iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

Two MMA fighters face each other in fighting stances inside a stylised octagonal cage, rendered as dark silhouettes with white outlines against a warm amber glow, on a deep navy background.
Sports

UFC 330 Predictions: What Prediction Markets expect to see in Philadelphia

UFC 330 predictions from Polymarket and Kalshi, including Makhachev vs Garry, Dern vs Robertson and the biggest favourites and underdogs on the card

14 August 2026
 A stylised illustration of a lone podium with two microphones lit by a spotlight beam in a dark empty auditorium, rows of vacant seats visible behind it, rendered in a navy and blue palette.
Politics

Wisconsin's primary was decided by four tenths of a point. The market pricing the general is trading under $2,000 a day.

David Crowley won Wisconsin's Democratic primary by four tenths of a point. Three days on, the Polymarket contract on the general election has traded $1,948 in twenty-four hours.

14 August 2026
 A stylised ballot box on a podium sits against a deep navy background, with multiple paper ballots flying upward and one being inserted into the slot, rendered in flat geometric illustration style.
Politics

The Clacton by-election, Count Binface, and what the Polymarket contract is really asking

A Polymarket contract on Count Binface's Clacton vote share leans toward the 10 to 20 percent band as polls close. Here is what that shape actually measures.

13 August 2026
 A stylised podium with a microphone sits centred against a dark navy background, surrounded by concentric circular rings and speech bubble shapes carrying tally mark symbols in blue tones.
Politics

Polymarket's Trump-in-New-York word market and what it actually measures

Polymarket is running a market on which words Donald Trump will use during his scheduled New York remarks on 14 August 2026. Here is what it tracks and how it resolves.

13 August 2026
 Two stylised MMA fighter silhouettes face off inside a chain-link octagon cage under a single spotlight, one crouched low and one standing tall in a guard stance, dark blue arena seating visible behind them.
Sports

Islam Makhachev is a heavy favourite over Ian Machado Garry on Polymarket ahead of UFC 330

Ahead of UFC 330, Polymarket has Islam Makhachev as a clear favourite against Ian Machado Garry. Here is what the fight contract is actually pricing in.

13 August 2026
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Climate

The Ebola outbreak is on track to be the deadliest ever, and Polymarket's pandemic contract barely moves

Polymarket's Ebola pandemic contract sits heavily on 'No' as of August 2026, even as the WHO says the current outbreak is on track to become the deadliest ever recorded.

13 August 2026
 A stylised dark-navy illustration of a dressage horse and rider performing a collected trot inside a large stadium arena, with an Olympic torch glowing at the top centre and blue accent lines defining the horse and tack.
Sports

Britain's dressage team book their LA28 ticket, and Polymarket's medal-count contract barely notices

Britain's dressage silver at Aachen locks in a spot at LA28. Polymarket's contract on whether the Games hit 177 golds by 25 July 2028 leans firmly yes.

13 August 2026
 A stylised illustration of a baseball player in a blue uniform rounding a base at speed, dust kicking up underfoot, with a baseball rolling nearby and a large stadium in the background, rendered in a deep navy and blue palette.
Sports

What Polymarket's 2026 MLB triples leader market is actually asking

Polymarket's 2026 MLB triples leader contract points hard at one name. Here is what the market is really measuring, and why the tiebreaker rules matter.

13 August 2026
 Two overlapping dark navy cards or folders arranged at an angle, one an envelope with a blue outline flap and the other a flat card bearing a circular blue logo motif, set against a deep navy background.
Politics

Netanyahu rejects Trump's Gaza plan, and the Ukraine peace-deal market barely moves

The White House shrugged off Israel's rejection of its Gaza plan. On Polymarket, the Ukraine peace deal contract still leans firmly against a signed agreement by year-end.

12 August 2026
 A stylised blue and white soccer ball sits on a geometric pitch at the centre of a dark navy stadium, with abstract angular shapes and silhouetted crowd figures on both sides.
Sports

PSG's UEFA Super Cup opener against Aston Villa, and what Polymarket makes of it

Paris Saint-Germain start their treble defence in the UEFA Super Cup against Aston Villa. Polymarket has PSG as clear favourites, but not overwhelmingly so.

12 August 2026
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Sports

Three things prediction markets got right at the 2026 World Cup

What the biggest prediction markets got right at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, from Spain's triumph to Germany's early exit and the USA's home advantage.

12 August 2026
 A stylised S-curve line graph on a dark navy background, showing a white curve descending steeply from upper left to lower right, with small tick marks along the curve and a dotted horizontal reference line.
Culture

Iran's internet blackout contract on Polymarket: what the Cloudflare-anchored ladder is actually measuring

Polymarket's Iran total internet blackout market resolves via Cloudflare Radar bytes-transferred data. Inside the ladder's remaining rungs and what the July leg's settlement means.

12 August 2026