Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move
Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics, climate — written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.
England's knockout-stage contract sits at 96% as the Dallas opener arrives
Polymarket prices England at 96% to reach the World Cup 2026 last 32 as Tuchel's side kick off in Dallas. What the settling Group L contract still measures.
Polymarket's Republican retirement count sits at 36 to 39, with a non-trivial tail above 44
A Polymarket contract on how many House Republicans skip 2026 has settled on a clear favourite band, but the long tail is doing something interesting.
The FedEx Cup Winner Market Is a Thirty-Name Lottery, and Polymarket Just Concentrated It at the Top
Polymarket's FedEx Cup Playoffs winner market lists 30 names but the probability is bunched at the top. Here's what the contract actually measures.
The birthright citizenship case at the Supreme Court, and the Polymarket contract pricing it as a near-certainty
A Polymarket contract on Trump's birthright citizenship executive order is heavily leaning one way. Here's what the market is actually measuring, and what it isn't.
California's billionaire wealth tax trades at 19% on Polymarket, and that figure means something different to a poll
A 52% poll, a 19% market price. Here is how to read Polymarket's California billionaire wealth tax contract without mistaking probability for sentiment.
Saudi Arabia hold Uruguay 1-1 in Miami, and Group H heads into matchday two with all four teams level
Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay leaves every Group H side on a point. Polymarket's group-winner and advancement contracts moved very differently, and here's why.
Polymarket's Starship 2026 launch count puts a hard ceiling on the year
Polymarket's market on SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 leans heavily toward single digits. What the contract is really measuring.
The 2026 box office crown is a two-horse race on Polymarket, with a Spider-Man and a toy in front
Polymarket's 2026 box office market has Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Toy Story 5 well clear of the field. Here's what the contract actually measures.
Bitcoin's 2026 price ladder repriced hard as the top rung gave way on Polymarket
Polymarket's Bitcoin 2026 ladder lurched as the leading active rung slid from 96% to 80%. Here's what the contract actually measures and what the move tells you.
Pump.fun's airdrop deadline market narrows to one live date on Polymarket
Seven dates have already resolved no on Polymarket's Pump.fun airdrop contract. Only the end-of-2026 leg is still live. Here is what the market is actually asking now.
Cape Verde hold Spain to a goalless draw in Atlanta, and Polymarket reads two different stories
World Cup debutants Cape Verde drew 0-0 with Spain in Atlanta. Polymarket's advancement and Group H winner contracts now tell two very different stories.
MrBeast's day-two view count and the Polymarket contract that has picked a lane
A Polymarket contract is pricing the 48-hour view count of MrBeast's latest YouTube video. Here is what it measures and how it resolves.