iPredicta Insights

Editorial analysis,
updated as markets move

Politics, economy, crypto, sports, tech, culture, geopolitics and climate, written by the iPredicta team. Each piece links to the live market on Polymarket or Kalshi so you can act on what you read.

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Economy

A FTSE 100 demotion is about as priceable as an event gets, and no venue lists a contract on it

Entain is expected to leave the FTSE 100 on 2 September. Polymarket and Kalshi both run live index-removal contracts, and neither covers London.

31 August 2026
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Politics

Polymarket's California wealth tax contract asks whether Proposition 40 passes, and passing may not be enough

Polymarket prices California's billionaire wealth tax at about 28%. Proposition 40 is on the ballot, and the contract's text covers measures removed before the election but not one superseded after it.

31 August 2026
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Geopolitics

Polymarket's Machado recognition contract sits at 3%, and the reason is who is already in office

Polymarket prices US recognition of Maria Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader at about 3% before the end of 2026. The resolution bar and the incumbency explain the number.

31 August 2026
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Sports

Milwaukee's grip on the NL Central and what the Polymarket contract is really asking

Polymarket's 2026 NL Central champion market leans heavily toward one team. Here's what the contract measures, and where the interesting questions actually sit.

30 August 2026
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Culture

Ireland picks 'Aontas' for the 2027 Oscars, and Polymarket's nominations board shows its scaffolding

Ireland has sent Damian McCann's Irish-language heist thriller 'Aontas' to the 2027 Oscars. Polymarket's most-nominations board carries 22 legs, 13 of them empty placeholders, and 'Aontas' can win it through the catch-all.

28 August 2026
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Politics

Iceland's EU referendum lands on the ballot, and Polymarket leans against a Yes

Icelanders vote this weekend on reopening EU membership talks. Polymarket traders have swung sharply toward No in the final 24 hours before the ballot.

28 August 2026
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Economy

A prediction market's price is only as tested as its age allows

We measured 1,613 open Polymarket contracts. Turnover concentration falls from a 34.3% median on contracts under a fortnight old to 0.0% on those over six months. Method, limits and wallet checks included.

27 August 2026
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Sports

Football Transfer Predictions: Latest Data on Potential Moves Ahead of Deadline Day

Football transfer predictions from the prediction markets: what Polymarket and Kalshi expect for Enzo Fernandez, Emiliano Martinez, Julian Alvarez, Bradley Barcola and Marcus Rashford before deadline day.

21 August 2026
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Sports

Premier League Predictions: What Prediction Markets Expect From the Opening Weekend

Premier League prediction markets rate Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and every opening-weekend fixture ahead of the new season.

21 August 2026
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Sports

Paul Posluszny Exclusive Interview: NFL Predictions, Trevor Lawrence's Path to the Elite Level and His Favourite Linebacker in the Game Today

Former NFL linebacker Paul Posluszny gives his 2026 NFL predictions, backing the Seahawks to repeat as Super Bowl champions and Josh Allen for MVP.

20 August 2026
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Sports

NFL Prediction Markets: Three Things to Note Ahead of the 2026 Season

What are NFL prediction markets saying ahead of the 2026 season? We analyse the Super Bowl LXI, MVP and playoff markets on Kalshi and Polymarket to find three key trends.

20 August 2026
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Sports

Premier League Prediction Markets: Five Early Insights Ahead of the 2026/27 Season

Discover what Premier League prediction markets are forecasting for the 2026/27 football season, from the title race and Golden Boot to relegation, managerial changes and the transfer window.

18 August 2026