Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Strava's IPO Question Lands on Polymarket: What the Cap-Range Contract Actually Tracks
Polymarket's Strava IPO contract asks where the fitness app's market cap lands on day one. A look at the contract's structure, not the lean.
What Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee market is actually pricing
Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee contract puts Gavin Newsom out in front of a long field. What the structure of the market actually tells you.
Kraken's IPO market cap question lands on Polymarket and the field is wide open
Polymarket's Kraken IPO market cap contract spreads bets across seven dollar bands from $16B to $28B. Here's what the structure actually tells you.
Bogotá's vote inside Colombia's presidential runoff: what the Polymarket contract actually measures
A Polymarket contract on who wins Bogotá in Colombia's June 21 runoff has narrowed to a two-name question. Here's what it tracks and how it resolves.
Hungary's presidential standoff sends the Polymarket leaders contract lurching toward Starmer
A Hungarian succession row jolted Polymarket's next-leader-out contract, with Starmer suddenly the dominant name at 67%. The mechanics matter more than the move.
Polymarket puts a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by end-2026 at 28%, and the Belarus threat doesn't move the needle
Zelenskyy threatened to strike Russian relay stations in Belarus. Polymarket's end-2026 peace-deal contract sits at 28% Yes, 72% No. Here's what that means.
Lula leads Brazil's 2026 presidential market at 52% as a 2004 football match resurfaces in foreign policy lore
Polymarket has Lula at 52% to win Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, with a Bolsonaro-name field trailing. A 2004 friendly with Haiti explains the backdrop.
Polymarket's alien-disclosure contract has run out of runway, and only three legs are still alive
Three legs of Polymarket's US alien-disclosure ladder have already resolved No. What's left, what it would take, and why the contract is structurally interesting.
The 5kt Meteor Strike Market on Polymarket and What It Actually Measures
Polymarket is running a 2026 contract on whether a meteor will explode in Earth's atmosphere with at least 5 kilotons of energy. Here is what it tracks.
The Hormuz Shipping Contract Counting Down to a 30 June Deadline
A Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic is approaching its 30 June deadline. Here is what it actually measures and what would settle it.
Three senators ask the FCC to freeze the Paramount-Warner Bros. close, and Polymarket still backs Paramount
Democratic senators want the FCC to delay the $111bn Paramount-Warner Bros. close pending a foreign investment review. Polymarket still has Paramount near 81%.
USA vs Australia: Pochettino's side at 61% as Group D's matchday two opens with both sides on three points
Polymarket prices the USA at 61% to beat Australia in Group D's second round, with the draw at 22% and both teams to score the night's quiet hot leg.