo led Phil Scott 48.5% to 46.0% on two polls and AP called it for Scott.
- Only the markets missed Nebraska Senate, where the polls had Pete Ricketts ahead 47.6% to 45.0%.
How we measured it
We fixed the method on 2 November, before any result was known, and recorded every Senate and governor market on Kalshi and polymarket.com every 15 minutes from 11:40 UTC on 2 November until 09:00 UTC on 4 November.
- The final price is the last price we captured before that state's first polls closed, using The Hill's guide to closing times, and Clark County's election notice for Nevada. In states that straddle two time zones, the earlier closing counts.
- It must be two-sided: someone was bidding to buy and someone was asking to sell, and the two prices were no more than 10 points apart. A one-sided or very wide market does not count.
- We take the midpoint of the bid and the ask. A 60 bid and a 61 ask is 60.5%.
- A race is called correctly when the leg with the highest final price won, by AP's race call. Races AP had not called are pending and are not counted.
Every race
The last two columns are AP's race calls, with times in UK time on 4 November unless marked. The table gives each venue's favourite at its final price, one race to a row.
| Race | Kalshi favourite | polymarket.com favourite | Called for, and when | Favourite won? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Senate | Barry Moore 97.25% | Barry Moore 97.15% | Barry Moore, 04:17 | Yes |
| Alaska Senate | pending | pending | Not yet called | Pending |
| Arkansas Senate | Tom Cotton 95.75% | Tom Cotton 94.25% | Tom Cotton, 03:40 | Yes |
| Colorado Senate | John Hickenlooper 99.65% | John Hickenlooper 99.4% | John Hickenlooper, 02:00 | Yes |
| Delaware Senate | Chris Coons 98.45% | Democratic leg 98.35% | Chris Coons, 01:00 | Yes |
| Florida Senate | no qualifying price | Ashley Moody 84.5% | Ashley Moody, 01:34 | Yes |
| Georgia Senate | Jon Ossoff 98.3% | Jon Ossoff 98.8% | Jon Ossoff, 00:55 | Yes |
| Idaho Senate | Jim Risch 97.05% | Jim Risch 96.9% | Jim Risch, 06:31 | Yes |
| Illinois Senate | Juliana Stratton 99.05% | Juliana Stratton 98.95% | Juliana Stratton, 01:00 | Yes |
| Iowa Senate | Josh Turek 86.5% | Josh Turek 88.5% | Josh Turek, 04:35 | Yes |
| Kansas Senate | Adam Hamilton 74.5% | Adam Hamilton 75.5% | Adam Hamilton, 04:24 | Yes |
| Kentucky Senate | Andy Barr 97.25% | Andy Barr 97.2% | Andy Barr, 02:16 | Yes |
| Louisiana Senate | Julia Letlow 65.5% | Julia Letlow 67% | Julia Letlow, 05:31 | Yes |
| Maine Senate | Troy Jackson 77.5% | Troy Jackson 76.5% | Troy Jackson, 06:02 | Yes |
| Massachusetts Senate | Ed Markey 98.6% | Ed Markey 98.95% | Ed Markey, 01:01 | Yes |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-Sayed 87.5% | Abdul El-Sayed 88.5% | Abdul El-Sayed, 07:27 | Yes |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan 96.85% | Peggy Flanagan 97.6% | Peggy Flanagan, 05:07 | Yes |
| Mississippi Senate | pending | pending | Not yet called | Pending |
| Montana Senate | Kurt Alme 89% | Kurt Alme 88.5% | Kurt Alme, 07:54 | Yes |
| Nebraska Senate | Dan Osborn 70.5% | Independent leg (Dan Osborn) 74% | Pete Ricketts, 08:27 | No |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris Pappas 94.8% | Chris Pappas 96% | Chris Pappas, 01:20 | Yes |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory Booker 98.85% | Cory Booker 98.95% | Cory Booker, 01:00 | Yes |
| New Mexico Senate | Ben Ray Luján 98.95% | Ben Ray Luján 98.85% | Ben Ray Luján, 02:00 | Yes |
| North Carolina Senate | Roy Cooper 98.05% | Roy Cooper 98.7% | Roy Cooper, 01:23 | Yes |
| Ohio Senate | no qualifying price | Sherrod Brown 77.5% | Sherrod Brown, 04:10 | Yes |
| Oklahoma Senate | Kevin Hern 98.1% | Kevin Hern 98.8% | Kevin Hern, 02:36 | Yes |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff Merkley 99.55% | Jeff Merkley 99.45% | Jeff Merkley, 04:00 | Yes |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed 99.05% | Jack Reed 98.85% | Jack Reed, 01:01 | Yes |
| South Carolina Senate | Darline Graham 62.5% | Darline Graham 62.5% | Annie Andrews, 03:39 | No |
| South Dakota Senate | Mike Rounds 95.4% | Mike Rounds 94.8% | Mike Rounds, 05:02 | Yes |
| Tennessee Senate | Bill Hagerty 97.25% | Bill Hagerty 98.3% | Bill Hagerty, 04:28 | Yes |
| Texas Senate | James Talarico 81.5% | James Talarico 84.5% | James Talarico, 04:03 | Yes |
| Virginia Senate | Mark Warner 99.45% | Mark Warner 99.1% | Mark Warner, 00:00 | Yes |
| West Virginia Senate | Shelley Moore Capito 99.15% | Shelley Moore Capito 98.45% | Shelley Moore Capito, 01:52 | Yes |
| Wyoming Senate | Harriet Hageman 98.7% | Harriet Hageman 96.05% | Harriet Hageman, 02:00 | Yes |
| Alabama Governor | Tommy Tuberville 91.4% | Tommy Tuberville 92.85% | Tommy Tuberville, 06:36 | Yes |
| Alaska Governor | pending | pending | Not yet called | Pending |
| Arizona Governor | Katie Hobbs 96.6% | Katie Hobbs 97.85% | Katie Hobbs, 08:20 | Yes |
| Arkansas Governor | Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97.05% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders 97.4% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders, 03:40 | Yes |
| California Governor | Xavier Becerra 99.2% | no qualifying price | Xavier Becerra, 04:00 | Yes |
| Colorado Governor | Phil Weiser 99% | Phil Weiser 98.85% | Phil Weiser, 02:00 | Yes |
| Connecticut Governor | Ned Lamont 96.8% | Ned Lamont 97.65% | Ned Lamont, 02:17 | Yes |
| Florida Governor | Byron Donalds 61.5% | Byron Donalds 61.5% | Byron Donalds, 02:09 | Yes |
| Georgia Governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms 75% | Keisha Lance Bottoms 74.5% | Keisha Lance Bottoms, 02:24 | Yes |
| Hawaii Governor | Josh Green 99.55% | Josh Green 98.65% | Josh Green, 05:00 | Yes |
| Idaho Governor | Brad Little 97.75% | Brad Little 98.55% | Brad Little, 05:36 | Yes |
| Illinois Governor | JB Pritzker 97.4% | JB Pritzker 98.6% | JB Pritzker, 01:00 | Yes |
| Iowa Governor | Rob Sand 93.5% | Rob Sand 94.45% | Rob Sand, 04:12 | Yes |
| Kansas Governor | pending | pending | Not yet called | Pending |
| Maine Governor | Hannah Pingree 96.65% | Hannah Pingree 97.95% | Hannah Pingree, 04:29 | Yes |
| Maryland Governor | Wes Moore 99.35% | Wes Moore 99.55% | Wes Moore, 01:01 | Yes |
| Massachusetts Governor | Maura Healey 98.4% | Maura Healey 98.95% | Maura Healey, 01:01 | Yes |
| Michigan Governor | Jocelyn Benson 97.15% | Jocelyn Benson 98.3% | Jocelyn Benson, 06:45 | Yes |
| Minnesota Governor | Amy Klobuchar 98.75% | Amy Klobuchar 98.4% | Amy Klobuchar, 05:07 | Yes |
| Nebraska Governor | Jim Pillen 63.5% | Jim Pillen 67% | Jim Pillen, 07:53 | Yes |
| Nevada Governor | pending | pending | Not yet called | Pending |
| New Hampshire Governor | no qualifying price | Kelly Ayotte 85.95% | Kelly Ayotte, 05:42 | Yes |
| New Mexico Governor | Deb Haaland 95.95% | Deb Haaland 97.25% | Deb Haaland, 03:40 | Yes |
| New York Governor | Kathy Hochul 98.5% | Kathy Hochul 99.15% | Kathy Hochul, 02:00 | Yes |
| Ohio Governor | Amy Acton 82.5% | Amy Acton 84.5% | Amy Acton, 03:49 | Yes |
| Oklahoma Governor | Mike Mazzei 89.5% | Mike Mazzei 90.5% | Mike Mazzei, 04:46 | Yes |
| Oregon Governor | Tina Kotek 91.75% | Tina Kotek 92% | Tina Kotek, 08:49 | Yes |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Josh Shapiro 99.1% | Josh Shapiro 99.5% | Josh Shapiro, 01:01 | Yes |
| Rhode Island Governor | Helena Foulkes 97.75% | Helena Foulkes 98.45% | Helena Foulkes, 01:32 | Yes |
| South Carolina Governor | Alan Wilson 92.05% | Alan Wilson 93.8% | Alan Wilson, 05:35 | Yes |
| South Dakota Governor | Larry Rhoden 98.55% | Larry Rhoden 98.1% | Larry Rhoden, 04:45 | Yes |
| Tennessee Governor | Marsha Blackburn 90.8% | Marsha Blackburn 90.25% | Marsha Blackburn, 05:43 | Yes |
| Texas Governor | Greg Abbott 60.5% | Greg Abbott 61.25% | Gina Hinojosa, 04:17 | No |
| Vermont Governor | Phil Scott 62.5% | Phil Scott 64.5% | Phil Scott, 05:35 | Yes |
| Wisconsin Governor | David Crowley 93.65% | David Crowley 94.1% | David Crowley, 04:28 | Yes |
| Wyoming Governor | Eric Barlow 99% | Eric Barlow 98.75% | Eric Barlow, 02:00 | Yes |
The figures are as of 09:29 UK time on 4 November 2026 and will be updated as AP calls the remaining races; each update will carry a dated note.
