iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

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Climate

The 5kt Meteor Strike Market on Polymarket and What It Actually Measures

Polymarket is running a 2026 contract on whether a meteor will explode in Earth's atmosphere with at least 5 kilotons of energy. Here is what it tracks.

19 June 2026
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Geopolitics

The Hormuz Shipping Contract Counting Down to a 30 June Deadline

A Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic is approaching its 30 June deadline. Here is what it actually measures and what would settle it.

19 June 2026
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Culture

Three senators ask the FCC to freeze the Paramount-Warner Bros. close, and Polymarket still backs Paramount

Democratic senators want the FCC to delay the $111bn Paramount-Warner Bros. close pending a foreign investment review. Polymarket still has Paramount near 81%.

19 June 2026
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Sports

USA vs Australia: Pochettino's side at 61% as Group D's matchday two opens with both sides on three points

Polymarket prices the USA at 61% to beat Australia in Group D's second round, with the draw at 22% and both teams to score the night's quiet hot leg.

19 June 2026
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Sports

Canada 6-0 Qatar puts the Group B winner contract within touching distance

Canada thrashed Qatar 6-0 in the World Cup group stage. The Polymarket Group B winner contract has narrowed sharply, with two legs already settled.

19 June 2026
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Sports

Bosnia favoured at 69% over Qatar as Polymarket prices a must-win Group B fixture

Polymarket has Bosnia and Herzegovina at 69% against Qatar on 24 June, with the draw at 20% and Qatar at 13%. Here's what the contract is really pricing.

19 June 2026
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Politics

Trump's Georgia stumble and the Polymarket contract that's nearly all settled

A self-funded outsider beat Trump's endorsed pick in Georgia. The Polymarket endorsement ladder is now mostly resolved. Here's what the market still tracks.

19 June 2026
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Politics

What Polymarket's 2028 Presidential Election Market Is Actually Asking

Polymarket's 2028 US presidential market spreads across 37 candidates with no clear favourite. The leading names, the long-shots, and what the odds say.

18 June 2026
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Economy

SpaceX Starship full reusability before 2027: what the Polymarket contract is really asking

Polymarket's Starship full reusability market sits split as of June 2026. Here's what the contract actually measures, and why the resolution rule matters.

18 June 2026
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Sports

Tyreek Hill's next NFL home: the Polymarket contract pricing where he lands

Polymarket's Tyreek Hill market prices where the receiver plays next, with the Chiefs leading and Eagles in second. A look at what the contract can and cannot tell you.

18 June 2026
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Sports

Portugal held by DR Congo in Houston and Group K's market just flipped open

Portugal drew 1-1 with DR Congo at the Houston Stadium and the Group K winner contract on Polymarket lost its clear favourite overnight.

18 June 2026
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Climate

The Major Oak is Dead, and Polymarket's 2026 Heat Ranking Tells the Background Story

Sherwood Forest's thousand-year-old Major Oak failed to leaf this spring after years of hot, dry summers. Polymarket's 2026 heat ranking market puts the climate context in numbers.

18 June 2026