iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

A football player in a red long-sleeve Adidas jersey and blue shorts walks on a green pitch near a white ball, with a packed stadium crowd in red and yellow behind them.
Sports

The BBC's biggest-ever World Cup, and the market that already has a favourite

The BBC promises its biggest World Cup coverage ever from 11 June. Polymarket has already priced the tournament. France leads at 17%, England third at 11.45%.

4 June 2026
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Geopolitics

Diesel, the OECD and the Iran market that won't quite settle

The OECD warns rural Britain faces diesel shortages if the Iran conflict drags on. Prediction markets are still pricing the regime question with surprising caution.

4 June 2026
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Politics

The doom-loop trade: what Polly Curtis gets right that the Starmer market misses

Polly Curtis says Britain is in a democratic doom loop. Polymarket is betting Starmer leaves office in 2026, but the exit market still prices the surface question, not the one Curtis is asking.

4 June 2026
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Sports

Yamal makes the cut: World Cup squads land, and the group-stage market sharpens

Spain name Lamine Yamal in their 2026 World Cup squad as the June 1 deadline approaches. Here's what the squad reveals mean for the knockout-stage market.

27 May 2026
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Sports

Pochettino's USMNT 26 and the knockout-stage market that won't sit still

Pochettino names his USMNT World Cup 26 with Pulisic, Adams and McKennie. Here's how the squad reshapes the knockout-stage prediction market.

27 May 2026
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Geopolitics

The Taiwan arms pause, the Iran cover story, and what markets price for 2027

A $14bn Taiwan arms package sits in limbo and Washington blames Iran. Experts are not buying it, and prediction markets are pricing the China-Taiwan question accordingly.

27 May 2026
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Politics

Texas, Paxton, and the Senate market that refuses to flinch

Texas Democrats see Ken Paxton's primary win as their opening. The Senate control market on Polymarket has barely moved. Here is why traders are unconvinced.

27 May 2026
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Climate

Indonesia's eternity glaciers are nearly gone, and the climate contracts are watching

Puncak Jaya's tropical glaciers have all but vanished. What Indonesia's disappearing ice signals for the climate contracts traders are pricing into 2026.

27 May 2026
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Economy

The $2.3B short trade and the bear case on prediction markets

S3 Partners reports $2.3B in short profits against listed bookmakers in 2026. Two Sigma, DE Shaw, AQR and others still hold. The bear case on prediction markets, taken seriously.

26 May 2026
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Sports

What Colombia's World Cup squad tells you about the group-stage market

Colombia named James Rodriguez and Luis Díaz in their 26-man World Cup squad. Here is what the roster reveal means for the group-stage advancement market.

26 May 2026
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Economy

Brent at $100 and the recession contract nobody wants to price

Oil is bouncing near $100 after the Strait of Hormuz closure. Here's what that does to US recession odds, and how prediction markets are reading the risk.

25 May 2026
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Geopolitics

Prediction Markets Bet the Iran Deal Comes This Week, Not Today

Rubio says good news is hours away. Trump says the deal is largely negotiated. Polymarket says today is a coin flip and the framework lands later this week.

24 May 2026