Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Two council seats change hands, and what it says about reading micro-elections
The Tories took Fylde, the Lib Dems took Malvern Hills. Two tiny council by-elections, and a reminder of why prediction markets struggle with this stuff.
Farage's finances and the Reform trade: what the markets are actually pricing
A county court judgement and a £5m crypto donation have put Nigel Farage's finances back in the spotlight. What does it mean for the Reform trade?
Wall Street Bets the Next Fed Move Is Up, Not Down
Traders are repricing 2026 Fed policy as Kevin Warsh takes the chair and an Iran war shock feeds into inflation. Prediction markets are catching up fast.
Tuchel's England Cuts: What the Toney Call and Foden Snub Mean for the Markets
England's 2026 World Cup squad drops Foden, Palmer and Alexander-Arnold while calling up Ivan Toney. The market reaction tells you who Tuchel actually trusts.
Guardiola's Exit and the Premier League Title Market: What the Odds Move Now
Pep Guardiola is leaving Manchester City this summer. Here's how prediction markets are likely to reprice the 2025/26 Premier League title race.
Nine hours in the Greens: what a botched by-election candidacy says about political risk markets
A Green by-election candidate quit within nine hours after a resurfaced post about a Jewish ambulance attack. What the chaos tells us about pricing political risk.
Solana ETF Odds Nudge Past Coin-Flip Territory on Kalshi
Kalshi traders pushed Solana ETF approval odds from 50.5% to 52% on 8 May 2026, a small but telling shift on $2.7M of volume. Here's what the move says.
The Streeting Standoff: What Prediction Markets See That Westminster Reporters Miss
Reporting suggested Wes Streeting may have the 81 MPs needed to challenge Keir Starmer. Here is how prediction markets are pricing the Labour leadership standoff.