iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

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Politics

The teleprompter operator and what a speech market cannot see

A White House teleprompter operator made over $100,000 on Kalshi speech markets, and his edge was exiting rather than entering. What that says about contracts that resolve in public, and which other classes share the exposure.

17 August 2026
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Tech

What Polymarket's largest-company contract is really measuring on 30 September

A Polymarket contract asks who sits at the top of the corporate world on 30 September 2026. Here is what the market actually resolves on, and why the shape matters.

17 August 2026
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Sports

Sinner led a top-heavy 2026 US Open winner market. Zverev won it.

Polymarket's 2026 US Open men's singles contract was stacked around one clear favourite. Alexander Zverev, priced third at 12%, won the tournament.

17 August 2026
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Politics

Trump's midterm malaise and what Polymarket's Republican Senate seat market is really pricing

A Guardian column argues Trump is sabotaging the midterms. Here is what Polymarket's Republican Senate seat contract shows about how traders are pricing it.

17 August 2026
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Culture

Hacks and the Emmy count contract: what the Astra sweep does and doesn't tell traders

The Astra TV Awards handed hardware to Hacks, The Pitt and Shrinking. Here is what Polymarket's Emmy count contract for Hacks actually measures.

17 August 2026
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Culture

Polymarket's Emmy guest actor drama race: what the contract is really measuring

Polymarket's 2026 Emmy Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series contract has six named contenders and no runaway. Here's what the market actually tracks.

17 August 2026
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Sports

Rodri's Manchester City exit is agreed, not done, and he has a Polymarket contract to defend

Manchester City have accepted Barcelona's bid for Rodri and a four-year deal is agreed, with the medical still to come. What the Polymarket 2026 Ballon d'Or contract says about his chances of a repeat.

17 August 2026
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Politics

AOC leads Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee market, but only just

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits narrowly ahead on Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee contract as of 15 August 2026, with Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff tightly bunched behind.

15 August 2026
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Economy

Polymarket's September Fed contract climbed for four days and did not blink at the CPI print

A Polymarket contract on the Fed's September 2026 decision rose from 60.5% to 74.5% over 72 hours to 15 August, the end of a four-day climb that ran straight through a CPI release.

15 August 2026
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Politics

2026 Midterm Prediction Markets: What lessons can we take from 2024 election?

What can the 2024 US election teach us about 2026 midterm prediction markets? Explore how markets reacted to Biden, Trump and changing political information.

15 August 2026
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Politics

The BBC's Panorama subpoena fight and Polymarket's Trump impeachment contract

The BBC wants Trump's family to give evidence in the Panorama lawsuit over his 6 January speech. Polymarket's impeachment contract leans one way as of mid-August.

15 August 2026
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Politics

Wyoming's Republican primary for governor: what the Polymarket contract is actually measuring

Wyoming Republicans pick their gubernatorial nominee on 18 August 2026. Here's how the Polymarket contract resolves and what it tracks as the deadline nears.

14 August 2026