Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Pochettino's USMNT 26 and the knockout-stage market that won't sit still
Pochettino names his USMNT World Cup 26 with Pulisic, Adams and McKennie. Here's how the squad reshapes the knockout-stage prediction market.
The Taiwan arms pause, the Iran cover story, and what markets price for 2027
A $14bn Taiwan arms package sits in limbo and Washington blames Iran. Experts are not buying it, and prediction markets are pricing the China-Taiwan question accordingly.
Texas, Paxton, and the Senate market that refuses to flinch
Texas Democrats see Ken Paxton's primary win as their opening. The Senate control market on Polymarket has barely moved. Here is why traders are unconvinced.
Indonesia's eternity glaciers are nearly gone, and the climate contracts are watching
Puncak Jaya's tropical glaciers have all but vanished. What Indonesia's disappearing ice signals for the climate contracts traders are pricing into 2026.
The $2.3B short trade and the bear case on prediction markets
S3 Partners reports $2.3B in short profits against listed bookmakers in 2026. Two Sigma, DE Shaw, AQR and others still hold. The bear case on prediction markets, taken seriously.
What Colombia's World Cup squad tells you about the group-stage market
Colombia named James Rodriguez and Luis Díaz in their 26-man World Cup squad. Here is what the roster reveal means for the group-stage advancement market.
Brent at $100 and the recession contract nobody wants to price
Oil is bouncing near $100 after the Strait of Hormuz closure. Here's what that does to US recession odds, and how prediction markets are reading the risk.
Prediction Markets Bet the Iran Deal Comes This Week, Not Today
Rubio says good news is hours away. Trump says the deal is largely negotiated. Polymarket says today is a coin flip and the framework lands later this week.
Survival Sunday and the relegation market's nervous last hour
Spurs and West Ham face the drop on the Premier League's final day. Here's how prediction markets are pricing one of the tightest relegation finishes in years.
Somerset Defend Their Crown, but the Blast Barely Registers as a Market
Somerset beat Hampshire again to open the T20 Blast. The cricket trades fine on betting sites, but as a prediction-market contract it barely exists. Here is why.
When a Cast Loss Reaches the Markets: Stewart McLean and the Limits of What Traders Should Price
Stewart McLean of Virgin River was found dead in Lions Bay. A look at why some news belongs nowhere near a trading screen, and where the line sits.
When the Market Knows Who Wins Survivor Before You Do
Kalshi and Polymarket traders called the Survivor 50 winner weeks before CBS aired the finale. Reality TV's spoiler problem just got a price tag.