iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

A stylised isometric football stadium at night in deep navy and blue, with four floodlit towers casting beams over a geometric pitch showing goals, penalty areas, centre circle and halfway line.
Sports

Premier League Predictions: What Prediction Markets Expect From the Opening Weekend

Premier League prediction markets rate Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and every opening-weekend fixture ahead of the new season.

21 August 2026
 Stylised illustration of an empty American football stadium at night, viewed from a low sideline angle, with white yard lines and hash marks receding in perspective, a goalpost in the distance, floodlight towers casting pale cones of light, and a deep navy and blue palette.
Sports

Paul Posluszny Exclusive Interview: NFL Predictions, Trevor Lawrence's Path to the Elite Level and His Favourite Linebacker in the Game Today

Former NFL linebacker Paul Posluszny gives his 2026 NFL predictions, backing the Seahawks to repeat as Super Bowl champions and Josh Allen for MVP.

20 August 2026
 A stylised flat-design American football stadium viewed from behind one end zone at night, with yard lines, hash marks, and goalposts at both ends rendered in white on a navy field, four floodlight towers casting geometric light beams, all in a blue and navy palette.
Sports

NFL Prediction Markets: Three Things to Note Ahead of the 2026 Season

What are NFL prediction markets saying ahead of the 2026 season? We analyse the Super Bowl LXI, MVP and playoff markets on Kalshi and Polymarket to find three key trends.

20 August 2026
 Isometric digital illustration of a floodlit futsal arena at night in deep navy and electric blue, with white pitch markings, two goals, a centre circle, and six floodlight towers casting bright cones across the court.
Sports

Premier League Prediction Markets: Five Early Insights Ahead of the 2026/27 Season

Discover what Premier League prediction markets are forecasting for the 2026/27 football season, from the title race and Golden Boot to relegation, managerial changes and the transfer window.

18 August 2026
 A stylised dark navy lectern with an open laptop displaying a blue and white abstract screen, set against a geometric dark blue background with subtle shelf-like shapes.
Politics

The teleprompter operator and what a speech market cannot see

A White House teleprompter operator made over $100,000 on Kalshi speech markets, and his edge was exiting rather than entering. What that says about contracts that resolve in public, and which other classes share the exposure.

17 August 2026
 A stylised smart city skyline rendered in white and blue outlines on a dark navy background, with circuit board patterns, mobile devices, and network node diagrams floating above the buildings.
Tech

What Polymarket's largest-company contract is really measuring on 30 September

A Polymarket contract asks who sits at the top of the corporate world on 30 September 2026. Here is what the market actually resolves on, and why the shape matters.

17 August 2026
 A yellow-green tennis ball arcs over a net on a stylised dark navy court, with abstract geometric shapes in blue, orange, and green overlaid on the court surface.
Sports

Sinner led a top-heavy 2026 US Open winner market. Zverev won it.

Polymarket's 2026 US Open men's singles contract was stacked around one clear favourite. Alexander Zverev, priced third at 12%, won the tournament.

17 August 2026
 Top-down blueprint-style diagram of a semicircular parliamentary chamber, with rows of outlined seats arranged in concentric arcs, two highlighted blue seats at centre, and a single small square object on the floor, all rendered in white line art on a deep navy background.
Politics

Trump's midterm malaise and what Polymarket's Republican Senate seat market is really pricing

A Guardian column argues Trump is sabotaging the midterms. Here is what Polymarket's Republican Senate seat contract shows about how traders are pricing it.

17 August 2026
 A blue trophy cup sits on a pedestal under a spotlight on an empty stage, with a microphone stand beside it and rows of dark empty seats in the background.
Culture

Hacks and the Emmy count contract: what the Astra sweep does and doesn't tell traders

The Astra TV Awards handed hardware to Hacks, The Pitt and Shrinking. Here is what Polymarket's Emmy count contract for Hacks actually measures.

17 August 2026
 A flat vector illustration of an empty theatre stage lit by six hanging blue spotlights, with rows of dark auditorium seats in the foreground and a framed circular portal or screen centred on the stage, all in a deep navy and blue palette.
Culture

Polymarket's Emmy guest actor drama race: what the contract is really measuring

Polymarket's 2026 Emmy Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series contract has six named contenders and no runaway. Here's what the market actually tracks.

17 August 2026
 Four stylised silhouettes of football players in a dark navy stadium, with a blue and white line graph trending upward, a trophy icon at the top centre, and a goal net visible at the right, all in a flat geometric blue palette.
Sports

Rodri's Manchester City exit is agreed, not done, and he has a Polymarket contract to defend

Manchester City have accepted Barcelona's bid for Rodri and a four-year deal is agreed, with the medical still to come. What the Polymarket 2026 Ballon d'Or contract says about his chances of a repeat.

17 August 2026
 A 3D isometric bar chart in navy and bright blue on a dark background, with columns descending steeply from a tall highlighted bar on the left to very short bars trailing to the lower right.
Politics

AOC leads Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee market, but only just

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits narrowly ahead on Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee contract as of 15 August 2026, with Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff tightly bunched behind.

15 August 2026