Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics, climate — written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
Paris hits a brutal end to June, and a Polymarket thermometer is watching where the mercury lands
A record Paris heatwave coincides with a Polymarket contract pricing the day's peak temperature at Le Bourget. Here is what the ladder is actually saying.
Morocco knock the Netherlands out on penalties, and Polymarket's shootout-count ladder lights up
Morocco beat the Netherlands on penalties to reach the World Cup round of 16. Polymarket's shootout-count contract just repriced sharply.
Polymarket's Bitcoin price ladder for the week of June 29 to July 5
Polymarket's Bitcoin June 29 to July 5 price ladder resolves on a single weekly print. Here's what the rungs measure and why the structure matters.
Venezuela's earthquake anger and the Polymarket contract that still has Delcy Rodríguez at 89%
Venezuelans describe a mismanaged government response after twin earthquakes. The Polymarket contract on who runs Venezuela at end-2026 has barely flinched.
Laika's Wildwood arrives as Polymarket's 2026 box-office crown narrows to two
Travis Knight is pitching Wildwood at Annecy as Laika's biggest swing yet. Polymarket's 2026 opening-weekend market has already picked its favourites.
Germany favoured at 73% against Paraguay as the round of 32 begins
Germany are clear favourites at 73% on Polymarket for their World Cup last-32 tie with Paraguay, but the draw at 19% says it's no formality.
Doha talks, the Strait of Hormuz, and Polymarket's US-Iran next-round ladder
Washington and Tehran agreed to resume talks in Doha this week. Polymarket's date ladder on the next senior round shows where traders think the calendar lands.
Wimbledon Starts Today: What Tennis Prediction Markets Are Really Telling You
Wimbledon 2026 begins today, and the outright markets are already priced. Here is how tennis contracts differ from football, US sports, and politics, and what to watch over the fortnight.
Putin signals talks resume after Iran, and Polymarket's Ukraine peace deal contract still leans no
Putin says US negotiators will return to Moscow once Iran cools. Polymarket's Ukraine-Russia peace deal contract by end-2026 still prices No at 74%.
The EEAS turf war reaches the Polymarket contract on Ursula von der Leyen's job
A Politico Europe series asks whether the EU's foreign policy arm can survive a budget squeeze and a Commission turf war. The Polymarket contract on the Commission president has a view.
Polymarket's 2026 NL Rookie of the Year Contract and the Twenty-Name Question It Poses
Polymarket's 2026 NL Rookie of the Year market lists twenty names and one clear front-runner. Here is what the contract actually measures, and what it does not.
The UFC Pound-for-Pound #1 Market on Polymarket Is Really a Bet on Whether the Throne Changes Hands at All
Polymarket's UFC pound-for-pound #1 contract for 2026 isn't a fighter market so much as a referendum on whether anyone dethrones the incumbent at all.